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PHL CWA Feb 1-2 Storm OBS and Discussion


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AFD update:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

1020 PM EVENING PACKAGE EXPANDED THE ICE STORM WARNING INTO PHL/ILG

AND CECIL COUNTY MARYLAND.

FOR CECIL COUNTY MD AND NEW CASTLE COUNTY DE...THE WORST OF THE

ICING SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER...DEEPER INTO THE

COLD AIR AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED.

THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AND A QUICKER DUMP

OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION PRIOR TO SUNRISE PROMPTED THE EXPANSION OF

THE WARNING. CONFIDENCE ON VERIFYING GLAZE OF GREATER THAN ONE

QUARTER INCH IS LESS THAN IDEAL BUT WITH IN-HOUSE COLLABORATION WE

FELT IT WAS TIME TO ISSUE WHEN A FEW WOULD HEAR THE MESSAGE.

HEAVY FREEZING RAINS AS WE EXPECT TOWARD DAWN - ALONG WITH THUNDER

IN SE PA DEL AND S NJ...DO NOT ACCRETE NECESSARILY AS WELL AS A

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT LOWER RATES...BUT THE ACCRETION SCIENCE

SEEMS LIMITED.

ADVISORY CANCELS: AT THE SAME TIME...ITS EVIDENT THAT TEMPERATURES

WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING THE REST OF THE NIGHT IN SOUTHERN

DEL AND MOST OF MD AND THE ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED THERE.

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Thank you Glenn for your tone during your forecast and letting people know how serious this is. you're ol buddy over on fox 29's forecast was more of that lack of seriousness I was talking about.

I agree, I don't know if it was stressed enough how serious this is shaping up to be for I95 N&W tomorrow morning.

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latest short term models rain line makes it to

RUC- midway between Morgantown and Reading, to Boyertown, to Quakertown, to Hacketsstown, NJ

RR- Lancaster, Pheonixville, Landsdale, Ewing, to Edison, NJ

HRRR- Morgantown, to Collegville, Doytlestown, to Lambertville, NJ to Bridgewater twp, NJ

.5-1" on all models, RR is wetter with a few 1" specs here and there.

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latest short term models rain line makes it to

RUC- midway between Morgantown and Reading, to Boyertown, to Quakertown, to Hacketsstown, NJ

RR- Lancaster, Pheonixville, Landsdale, Ewing, to Edison, NJ

HRRR- Morgantown, to Collegville, Doytlestown, to Lambertville, NJ to Bridgewater twp, NJ

.5-1" on all models, RR is wetter with a few 1" specs here and there.

How much precip before the rain line makes it that far north?

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11PM temps and 1-hour change

SWF 18 -1

MGJ 19 0

12N 20 0

FWN 21 +1

MPO 21 -1

AVP 24 +1

ABE 24 0

DYL 24 0

MMU 24 0

HPN 24 0

FRG 24 0

ABE 24 0

DYL 24 0

MMU 24 0

HPN 24 0

FRG 24 0

ABE 24 0

DYL 24 0

MMU 24 0

HPN 24 0

FRG 24 0

UKT 25 +2

CDW 25 0

SMQ 25 0

TEB 25 0

XLL 26 +1

RDG 26 +1

NXX 26 0

NYC 27 0

JFK 27 0

PTW 28 +1

PNE 28 +1

EWR 28 +1

LNS 28 +1

LOM 28 +1

BLM 28 0

TTN 29 +1

LGA 29 +1

WRI 29 0

VAY 29 0

NEL 29 0

PHL 30 +1

MJX 30 0

ILG 31 0

MIV 32 -1

ACY 33 +1

WWD 34 0

W29 34 0

DOV 34 -1

GED 36 -1

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How much precip before the rain line makes it that far north?

those are the amounts the RR and HRRR go from .5 to 1" so its hard to know exactly how much, looking at another version of the RUC tho .8-.9 covers the entire DE Valley and LV and Berks .7-.8 in NJ but precip is still falling there this is at 12 hrs.

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Getting nasty out here in Media, PA. Within an hour, I was able to walk down the driveway no issue --- just now, I almost bit it about 5 times. Cars are encased and things just started.

Kudos to Walt and Mt. Holly for the extended Ice Storm Warning. The news has picked it up and so will the AM news. Big time smart decision.

Winds nearly calm to slight (from the E or NE) with a temperature up a bit to 27.3.

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Solid job by Glenn on NBC in PHL tonight. He:

1) Mentioned the extension of the Ice Storm Warning.

2) Had genuine concern in his voice and tone.

3) Menitioned power outages and the fact that travel will be 'impossible' at points.

4) Even threw a meteorological bone out there saying, "Winds from the NE at the surface with winds coming from the S with the approaching storm spells Freezing Rain."

Well done and always great to see your name pop up on this board.

Solid Glenn.

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Getting nasty out here in Media, PA. Within an hour, I was able to walk down the driveway no issue --- just now, I almost bit it about 5 times. Cars are encased and things just started.

Kudos to Walt and Mt. Holly for the extended Ice Storm Warning. The news has picked it up and so will the AM news. Big time smart decision.

Winds nearly calm to slight (from the E or NE) with a temperature up a bit to 27.3.

The 11PM news was the key. By the AM news, the damage will be done and you won't need local news to tell you about something coming.

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