WeatherNC Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Here's the one I'm after.. lol silencer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Well so much for a good soaking rain over much of the area. Mostly under a third of in inch except for a strip in the upslope areas. Am afraid this will be the story of this fall and the winter. Expect to be in exceptional drought by spring here. Conditions possibly much worse than 2007 if the LaNina stays in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 silencer I agree.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Here comes the UL forcing... Wind is 10 fold compared to what to what it was this afternoon, still not much, but 15 mph is better than nothing, Banded line working its way through the coastal plain (eyewall) heading towards the coast. I see no signs of discrete development and organized cells to make me think this is no more than a passing squall line, but given this svr season, even a thunderstorm is a win at this point. valid 11:18pm EST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2049 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1027 PM CST TUE NOV 16 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL-ERN SC...CENTRAL-ERN NC...CENTRAL-ERN VA...SRN MD. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 741... VALID 170427Z - 170630Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 741 CONTINUES. SVR POTENTIAL -- PRIMARILY IN FORM OF DAMAGING GUSTS -- WILL CONTINUE OVER ERN PORTIONS WW...AND MAY SHIFT SOMEWHAT E OR NE OF WW INTO LOWER POTOMAC REGION AND COASTAL PLAIN SWD TO SC. ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO MOVE EWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL PORTIONS SC/NC AND FROM SWRN INTO CENTRAL VA...IMMEDIATELY BEHIND LAST BANDS OF CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS. TSTMS HAVE PRODUCED SEVERAL REPORTS OF TREES DOWN DURING PAST 2 HOURS. MEASURED GUSTS UP TO 58 KT ALSO WERE REPORTED IN APPOMATTOX COUNTY VA AT 331Z...WITH BOWING SEGMENT NOW MOVING NEWD ABOUT 50 KT TOWARD TIDAL POTOMAC REGION. AIR MASS AHEAD OF TSTM BANDS HAS BEEN DESTABILIZING TO AT LEAST MRGL LEVELS FOR CONTINUE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AS LOW-LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION OFFSETS SFC DIABATIC COOLING...WHICH ALSO IS KEEPING LIFTED PARCELS EITHER SFC-BASED OR NEARLY SO IN IMMEDIATE INFLOW REGION. MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ONLY 200-500 J/KG MLCAPE IN NARROW STRIP FROM CENTRAL NC TO CENTRAL/ERN VA. 45-55 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ALONG CORRESPONDING INSTABILITY AXIS. WHILE BUOYANCY GENERALLY WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME AND WITH EWD EXTENT...THIS PROCESS WILL BE GRADUAL ENOUGH THAT SVR POTENTIAL MAY EXTEND SOMEWHAT PAST CURRENT ERN BOUNDS OF WW. PRIND SVR POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT OF WW FROM W-E BEHIND COLD FRONT AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS...AND AS BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS STABILIZES DUE TO COMBINATION OF CAA AND DIABATIC SFC COOLING. ..EDWARDS.. 11/17/2010 ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE... LAT...LON 33238181 35167990 36677932 37557849 38277795 38877656 38297604 37137648 35307800 33827943 33508062 33238181 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I might have the record for this event. Nothing yesterday or last night. Sprinkles this afternoon and evening. All day I've watched showers move by just to the NW and SE of here. Looks like its over and my total......wait for it........0.03". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 FAIL! What a let down here. some gusts 35-40 and that was about it (for about 1 minute). I am waiting for my 40 DBZ shower and that will do it for this event. LOL can't believe I stayed up for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Come on squall line hold together, these can sometimes really mix the winds down pretty well. I can remember several of these type of lines usually in Nov or Mar that put down widespread 50-60mph wind gust----this doesnt appear to be one of them though we might see a 40 outta of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Well, firat day on board and we already have some action. Got the call from Greg Fishel about 15 mins ago that we were in a severe t-storm warning, and woke up to see we are in a tornado watch until 4 am. The bottom just fell out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Well, firat day on board and we already have some action. Got the call from Greg Fishel about 15 mins ago that we were in a severe t-storm warning, and woke up to see we are in a tornado watch until 4 am. The bottom just fell out here. say what... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 say what... Yeah, I know. You have to be careful about severe weather in NC this time of year, though. Seems we have a tornado right before Thanksgiving often in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 slp (990mb) is close to Lake Erie now, not a great set-up for the coastal plain as we would like it crossing the TN-IN boarder about now... Still watching the area of greatest helicity and bulk shear associated with the cold front working east, and an area of greatest instab just off JAX, slowly working west. If I here thunder, this is a win!!! Sad, but take what we can get this time of year and season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Yeah, I know. You have to be careful about severe weather in NC this time of year, though. Seems we have a tornado right before Thanksgiving often in these parts. That tornado watch will be cancelled shortly for Wake county. As soon as the convective line pushes through ,its over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 So far, around .13", which after seeing yesterday's runs, I began to doubt much here. I knew I'd be on the eastern edge of the first round, but expected a steady pouring right now, so far I got grazed to the east...sigh. Another potential good rain here down the tubes. .....but I wouldn't be surprised to see that really develop to my east, with severe in the piedmont to coast. and thats pecisely what happened....hardly more than a trace of rain this event here. Looks like the squall line began developing just as it exited this area, again. Seen this so many times already this year, and of course the training has occurred several times to my immediate west. The Summer convection missed me to the east all Summer, the west, north and even south around GSP of all places I dont know when it will really rain here again, it takes a miracle I think. I'm around 30" to 31" for the year, which is another extreme drought year unless December floods out...this time its very local, stretching from northern Spartanburg to right around my location to possibly central Gaston Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 and thats pecisely what happened....hardly more than a trace of rain this event here. Looks like the squall line began developing just as it exited this area, again. Seen this so many times already this year, and of course the training has occurred several times to my immediate west. The Summer convection missed me to the east all Summer, the west, north and even south around GSP of all places I dont know when it will really rain here again, it takes a miracle I think. I'm around 30" to 31" for the year, which is another extreme drought year unless December floods out...this time its very local, stretching from northern Spartanburg to right around my location to possibly central Gaston Co. Yeah. I was really hoping to get in on SOMETHING as well to come through here, but as luck would have it, not even so much as a heavy passing shower arrived. As you stated, December might be our last resort for having hope to get some much beneficial rainfall to occur. I'm betting that it's going to take a storm system that doesn't gyp local areas like ours and we would be fine. I know that for my location (Western Gaston Co. near 321 going south) the rain will fall heavily all around me but never for my area. It really saddens me because the training of the rain and storms looked kinda similar to the previous event (I noticed some similarity with cells hitting certain areas). Oh well. At least we can look forward to a stormier pattern to set up sometime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 and thats pecisely what happened....hardly more than a trace of rain this event here. Looks like the squall line began developing just as it exited this area, again. Seen this so many times already this year, and of course the training has occurred several times to my immediate west. The Summer convection missed me to the east all Summer, the west, north and even south around GSP of all places I dont know when it will really rain here again, it takes a miracle I think. I'm around 30" to 31" for the year, which is another extreme drought year unless December floods out...this time its very local, stretching from northern Spartanburg to right around my location to possibly central Gaston Co. It does seem this area has been very unlucky in terms of rain this year. A whopping 0.03" at my place for the event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Here's the one I'm after.. lol Just need the right kind of weather !!!! I do know where you hunt! Buddy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Sorry for the folks who didn't get as much as they expected out of this event. I got about 2" after all was said and done, not as much as was forecast but still a nice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I have a hunch this might be one of the occasions where the GFS could outperform the Euro in the medium range. Obviously there is no guarantee that this is the case this time, but to me, this looks right in the wheelhouse of one of the Euro's biases. Check out the two images below, valid at 0z next Friday...Euro is first, GFS is second. This could very well be a case where the Euro is holding too much energy back into the desert southwest, and thus, the trough progresses east much more slowly than on the GFS. If you look at the day 8-10 mean, both the models have a weakness that extends back into the eastern Pacific, so the Euro idea might have merit. However, this is one case where I would side mroe with the GFS. FWIW, the 0z Canadian is more in line with the GFS timing as well. I get in to some of this in my video for today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Yep 00z Euro and GFS are night and day. GFS gives us some flurries next Saturday with the cold air starting to settling in while the Euro still holds all that cold air well to the west and north. Should be interesting to see who wins out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Ended up with .15" total yesterday. Some pretty wild winds with the squall line about 12:30ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Im sure gfs won't win, wish it would but doubt it will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 check out my accu-weather GFS forecast ......... :snowman:lol 42/29Sunday 42/32Monday 47/28Tuesday 43/30Wednesday 45/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 check out my accu-weather GFS forecast ......... :snowman:lol 42/29Sunday 42/32Monday 47/28Tuesday 43/30Wednesday 45/19 They have snow in my area forecast, too bad it probably will not happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 They have snow in my area forecast, too bad it probably will not happen! Accu-sux weather forecasting is horrible. I only look at it to get a good laugh. I can't remember the last time the forecast accuweather had for my area was correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Accu-sux weather forecasting is horrible. I only look at it to get a good laugh. I can't remember the last time the forecast accuweather had for my area was correct. They are basing the long range on the GFS, no one can do that as you know. I don't like them anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Snow around the end of the month wouldn't surprise me. Anytime after the 28th the cold air will be wide open down this way. I wouldn't throw out that inAccuwx completely. I don't find them correct very often but they may be onto something. One thing they have been somewhat-correct about in my area is long-term winter weather. BTW: is my avatar showing? Just wondering. Edit: I am basing this off the fact the GFS is being VERY consistant with cold air and generally consistant with timing of the Thanksgiving-ish system and the one after it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperNET Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Ended up with .15" total yesterday. Some pretty wild winds with the squall line about 12:30ish. Same here....although I picked up .20 at home and .31 at the office. We were rocking and rolling about 9:30-10:00 good t-storms just missed Monroe to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Snow around the end of the month wouldn't surprise me. Anytime after the 28th the cold air will be wide open down this way. I wouldn't throw out that inAccuwx completely. I don't find them correct very often but they may be onto something. One thing they have been somewhat-correct about in my area is long-term winter weather. BTW: is my avatar showing? Just wondering. Edit: I am basing this off the fact the GFS is being VERY consistant with cold air and generally consistant with timing of the Thanksgiving-ish system and the one after it. No avatar, just a red X Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Ended up with 0.77" from the mini rain event, even after the rock um sock em thunderstorms that rolled through last night (around 7:30pm). Went to open my door to check it out and wham, it blew the door from my hand and against the frame! Needless to say I was enjoying the high wind (even though it lasted for 10 minutes at best). Now all focus is toward next week. Its funny how we get upset and bored with beautiful wx for long stretches on end but man I want some snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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