NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 [snip] I won't lie...you kind of scared me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 What a classic freezing rain sounding showing up for New Brunswick, NJ: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 out to hr 51 the frz line may be a little further south, even though the temps may be a little warmer the CAD signature is more pronounced this run. True. It almost is like the second part of the system sped up, tilting the trough negative faster than 18z which made the first overrunning precip. shift north. Because it's faster, 850's surge above freezing but at the surface, there's still that persistent CAD signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Surface temps at 60: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 **** just got real. Warmer at 850, colder at surface Places 10-20 miles north of I-80 may still be sleet/mix. South of I80 probably mostly ice until you hit the 32 line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Terrible run of the NAM unless you like your house without power for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It looks slightly cooler than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Models will play catch up with surface temps the whole time with this artic high pressing south. Mt Holly knows the ZR is the big issue here. Watches most certainly are warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Terrible run of the NAM unless you like your house without power for a few days. Lol, am I the only one here that absolutely adores freezing rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 hr63...well, don't be surprised if you don't hear from me after a point Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 wow... really not happy still seeing this setup... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Models will play catch up with surface temps the whole time with this artic high pressing south. Mt Holly knows the ZR is the big issue here. Watches most certainly are warranted. I'd go with ice storm watches though, not winter storm watches. The public needs to know EXACTLY what this is. I heard someone tell me today that New York was getting 24" on Wednesday. God, I didn't even attempt to talk him out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 850 temps for Tamaqua were above 0c at 54 hours, then went at or slightly below at 57, then went back above at 60. Seems like there's going to be an upper air battle going on, at least for a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Low weakens again as it hits the OV, and you have that 1029 high dropping south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'd go with ice storm watches though, not winter storm watches. The public needs to know EXACTLY what this is. I heard someone tell me today that New York was getting 24" on Wednesday. God, I didn't even attempt to talk him out of it. Is there such a thing? I thought it was WS Watch/Warning then IS Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 looks like phl climbs abv freezing around hr 61 or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoD Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I won't lie...you kind of scared me. I will second what SP says. My wife and I lived it and were without power for 6 days. One other thing to remember is to have plenty of rock salt on hand. You never know when you will need to used it. Also, a chainsaw with plenty of gas. I used ours on the 4th day to help ccut our way out of the development. D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I will second what SP says. My wife and I lived it and were without power for 6 days. One other thing to remember is to have plenty of rock salt on hand. You never know when you will need to used it. Also, a chainsaw with plenty of gas. I used ours on the 4th day to help ccut our way out of the development. D Well I'm on a college campus (PSU Hazleton; ~1,600') so not quite the same situation. They'll have rock salt on hand. Wonder what they will wind up doing if the campus loses power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 After examining the soundings in 3 hour increments for here in New Brunswick, we never really get close to above freezing at the surface on this latest run of the NAM, and we were supposed to be in the battleground area for where the freezing line would set up. I don't have BUFKIT on this computer I am using but this sure looks nasty... hours and hours of freezing rain. A rough estimate from when we go above freezing aloft shows 0.25-0.50" of ice but BUFKIT would be much more helpful in assessing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoD Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Well I'm on a college campus (PSU Hazleton; ~1,600') so not quite the same situation. They'll have rock salt on hand. Wonder what they will wind up doing if the campus loses power. Good for you. Less chance of being stranded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Temps rise above freezing AFTER precip exits for N&W. Lovely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 looks like for phl everything up to 60 is frozen, then about 0.7" of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Temps rise above freezing AFTER precip exits for N&W. Lovely. I'm pretty sure areas north of 80 (Maybe even NW of 78) never see freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Is there such a thing? I thought it was WS Watch/Warning then IS Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Well I'm on a college campus (PSU Hazleton; ~1,600') so not quite the same situation. They'll have rock salt on hand. Wonder what they will wind up doing if the campus loses power. They probably have multiple generators and back up systems in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 looks like phl climbs abv freezing around hr 61 or so... Flow off the ocean prevents a major ice storm in immediate phl area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 After examining the soundings in 3 hour increments for here in New Brunswick, we never really get close to above freezing at the surface on this latest run of the NAM, and we were supposed to be in the battleground area for where the freezing line would set up. I don't have BUFKIT on this computer I am using but this sure looks nasty... hours and hours of freezing rain. A rough estimate from when we go above freezing aloft shows 0.25-0.50" of ice but BUFKIT would be much more helpful in assessing that. Wonderful news.! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 66hr looks above 32 for abe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Temps rise above freezing AFTER precip exits for N&W. Lovely. That's normal for us though. CAD rarely leaves early around the LV. Most storms are below freezing until at least 90% of the precip is gone. Many times it never gets above until as you say, after the storm. This time, it may not even do that except for an hour or two as the winds shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 72hr still above 32 for abe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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