_AR_ Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Woke up and watched the weather on several local channels this morning. Oddly, Wilkes-Barre/Scranton stations did not mention a significant ice event and even mentioned probably changing over to plain rain in the afternoon Wed, while Philly stations reported more on the ice threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 6z NAM is colder than 18z NAM....32 line does not break PTW or DYL during run. Pretty nasty ice event even in the upper burbs. It barely reaches TTN on this run. Now I'm starting to get really nervous for the people back home... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 HPC maps from this morning: Day 2 snow Day 2 ice Day 3 ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It barely reaches TTN on this run. Now I'm starting to get really nervous for the people back home... People will be caught off guard if it gets as bad as some of us think. Local news is just mentioning "1-3 snow to mix/ice to maybe rain back to snow". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Meteograms from 6Z runs: PHL ABE AVP So even splitting between the NAM and GFS now looks like a good probability of a widespread major ice event.The NAM looks to save northern sections by prolonging snow and sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It barely reaches TTN on this run. Now I'm starting to get really nervous for the people back home... analog Jan 1994 That was a great one around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Fwiw, the PV and HP are really overachieving already. Fairly large temp gradient also. Left home in Warminster PA and temp was 12F...got to work in Wayne/Devon, PA and we're at 21F here. The valleys North of the PA Turnpike are holding dense cold air like molasses this morning. Going to be tough to scour that out of here. Starting to become very concerned about Tuesday and early wednesday now. Going to hunker down tonight but not before getting candle, batteries, and lots of non-perishables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It barely reaches TTN on this run. Now I'm starting to get really nervous for the people back home... when you get nervous, you make me nervous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 06z GFS, snow saves the day in the far north VS. 06z NAM - Sleet fest saves the northern zones but central sections get hit hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 10 in Tamaqua and 6 over here near Port Carbon where I load coal so the cold air is here. I hope that we end up with more sleet and snow than freezing rain. No matter what though, I think this is going to be memorable storm for a lot of folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I must admit to a temptation to try and get home for this given the icing potential, but I'm out of time already... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It barely reaches TTN on this run. Now I'm starting to get really nervous for the people back home... when you get nervous, you make me nervous My sentiments, exactly. Ray - do you think there will be any freezing rain before Tuesday evening? We have an event at work all day Tuesday (Kenilworth, Union County) and I'd like to be able to at least say the worst we'll see is light to moderate snow/sleet, as per the NWS (2-4" forecast), but not ZR until later. 2-4" of snow can be dealt with, especially since it won't be prolonged heavy snow, meaning at least the main highways will probably be in decent shape (not perfect, but hopefully not a mess); ZR would be another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I won't lie...you kind of scared me. Not trying to scare anyone. Just plan a bit. You need a heat source, food source, water, candles and several days supply as driving out of an area might be impossible post storm....48hrs+. Here are two quick pics from the storm in 2005. I forgot it was that long ago....feels like a few years. lol This first one gives you an idea of the topped trees yet to fall.....along with what has come down. Note this is after some clean up. You can see the ice on the ground.....next pic will show that better... Here is the walking on ice cubes picture.......this is on top of the accumulation from the event....came from the winds arriving and everything in the trees breaking up. This was about 4 days after the storm......still no power when I arrived..as mentioned earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 6.8 degrees in NW Chester County this morning with 16 inches of snow on the ground. Got a feeling it's going to be tough to get above freezing before late Wednesday around here. Gas for the generator -- check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Low just a couple miles away here was only 15.0....those lower spots really radiated last night 6.8 degrees in NW Chester County this morning with 16 inches of snow on the ground. Got a feeling it's going to be tough to get above freezing before late Wednesday around here. Gas for the generator -- check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Latest Wxsim program with 6z data for NW Chesco (current snow depth at19.0") Light snow by 1030pm temp 24.7 Mod snow by 5am temp 24.4 Snow to mix of IP/ZR by 2pm - total snow 3 or 4" ZR gets steady by 130am Wed morning....between then and 830am over 0.50" of liquid falls with the temp around 30 degrees Temps rise above freezing by 830am NWS has my area on the point and click at 2 to 5" of snow before the ice Paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 had 9f at 6:30am.. weather bug is at 5f currently. have gas for generator. let's hope this won't be devastating for anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Latest Wxsim program with 6z data for NW Chesco (current snow depth at19.0") Light snow by 1030pm temp 24.7 Mod snow by 5am temp 24.4 Snow to mix of IP/ZR by 2pm - total snow 3 or 4" ZR gets steady by 130am Wed morning....between then and 830am over 0.50" of liquid falls with the temp around 30 degrees Temps rise above freezing by 830am NWS has my area on the point and click at 2 to 5" of snow before the ice Paul thanks paul. let's hope the bold happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Temps this morning make me nervous even in Delco. The temps were anywhere from 14 to 10 degrees on my short 15 minute commute to work from near Brookhaven to Media when the NWS was showing 24 at PHL airport. The models have so much trouble handling this much cold air and I think we'll see this cold trend continue as the players are on the field for better sampling. I think anywhere N and W of the city is game for a major ice storm --- perhaps worse than what is currently depicted given these cold, cold temperatures. Oh boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 If the forecast for .75+ inches of ice holds for the lake Harmony area...Aharts is going to be one heck of a busy place today. Currently 10 degrees on what appears to be a beautiful morning...looking out over boulder lake....past Towamensing Trails lake, Past Penns Peak and all the way to the Blues back by the Lehigh Tunnel near Jim Thorpe PA. On a clear morning....20+ visibility easy. I need to refresh the web cam there....been about 5 years and it is shot....time to go HD!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 My sentiments, exactly. Ray - do you think there will be any freezing rain before Tuesday evening? We have an event at work all day Tuesday (Kenilworth, Union County) and I'd like to be able to at least say the worst we'll see is light to moderate snow/sleet, as per the NWS (2-4" forecast), but not ZR until later. 2-4" of snow can be dealt with, especially since it won't be prolonged heavy snow, meaning at least the main highways will probably be in decent shape (not perfect, but hopefully not a mess); ZR would be another story. The NAM seemed to be sending the warm air aloft pretty fast, so yeah I'm worried that it goes to freezing rain pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Temps this morning make me nervous even in Delco. The temps were anywhere from 14 to 10 degrees on my short 15 minute commute to work from near Brookhaven to Media when the NWS was showing 24 at PHL airport. The models have so much trouble handling this much cold air and I think we'll see this cold trend continue as the players are on the field for better sampling. I think anywhere N and W of the city is game for a major ice storm --- perhaps worse than what is currently depicted given these cold, cold temperatures. Oh boy. Agreed. The last storm that was supposed to turn over to rain a few weeks ago here never turned over at all. And we stayed below freezing the entire event. Can easily see that happening again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 looks like 6z nam sounding surface goes above 32 around 60hr for abe but thats after precip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Seems like the tendency on the NAM is to keep the warm layer from dominating and thickening and hold more IP in the LV. Very curious to see what the hi-res models are going to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 it has trended a little later each time....we shall see. Fortunately I have an automatic propane generator that kicks in about 10 secs after we lose power...which happens pretty often in my very rural neck of the woods. I also kind of think if temps are above 30 and during daylight it may not be that bad especially on treated surfaces. Stay safe Paul thanks paul. let's hope the bold happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 One of our mets @ my tv station has us going to rain on wednesday with high of 38. For Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 9z SREF has a lot of moisture in Philly before 2m temps go above 0.... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/09/images/sref_x06_054s.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/09/images/sref_b2m_054s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delaware Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 does anyone have maps for the HRRR? Imo it was very accurate with the last storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Low of 9 here this morning (shocked it got that low). 6z NAM looks nasty, even this far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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