Amos83 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Don't remind me . What a disaster that was. We had that 3 inches of snow with an inch and a half of sleet which packed the snow down to about two inches. Then we had the epic day of snow all freaking day just to melt on impact. I think the only descent snow we got I was in Vegas. Burger, I think this year will be our year. I'm anxious to see how the pattern unfolds over the next 3 weeks so we will have an idea how the rest of the winter will unfold. Unfotunately when I say "this will be our year" it wont compare to how well others did last year. Heck I'll take anything winter wants to throw my way as long as it's not 33/rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Burger, I think this year will be our year. I'm anxious to see how the pattern unfolds over the next 3 weeks so we will have an idea how the rest of the winter will unfold. Unfotunately when I say "this will be our year" it wont compare to how well others did last year. Heck I'll take anything winter wants to throw my way as long as it's not 33/rain! Hush you As hot and dry as this summer has been, I'll enjoy my 33/rain any chance I can get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Burger, I think this year will be our year. I'm anxious to see how the pattern unfolds over the next 3 weeks so we will have an idea how the rest of the winter will unfold. Unfotunately when I say "this will be our year" it wont compare to how well others did last year. Heck I'll take anything winter wants to throw my way as long as it's not 33/rain! Rumor is this Winter will end after Dec, so you better get, while the getting is good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Hush you As hot and dry as this summer has been, I'll enjoy my 33/rain any chance I can get LOL, I agree..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Rumor is this Winter will end after Dec, so you better get, while the getting is good... See my sig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 I just have a very hard time believing that Winter will end after December???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Rumor is this Winter will end after Dec, so you better get, while the getting is good... Not if the CFS has anything to say about it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 I just have a very hard time believing that Winter will end after December???? Actually it starts in Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Rumor is this Winter will end after Dec, so you better get, while the getting is good... Yeah I know what the rumors are but I like to wait and see exactly how the pattern starts to shape up before I give up on winter. I think by the end of the first full week of December we should have a good idea about what to expect this year. That's just my 2 cents.... no real weather science behind my gut feeling. The weather likes to go in cycles and patterns and I look for short term patterns to get a handle on what to expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 I just have a very hard time believing that Winter will end after December???? A lot of signs and forecasts pointing towards a warm dry Jan and Feb..hence the "warmer and drier than average" winter for the southeast. Right now I'd say December and early March are our best shots the way I read it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 16, 2010 Author Share Posted November 16, 2010 It funny because almost at this exact time last year both the GFS and the Euro was saying a big cool down was coming right around or just after Thanksgiving but it never really came. I remember many people, including me, were hyped about the first week of December as being significant but as it got closer the models kept delaying. Hopefully this year the above mentioned time frame actually becomes reality. I'd love to do some Black Friday shopping in cold weather to get me in the mood for Christmas...... Love the 12z Euro too.... it would be too good to be true if it worked out exactly as it is depicting with that MONSTER high clocking everything up. One of these winters we will get that epic blocking pattern to take shape. Just have to wait it out. I remember last Thanksgiving very well. The NWS had just issued a rather benign Winter outlook, and others issued theirs, and suddenly right around Thanksgiving the pattern began to really change and it set in for Winter. On Thanksgiving Day, driving home from my parents a front was coming through, and the temps. plummetted. By nightfall, the rain here changed and mixed with sleet and snow which was unexpected. From then on out, it was really cold and stormy for the most part, and where I was just missed out by a few miles a truly epic Winter. Then of course the big December 18 storm, one of many for the Eastern US. I agree. Having a high like the one GFS is predicting near the end of this month will really help usher in the colder air down here and bank up against the Apps. Last I checked, it was forecast to be around 1030mb, with the 540 diving well south. If you don't mind my asking, what do you think the projected highs and lows would be in the case of that troughing scenario for the Eastern Conus, and what is your thought on how strong the 50/50 low could get? its too early to comment really. The overall pattern looks like a flat trough to our west around Thanksgivng, with eventually stalling of that front. Whether or not damming occurs after Thanksgiving is still hard to say, but the PNA ridge and Greenland ridging is there, so eventually a few days later it may happen, unless we lose the PNA ridge out west, which is possible. Its a bad time for the models I think, but the Greenland ridge and -NAO are probably legit, so if we get that, then someone will eventually end up with a winter type scenario. Could be Virginia or on the western side of the Apps, its too far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Rumor is this Winter will end after Dec, so you better get, while the getting is good... Gotta feeling there gonna be lots of warm cloudy days with SW winds come Jan and Feb which is ok. The upside is there will be a smattering of cold shots in there somewhere and all we need is for one of them to spawn a GOM low and kick it off the east coast. What you think our chances of having 3 winters in a row with a 6ish" event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Of course it is too early to tell, but it would be wonderful to get some snow in December. I just don't want a repeat of last winter, where we had the monster cold but little snow to show for it. If it isn't going to snow, I'd rather the temps stay mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Honestly, I would be worried if the CFS was showing cold winter over my area. ie (if I was in the SE) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 384 out... Lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 So far the power has gone out 2 times, both about 1 hour long, pitiful for a non event. Have about .80 so far and that is fine by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 So far the power has gone out 2 times, both about 1 hour long, pitiful for a non event. Have about .80 so far and that is fine by me. I'm sitting at .20 so far today I got my sprinkles...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 The AL/MS line is really shaping up better now with some storms/heavy rain showers out in front of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Burger, I think this year will be our year. I'm anxious to see how the pattern unfolds over the next 3 weeks so we will have an idea how the rest of the winter will unfold. Unfotunately when I say "this will be our year" it wont compare to how well others did last year. Heck I'll take anything winter wants to throw my way as long as it's not 33/rain! Haha optimist to the end. I'm right there with you this year has gotta be our year. Hell all it takes is one big event like that March event 2 years ago! Hopefully we can get that in December. I'm fine with warm months if we get a few sets of cold days with snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 384 out... Lock it up. It also showed something around the 27th, probably just eye candy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 I'm sitting at .20 so far today I got my sprinkles...lol We just have to keep a running total; maybe more later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Not excited about the chance for SVR in the Piedmont and Coastal Plain tonight... Granted, discrete cells are now firing with the large scale ascent forcing associated with the deepening surface low, but instability is almost non-existent. Watching an area of ML Capes around 500 working there way through central GA up into TN, also accompanied by the area of greatest effective bulk shear. Looking like a case of the Carolina split as the best UL dynamics stay west as the area of most instability is east. I could be wrong, and maybe so, but not putting much faith in this SLGT hatch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Not excited about the chance for SVR in the Piedmont and Coastal Plain tonight... Granted, discrete cells are now firing with the large scale ascent forcing associated with the deepening surface low, but instability is almost non-existent. Watching an area of ML Capes around 500 working there way through central GA up into TN, also accompanied by the area of greatest effective bulk shear. Looking like a case of the Carolina split as the best UL dynamics stay west as the area of most instability is east. I could be wrong, and maybe so, but not putting much faith in this SLGT hatch... that about covers it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 that about covers it Thanks Ron, I could be wrong though, have many times before, but what happened to the stiff 10-20mph WAA today via a SW wind, did not happen. Just went outside and the air is stable, period. Van's Hardware is my seed source by the way... Currently running a 2:1:1 mixture of Rye Grass, Crimson Red Clover, and 7-top Turnips. 20 pounds of the mixture covers about 10k sqft, and like you, I do localized plots, about said area. I base those plots on soil conditions-sun light and activity through the off-season. Planting should be done in Sept prior to a rain, and in clear areas where there is no competition from winter weeds, etc... I am fortunate to hunt on my own land, and have them coming in by the droves... Had 7 out there this morning and am starting to run into an issue when I take the doberman out to potty at night, as she senses it and runs for the back. Have not taken one this year, but have a nice 7 or 9 pt that we have seen and he will be going down upon the next encounter. Also wanting to get into Bobcat (maybe Bear) hunting as I see the cats at-least once a week and have not seen Black Bear yet, but have definitive evidence they are here based on numerous tracks (Moma and Cubs) this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Sort of a "personal" post - thinking about going to the Vogel/Winfield area for Turkey week, but the models look wet, with some freezing rain in Atlanta. Realizing we're a week out, is this realistic: You all are great, and I learn a lot from the SE folks. This time, I'm just trying to "learn" whether (pun) to plan on coming up, or staying here at 80º. Thanks in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Thanks Ron, I could be wrong though, have many times before, but what happened to the stiff 10-20mph WAA today via a SW wind, did not happen. Just went outside and the air is stable, period. Van's Hardware is my seed source by the way... Currently running a 2:1:1 mixture of Rye Grass, Crimson Red Clover, and 7-top Turnips. 20 pounds of the mixture covers about 10k sqft, and like you, I do localized plots, about said area. I base those plots on soil conditions-sun light and activity through the off-season. Planting should be done in Sept prior to a rain, and in clear areas where there is no competition from winter weeds, etc... I am fortunate to hunt on my own land, and have them coming in by the droves... Had 7 out there this morning and am starting to run into an issue when I take the doberman out to potty at night, as she senses it and runs for the back. Have not taken one this year, but have a nice 7 or 9 pt that we have seen and he will be going down upon the next encounter. Also wanting to get into Bobcat (maybe Bear) hunting as I see the cats at-least once a week and have not seen Black Bear yet, but have definitive evidence they are here based on numerous tracks (Moma and Cubs) this summer. Saw what can only be described as a monster buck in the field just up 43 out of Fakland, ( and I mean right there not a mile down the road), he was crazy heavy and tall a true beast. Sadly we saw a roadkill deer the next day that was very big in the body and someone had cut off the top of his head so we fear he may have been ran over...... Took the boy with me the other day and shot a spike/cowhorn which I normally wouldnt do but he was all excited to go so I did Back OT now I agree that the chances of any real severe weather is waning although a narrow squall line could be all we need to get some decent winds to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Saw what can only be described as a monster buck in the field just up 43 out of Fakland, ( and I mean right there not a mile down the road), he was crazy heavy and tall a true beast. Sadly we saw a roadkill deer the next day that was very big in the body and someone had cut off the top of his head so we fear he may have been ran over...... Took the boy with me the other day and shot a spike/cowhorn which I normally wouldnt do but he was all excited to go so I did Back OT now I agree that the chances of any real severe weather is waning although a narrow squall line could be all we need to get some decent winds to the surface. I have seen numerous kills this Fall in the back and forth between Falkland Elementary... We had parent teacher conferences last week and my wife was looking at me wondering why I was going 35 mph and I told her it was because I did not want a deer to do sig damage to the car if one should bolt across the road. They are out big-time. I have actually had a couple red hawks working through and I swear they are on the deer, as well as rabbits. I set my stand up in a large tulip tree, about 10' up and with 3 lanes (about 200yds each) towards the most trafficked areas I planted. Firing a 300 savage, circa 1940's from my Grandfather, so it should be no problem dropping him given a shot center mass, maybe a little high on the neck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 I have seen numerous kills this Fall in the back and forth between Falkland Elementary... We had parent teacher conferences last week and my wife was looking at me wondering why I was going 35 mph and I told her it was because I did not want a deer to do sig damage to the car if one should bolt across the road. They are out big-time. I have actually had a couple red hawks working through and I swear they are on the deer, as well as rabbits. I set my stand up in a large tulip tree, about 10' up and with 3 lanes (about 200yds each) towards the most trafficked areas I planted. Firing a 300 savage, circa 1940's from my Grandfather, so it should be no problem dropping him given a shot center mass, maybe a little high on the neck. Been trying to figure this guy out he has managed to avoid us so far but I feel his days are numbered....no idea why the pic is so small???? Need it cloudy this weekend full moon coming up and they move a lot at night and not much during the day when its bright out all night. Weather actually has a huge role in deer hunting and hunting in general. Most hunters are by default more weather savvy than most average folks..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Been trying to figure this guy out he has managed to avoid us so far but I feel his days are numbered Need it cloudy this weekend full moon coming up and they move a lot at night and not much during the day when its bright out all night. Weather actually has a huge role in deer hunting and hunting in general. Most hunters are by default more weather savvy than most average folks..... yeah, weather is the obvious factor from what I have seen... They move at night, period, but you want to get them into an area where they are comfortable (as evidenced by routine bedding and rubs in the fall), and feeding nearby at night currently. Best bet is to be at your spot 2 hours before sun-up and just wait, if nothing happens by 8, better to pack it up and go home as the chances are sig decreased. Since I hunt out here in the "Country," I can apply some un-orthodox methods, hush, hush, that my Grandpa taught me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Nice tstorm, hail and heavy rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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