Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 As I noted earlier, GFS is probably too warm at the surface and underdoing CAD as usual. Unless I'm not seeing something out of the ordinary here. GFS looks fine to me based on the track. GFS tracks the surface low right through OH and then redevelops in PA. NAM redevelops the low just to the SE of the area and off the coast. That's your difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS looks fine to me based on the track. GFS tracks the surface low right through OH and then redevelops in PA. NAM redevelops the low just to the SE of the area and off the coast. That's your difference. Yeah, looking again GFS is a bit further north with the low. Still think there would be a bit more CAD though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS looks fine to me based on the track. GFS tracks the surface low right through OH and then redevelops in PA. NAM redevelops the low just to the SE of the area and off the coast. That's your difference. also, look at the tracks both models take. The gfs is way more robust with it than the nam. It actually gets captured and slows everything down. While the nam just moves right along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm expecting things to change again with the 6z models...for the worse or the better. Seems as though the models are still not in good agreement on alot of small scale factors leading to significant yet small differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm expecting things to change again with the 6z models...for the worse or the better. Seems as though the models are still not in good agreement on alot of small scale factors leading to significant yet small differences. i wouldn't be surprised if the 6z nam comes in a lot colder. It seems like, as i noted after the 18z run, thats the off hr runs are a lot colder than the 0z and 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS looks fine to me based on the track. GFS tracks the surface low right through OH and then redevelops in PA. NAM redevelops the low just to the SE of the area and off the coast. That's your difference. AR does have a point though that the GFS will under do CAD, compared to the NAM, while yes they are showing different evolution for storm track, intesnsity and speed. The GFS still has the lower res and will not show CAD to the effect that it will bear in reality. You have a 1050 high coming behind this system and while it is displaced to the west, a high that strong will bleed over the top and CAD will take place and it is always undersestimated by models, my bet is WAA is underdone and CAD is underdone. That layer of warmth will be larger than shown and a lot of people hoping to be saved by having sleet vs freezing rain will see more of the latter than the former. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 the way i look at it, i know im going to rain down here. As long as its a cold rain and i have some snow pack left i will be happy. Then hopefully next weekend's storm can materialize to rejuvenate it some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 the way i look at it, i know im going to rain down here. As long as its a cold rain and i have some snow pack left i will be happy. Then hopefully next weekend's storm can materialize to rejuvenate it some more. We'll probably go to rain at some point Wed., but when is the question. And how much ice has accumulated, especially in the suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 the way i look at it, i know im going to rain down here. As long as its a cold rain and i have some snow pack left i will be happy. Then hopefully next weekend's storm can materialize to rejuvenate it some more. Even with the cold rain we go back to a deep freeze fast. The snow pack will be like concrete and this may ironically aid in preserving it longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 the way i look at it, i know im going to rain down here. As long as its a cold rain and i have some snow pack left i will be happy. Then hopefully next weekend's storm can materialize to rejuvenate it some more. on the one hand I don't like rain, on the other I don't feel like shoveling if it were to be snow...i was hoping for a wound up MI track with no redevelopment that way we get some overrunning mix and then cold front rain with precip totals half of what they are now...oh well what can you do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 agreed tom, it kind of sucks to have a storm mode and know we arent going to be part of it, but we had a good one last week! i say this storm is 90 percent rain for our respective locations. the way i look at it, i know im going to rain down here. As long as its a cold rain and i have some snow pack left i will be happy. Then hopefully next weekend's storm can materialize to rejuvenate it some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 agreed tom, it kind of sucks to have a storm mode and know we arent going to be part of it, but we had a good one last week! i say this storm is 90 percent rain for our respective locations. We have to be careful about that.. if the NAM is right there could be problems. I don't want people caught off guard again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 agreed tom, it kind of sucks to have a storm mode and know we arent going to be part of it, but we had a good one last week! i say this storm is 90 percent rain for our respective locations. I wouldnt say 90% of the time. Maybe 90% of the qpf.. if the nam is even close to verifying, .3" of ice is pretty significant and can impact the population greatly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 by you very different than here in the city i agree there could still be some problems in your area. We have to be careful about that.. if the NAM is right there could be problems. I don't want people caught off guard again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 We have to be careful about that.. if the NAM is right there could be problems. I don't want people caught off guard again. There's a WSW 2 days in advance, there's no reason for anyone to get caught off guard. If they do, it's they're own fault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 There's a WSW 2 days in advance, there's no reason for anyone to get caught off guard. If they do, it's they're own fault. I'm glad Mt. Holly is taking the cautious route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 might as well do the euro, for the people who are interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Thanks, tombo. I'm very interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 so far through hr 18 stronger high pressure in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 might as well do the euro, for the people who are interested. Roll it. The LV/NWNJ/NE/CPA areas are still in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Roll it. The LV/NWNJ/NE/CPA areas are still in this. Even down here in SE PA, we're still in this, at least in terms of a Winter Storm Watch for a few inches of snow followed by some (perhaps) serious ice accretion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 hr 30 has lgt precip .01-.1 through the region...with the the 850 line from lewes to dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 hr 36 has .01-.1 for the whole region ..850s from acy to ilg to mdt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 For anyone thats interested, the top two analogs are 2/13/07 (shown up quite a bit today) and the storm which led the way for 96. Both had big time snowfall for the interior with lots of ice for the rest of us. #13 is PDII which has shown up quite frequently today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 hr 42 has a sub 1000 low in eastern ark... .1-.25 from dyl to ptw to mdt line north...850 line ipt to abe to nyc...frz line mdt to ptw to dyl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 hr 48 has a sub 996 low in se missouri... .01-.1 precip for everyone... frz line matawan to ttn to norristown to mdt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 hr 42 has a sub 1000 low in eastern ark... .1-.25 from dyl to ptw to mdt line north...850 line ipt to abe to nyc...frz line mdt to ptw to dyl Interesting lay out there. How does the HP look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 hr 54 sub 996 low is sw inidiana.... .01-.1 for everyone... heavier precip coming into central pa...frz line mdt to lns to ilg then up i95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 hr 60 .elongated sub 1004 low over indiana to ohio.... .25-.5 for everyone frz line just north of mdt to phl then right up i95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 hr 60 .elongated sub 1004 low over indiana to ohio.... .25-.5 for everyone frz line just north of mdt to phl then right up i95 Sounds like the NAM solution...weakens the low significantly as it heads north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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