_AR_ Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 66hr looks above 32 for abe I wouldn't bet on it given CAD climatology It is borderline, but most precip has fallen anyway Then past 72 they are already crashing SE, freezing everything in place: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 66hr looks above 32 for abe 72hr still above 32 for abe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 i was looking at nam sounding via twister Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoD Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This is kind of interesting. What are your feelings? http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/prometweatherblogs/12/2/4275/Models-Playing-Catch-Up D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I wouldn't bet on it given CAD climatology It is borderline, but most precip has fallen anyway Then past 72 they are already crashing SE, freezing everything in place: Too close for comfort in Montgomery County.. watches are warranted because there could be sig. ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 this is one time I am happy to be farther south and have the urban heat factor...i still dont think we have much of a freezing rain problem here in philly. looks like phl climbs abv freezing around hr 61 or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Too close for comfort in Montgomery County.. watches are warranted because there could be sig. ice. Agreed. Still a long way out, but I'd be extra worried at this point if I lived across northern parts of the county where elevations are 200' higher than central portions. It "should" find a way to sneak above freezing in our neck of the woods at some point Wednesday. Now, whether its at 13z or say,17z could make the difference between some ice, and major ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Stupid question time: Is the ratio for ice accumulation just 1:1? I know that water occupies more volume in its solid state (i.e. ice) but is that enough of a chance for higher ratios? Or is 0.20" of moisture 0.20" of ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Stupid question time: Is the ratio for ice accumulation just 1:1? I know that water occupies more volume in its solid state (i.e. ice) but is that enough of a chance for higher ratios? Or is 0.20" of moisture 0.20" of ice? sleet is usually around 3:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 My god, central Indiana ice storm ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedude11 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Being here in SJ, a changeover to plain rain is expected.. no doubt. But when CAD is relied upon (along with a solid HP to the north) to hold in the freezing surface temperatures, it almost always overperforms. VDAY 2007 for example.. being 15 miles SE of Philly, most mets said a changeover to all rain was expected late in the overnight hours - with the morning commute being a-okay. Glenn Schwartz, legit the best met in Philly, agreed - and that was based off what the evening models had shown. I went to bed after his 11:20 segment, when he said the morning commute would be pretty good.. why would I pull an all nighter for a storm projected to turn over to rain and I could have school in the morning? so I fell asleep, setting my alarm at 5:30 just in case. And there it was - ice storm warnings scrolling across the tv... the CAD prevailed and overperformed! We had a lot of freezing rain and schools were closed for 2 days - even though it did eventually change back over to all rain after mid morning. So, this CAD situation WILL overperform like it always does. Those of you N&W of Philly, be prepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Per CoolWX and BUFKIT - There is a strip of mostly sleet below the mostly snow area in PA. AVP is all sleet and snow with no FR. Below this is a narrow strip of FR above 0.6" in Lehigh Valley/S Poconos and along I-78 to Reading and further west . .Farther south are lesser amounts of FR. PHL is about an inch of snow and 0.3 FR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Being here in SJ, a changeover to plain rain is expected.. no doubt. But when CAD is relied upon (along with a solid HP to the north) to hold in the freezing surface temperatures, it almost always overperforms. VDAY 2007 for example.. being 15 miles SE of Philly, most mets said a changeover to all rain was expected late in the overnight hours - with the morning commute being a-okay. Glenn Schwartz, legit the best met in Philly, agreed - and that was based off what the evening models had shown. I went to bed after his 11:20 segment, when he said the morning commute would be pretty good.. why would I pull an all nighter for a storm projected to turn over to rain and I could have school in the morning? so I fell asleep, setting my alarm at 5:30 just in case. And there it was - ice storm warnings scrolling across the tv... the CAD prevailed and overperformed! We had a lot of freezing rain and schools were closed for 2 days - even though it did eventually change back over to all rain after mid morning. So, this CAD situation WILL overperform like it always does. Those of you N&W of Philly, be prepared. Agreed. CAD situations tend to trend colder as we near the event and temps usually remain slightly colder longer than progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I really don't want sleet TBH. But getting an all snowstorm is impossible at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 snow to and accumulation of sleet to significant freezing rain is just... a bad combo. This is the real deal, folks. Some of us are going to be hit hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/21/index_zt2_s_loop.shtml 21z Sref Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgir Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I recall the tremendous sleet event a couple years back, and pray that never happens again. I could now shovel or snow blow that ice tundra. Actually needed to hire professional snow removal to clear the drive way. Imagine shoveling frozen BB gun pellets 7" deep. Plain rain please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS colder at the surface thru hour 60 compared to 12z. 32 line just lifting past Philadelphia at 7 AM at 0z, 12 z had it to Quakertown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS is much more wound up and NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Could some one break this down for me and tell me how much ice this would be for my area. Thanks http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?regi...&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 hr 63 warming at surface 66 69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Could some one break this down for me and tell me how much ice this would be for my area. Thanks http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?regi...&field=prec It says in the totals on the top left of the image, Freezing Raing: 0.6 That's significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Could some one break this down for me and tell me how much ice this would be for my area. Thanks http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?regi...&field=prec 6 tenths of frz rain, about .25-.5 of sleet accum and about an inch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 hr 63 warming at surface 66 69 Boston's gonna have feet. We're gonna have zilch. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hr 72 surface 0C line crashing back SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It says in the totals on the top left of the image, Freezing Raing: 0.6 That's significant. significant is .25, major is .5, catastrophic is .75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Could some one break this down for me and tell me how much ice this would be for my area. Thanks http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?regi...&field=prec >6/10- of an inch. CRUSHING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 As I noted earlier, GFS is probably too warm at the surface and underdoing CAD as usual. Unless I'm not seeing something out of the ordinary here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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