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PHL CWA Feb 1-2 Storm OBS and Discussion


Rib

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

1124 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

COUNTY SPECIFIC MESSAGE:

...STEADY FREEZING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE

EARLY MORNING HOURS...

LOOK FOR STEADY FREEZING RAIN TO OVERSPREAD NORTHEAST MARYLAND...

NORTHERN DELAWARE...SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHWEST NEW

JERSEY THROUGH 130 AM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST

BELOW THE FREEZING MARK...ICE WILL ACCUMULATE ON ALL COLDER

SURFACES... INCLUDING ROADS...SIDEWALKS AND PARKING LOTS.

THROUGH 130 AM...ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH

ARE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLICK DRIVING AND WALKING

CONDITIONS.

HAYES

AFFECTED COUNTIES:

IN DELAWARE: NEW CASTLE. IN MARYLAND: CECIL. IN NEW JERSEY: ATLANTIC, ATLANTIC, COASTAL, BURLINGTON, BURLINGTON, NORTHWESTERN, BURLINGTON, SOUTHEASTERN, CAMDEN, CUMBERLAND, GLOUCESTER, SALEM. IN PENNSYLVANIA: CHESTER, DELAWARE, MONTGOMERY, PHILADELPHIA.

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The 11PM news was the key. By the AM news, the damage will be done and you won't need local news to tell you about something coming.

Very true Ray. By the way, love your posts and analysis as does my wife (as she is a professor at The College of New Jersey) since you've given her a lot of days off in the TTN area!

Back on topic --- getting that warning out by the NWS was huge at 11PM for the school cancellations, etc. here in PHL and Delco.

26.4 degrees with the FRZ rain picking up. This could get ugly. Jacking up the oil heat a bit higher than usual prior to hitting the pillow!

Of course I can't sleep since I tracked this thing for a week and want to see the end result.

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The 11PM news was the key. By the AM news, the damage will be done and you won't need local news to tell you about something coming.

Love ya fam but to be brutally honest, in a perfect world 11pm YESTERDAY should have been the key. What can people do now to prepare if dire wx hits them between now and 6am? When will the science catch up with reality?

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those last 2 hourly reports from Chicago Midway are absolutely crazy

http://www.weather.g...story/KMDW.html

Thunderstorm Heavy Snow Small Hail/Snow Pellets Blowing Snow Freezing Fog and Windy

21 °F

(-6 °C)Humidity:88 %Wind Speed:NE 30 G 56 MPHBarometer:29.69" (1006.9 mb)Dewpoint:18 °F (-8 °C)Wind Chill:3 °F (-16 °C)Visibility:0.06 mi.More Local Wx:3 Day History:Thunderstorm Heavy Snow Small Hail/Snow Pellets Blowing Snow Freezing Fog and Windy

21 °F

(-6 °C)Humidity:88 %Wind Speed:NE 30 G 56 MPHBarometer:29.69" (1006.9 mb)Dewpoint:18 °F (-8 °C)Wind Chill:3 °F (-16 °C)Visibility:0.06 mi.More Local Wx:3 Day History:Ha ha! That's like a 300+ hour GFS fantasy storm!!!

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those last 2 hourly reports from Chicago Midway are absolutely crazy

http://www.weather.g...story/KMDW.html

We should try to keep this thread on topic (especially since I'm a temp mod tonight) but yeah, I wanted to post that too... just nuts:

METAR KMDW 020351Z AUTO 05026G49KT 1/16SM R31C/1200V2200FT +TSSNGS BLSN FZFG OVC001CB M06/M08 A2969 RMK AO2 PK WND 04049/0347 TSB04E17B36GSB46 SLP069 OCNL LTGICCG OHD TS OHD MOV N SNINCR 1/11 T10611078 PNO $

I want that!

OK, back to obs for THIS region...

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Love ya fam but to be brutally honest, in a perfect world 11pm YESTERDAY should have been the key. What can people do now to prepare if dire wx hits them between now and 6am? When will the science catch up with reality?

A few degrees on the ground makes all the difference in these situations. That's what makes it really tricky.

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Very true Ray. By the way, love your posts and analysis as does my wife (as she is a professor at The College of New Jersey) since you've given her a lot of days off in the TTN area!

Back on topic --- getting that warning out by the NWS was huge at 11PM for the school cancellations, etc. here in PHL and Delco.

26.4 degrees with the FRZ rain picking up. This could get ugly. Jacking up the oil heat a bit higher than usual prior to hitting the pillow!

Of course I can't sleep since I tracked this thing for a week and want to see the end result.

Thanks... I didn't know TCNJ was calling off based on my forecasts from way out here :lol:

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last post on Short Term Models by me of the night at least for the RR and RUC (will have imagery for Philly crew below main section), I may post the new HRRR when its done.

3z RR

Precip out of here around 9-10 am

total precip

totp_q2sfc_f14.png

farthest north on precip type charts

ptyp_q2sfc_f10.png

Philly crew:

you change over at between 6 and 7am

total precip at that time

totp_q2sfc_f08.png

RUC

precip done by 9-10 am

total precip

post-2206-0-24904100-1296622523.jpg

farthest north on precip charts

ptyp_t3sfc_f11.png

Philly crew change over around 5am

total precip thru that time

post-2206-0-61893100-1296622701.jpg

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