Boreal Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 does anyone have maps for the HRRR? Imo it was very accurate with the last storm the HRW ARW. But these are the 0z runs, and are at the models limit--48 hours, so FWIW 850's Precip: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 One of our mets @ my tv station has us going to rain on wednesday with high of 38. For Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. that would be great news.. whats your thoughts Jim? gfs and nam 6z suface don't show that ... lets see what 12z does for use.. nam running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 12z nam sounding at 30hr looks warmer at surface for abe ... maybe 32f? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Boston even gets hit hard with the initial overrunning precip. I wouldn't be surprised to see similar amounts in Chicago and Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 12z nam sounding at 30hr looks warmer at surface for abe ... maybe 32f? same for 33hr edit.. drops below 32f at 36hr.. ruh roh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenavp Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 that would be great news.. whats your thoughts Jim? gfs and nam 6z suface don't show that ... lets see what 12z does for use.. nam running Makes sense especially for the Wyoming Valley. Typically in these events the valley cities end up warmer than even ABE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Boston even gets hit hard with the initial overrunning precip. I wouldn't be surprised to see similar amounts in Chicago and Boston. Not really. They get .50" of precip. Jackpot is Western Connecticut with .75", Western Mass and Eastern NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 same for 33hr edit.. drops below 32f at 36hr.. ruh roh this map v. sounding issue has probably been discussed before, but what a difference that sounding is from this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM colder than 00z at 42 but slightly warmer than 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 this map v. sounding issue has probably been discussed before, but what a difference that sounding is from this: well below 32f at surface for abe at hr42 with heavier precip coming in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hour 45 shows an ice threat even just north of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Down to 7 degrees this morning in Spring Mount. It will be interesting to see when we get to 32+ degrees on Wednesday. My guess regarding upper Montgomery County in PA... -Light snow after midnight tonight through early afternoon Tuesday with about 2 to 3 inches accumulation -Light snow changes to light sleet by 2 PM Tuesday and then to light freezing rain by 7 PM...only a coating or so of sleet -Light/spotty freezing rain Tuesday night becomes heavier by 3 AM Wednesday -Freezing rain Wednesday morning changes to plain rain by 9 or 10 AM My guess is surface temps get close to 32 on Tuesday afternoon, but then drop back to the upper 20's during the "lull" on Tuesday evening and are slow to rise until after daybreak on Wednesday. Tuesday morning and evening rush hours shouldn't be too bad, but the Wednesday morning commute could be real bad. Best thing would be to wait until later in the morning Wednesday to travel, when temps go above freezing. We probably don't break 40 degrees on Wednesday afternoon (I'll say a high temp of 37). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 well below 32f at suface for abe at hr42 with heavier precip coming in Yip--this looks like it could be a fairly extreme solution for ice. I note too though that 850's are bit colder than the 0z run as well, possibly due to slower onset. (Still tenuously holding out for the possibility of more snow, but as modeled, not gonna happen.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wow. HUGE ice storm on the NAM, guys. If that freezing line hold on for the next frame, just amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wow. HUGE ice storm on the NAM, guys. If that freezing line hold on for the next frame, just amazing. it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Holy. Crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Debilitating ice in PA and NW NJ through 54. Absolutely crippling storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The trends here are pretty interesting. CAD showing up. High pressure edging further south than Oz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 surface at 51hr above 32f for abe according to 12z nam sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 surface at 51hr above 32f for abe according to 12z nam sounding Still 48 hours out and trending colder. This could be an epic ice storm for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 precip out at hr57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Total QPF for NAM here through h57 is similar to the 9Z SREF for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 surface at 51hr above 32f for abe according to 12z nam sounding For purposes of comparison. What to believe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The 48 image is absolutely rediculous, w/ respect to precip rates and types.... everykind of precip possible will fall during this event and heavy fill bathtubs....check get a good board game.....check candles....check duct tape....check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The 48 image is absolutely rediculous, w/ respect to precip rates and types.... everykind of precip possible will fall during this event and heavy fill bathtubs....check get a good board game.....check candles....check duct tape....check ...whats the duct tape for? Just curios. The rest I have on my list too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 surface at 51hr above 32f for abe according to 12z nam sounding abe is below freezing the whole event. HR 51they have a surface temp -1c...According to nam abe is mainly sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 ...whats the duct tape for? Just curios. The rest I have on my list too. Always be prepared with duct tape....always you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 12z Nam would keep it mainly snow and sleet here in Hazleton.. Based on what I can see on my phone.. Any opinions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 abe is below freezing the whole event. HR 51they have a surface temp -1c...According to nam abe is mainly sleet Tom, I'd take that forecast in a heartbeat. Sleet is infinitely better than zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 ...whats the duct tape for? Just curios. The rest I have on my list too. the zombies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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