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PHL CWA Feb 1-2 Storm OBS and Discussion


Rib

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Delco just got an upgrade (includes Philly & NCC DE)

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY, NEW JERSEY

1013 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...FREEZING RAIN LATE THIS EVENING...THEN

FREEZING RAIN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY DENSE

FOG. VISIBILITY ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. ADDITIONAL ICE

ACCUMULATION OF UP TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.

.WEDNESDAY...RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING. ICE

ACCUMULATION AROUND A TRACE. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING WEST 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE

AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.

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HRRR/RR keeping that fr. rain line near our neck of the woods, even for the heaviest precip. As a met said previously (I forget which), that heaviest precip will likely fall as rain due to thermodynamic processes, but a lot the lighter stuff may actually accrete as ice.

We'll see how it goes...

That would be pretty wicked. All good unless I lose my power...

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Delco just got an upgrade (includes Philly & NCC DE)

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY, NEW JERSEY

1013 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...FREEZING RAIN LATE THIS EVENING...THEN

FREEZING RAIN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY DENSE

FOG. VISIBILITY ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. ADDITIONAL ICE

ACCUMULATION OF UP TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.

.WEDNESDAY...RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING. ICE

ACCUMULATION AROUND A TRACE. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING WEST 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE

AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.

Where did you get that? NWS still shows a freezing rain advisory for Delaware County.

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Delco just got an upgrade (includes Philly & NCC DE)

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY, NEW JERSEY

1013 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...FREEZING RAIN LATE THIS EVENING...THEN

FREEZING RAIN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY DENSE

FOG. VISIBILITY ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. ADDITIONAL ICE

ACCUMULATION OF UP TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.

.WEDNESDAY...RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING. ICE

ACCUMULATION AROUND A TRACE. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING WEST 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE

AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.

Link rob? not on nws site. or mt holly page

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Where did you get that? NWS still shows a freezing rain advisory for Delaware County.

They may not have officially sent it out yet. It is in the ZFP updated about 15 minutes or so ago.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=ZFP&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0

PAZ071-021815-

PHILADELPHIA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PHILADELPHIA

1013 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY

REST OF TONIGHT

FREEZING RAIN LIKELY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF

SLEET LATE THIS EVENING...THEN FREEZING RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF

SLEET. ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF

PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.

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Temp has been steady here in NW Chesco at 24.5 for the last 1.5 hrs

Wind still NNE at 3 mph

precip is around 13 miles SW of my location and streaming north

Wxsim indicates some IP mixed for the 1st hour then straight ZR thru 830am tomorrow with 0.92" of qpf during that time

[/quote

good luck

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Link rob? not on nws site. or mt holly page

I get emailed direct when the products come out.

64121

FLUS41 KPHI 020315

HWOPHI

DEZ001-MDZ008-PAZ070-071-021200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

1015 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

COUNTY SPECIFIC MESSAGE:

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST

MARYLAND AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE

INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

ICE STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE

INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

ICE STORM WARNING.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW AND ICE IS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER

CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AFFECTED COUNTIES:

IN DELAWARE: NEW CASTLE. IN MARYLAND: CECIL. IN PENNSYLVANIA: DELAWARE, PHILADELPHIA.

64032

FPUS51 KPHI 020313

ZFPPHI

PAZ070-021815-

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY, NEW JERSEY

1013 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...FREEZING RAIN LATE THIS EVENING...THEN

FREEZING RAIN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY DENSE

FOG. VISIBILITY ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. ADDITIONAL ICE

ACCUMULATION OF UP TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.

.WEDNESDAY...RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING. ICE

ACCUMULATION AROUND A TRACE. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING WEST 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE

AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY AND BRISK. LOWS IN THE LOWER

20S. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND BRISK. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S.

NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING

MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 19. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING

MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW. A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AND

RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF

PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY...RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY. FREEZING RAIN LIKELY IN THE

MORNING. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION

60 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE

EVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.

.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 40.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S.

.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.

.TUESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. HIGHS IN THE MID

40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.

AFFECTED COUNTIES:

IN PENNSYLVANIA: DELAWARE.

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They may not have officially sent it out yet. It is in the ZFP updated about 15 minutes or so ago.

http://forecast.weat...on=1&glossary=0

PAZ071-021815-

PHILADELPHIA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PHILADELPHIA

1013 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY

REST OF TONIGHT

FREEZING RAIN LIKELY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF

SLEET LATE THIS EVENING...THEN FREEZING RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF

SLEET. ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF

PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.

Got it. This site is awesome to get info before the rest of the world.

I have to believe that Walt was in here seeing obs (of course w/ their short term models and current obs) and helped push that Ice Storm Warning. This forum is a powerful and important place if we chip in w/ accurate obs... Cool stuff.

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Temp has been steady here in NW Chesco at 24.5 for the last 1.5 hrs

Wind still NNE at 3 mph

precip is around 13 miles SW of my location and streaming north

Wxsim indicates some IP mixed for the 1st hour then straight ZR thru 830am tomorrow with 0.92" of qpf during that time

Good luck. If that ZR prog. verifies, then a lot of folks will have a rude, but visually spectacular, awakening tomorrow. BTW, backup power for the wxsim?

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http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=HWO&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0

DEZ001-MDZ008-PAZ070-071-021200-NEW CASTLE-CECIL-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-1015 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY...THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEASTMARYLAND AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA..DAY ONE...TONIGHT.PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THEINTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. ICE STORM WARNING..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THEINTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. ICE STORM WARNING.THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW AND ICE IS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHERCONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.$$

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Warning out

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

1035 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

...ICE STORM TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND ALL

OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AS WELL AS CECIL COUNTY MARYLAND AND NORTHERN

DELAWARE...

.LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT WILL REFORM IN

THE WATERS EAST OF NEW JERSEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN QUICKLY

DEPART FOR THE MARITIMES WEDNESDAY EVENING.

COUNTY SPECIFIC MESSAGE:

/O.UPG.KPHI.ZR.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-110202T1300Z/

/O.EXB.KPHI.IS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110202T1300Z/

NEW CASTLE-CECIL-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...MEDIA...

PHILADELPHIA

1035 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED AN ICE

STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY. THE

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* AREAS AFFECTED: THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF MARYLAND...THE NORTH

THIRD OF DELAWARE...THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA

INCLUDING PHILADELPHIA.

* PRECIPITATION TYPES: FREEZING RAIN.

* GLAZE ACCUMULATIONS: BETWEEN 2 AND 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH.

* TIMING: STEADY FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPING NOW WILL FALL HEAVILY

FOR A TIME ALONG WITH CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES AT

SUNRISE SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 32 AND 33 DEGREES WHEN THE

FREEZING RAIN CHANGES TO PLAIN RAIN.

* IMPACTS: THE MORNING COMMUTE WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED

BY ICE ON ALL UNTREATED PAVEMENTS AS WELL AS POOR DRAINAGE

STREET FLOODING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES

FROM GLAZE ACCUMULATING ON TREES AND WIRES...ESPECIALLY IN THE

NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF BOTH PHILADELPHIA AND WILMINGTON AS WELL AS

ALONG THE CECIL COUNTY MARYLAND BORDER WITH PENNSYLVANIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN ICE STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS

WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY

DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU

MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR

VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND WINDS WILL

LIKELY LEAD TO SNAPPED POWER LINES AND FALLING TREE BRANCHES THAT

ADD TO THE DANGER.

AFFECTED COUNTIES:

IN DELAWARE: NEW CASTLE. IN MARYLAND: CECIL. IN PENNSYLVANIA: DELAWARE, PHILADELPHIA.

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Fortunately I have an automatic propane generator that kicks in 10 seconds after power cuts out. It keeps a good bit of the house humming...but the internet is not one of them. Fortunately my smartphone can tether to my computer for a good connection

Stay safe

Paul

Good luck. If that ZR prog. verifies, then a lot of folks will have a rude, but visually spectacular, awakening tomorrow. BTW, backup power for the wxsim?

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Mt Holly finally catching onto the ice threat getting into Philly.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1035 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011 ...ICE STORM TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND ALL OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AS WELL AS CECIL COUNTY MARYLAND AND NORTHERN DELAWARE... .LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT WILL REFORM IN THE WATERS EAST OF NEW JERSEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN QUICKLY DEPART FOR THE MARITIMES WEDNESDAY EVENING. DEZ001-MDZ008-PAZ070-071-021145- /O.UPG.KPHI.ZR.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-110202T1300Z/ /O.EXB.KPHI.IS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110202T1300Z/ NEW CASTLE-CECIL-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...MEDIA... PHILADELPHIA 1035 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011 ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED AN ICE STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY. THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * AREAS AFFECTED: THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF MARYLAND...THE NORTH THIRD OF DELAWARE...THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INCLUDING PHILADELPHIA. * PRECIPITATION TYPES: FREEZING RAIN. * GLAZE ACCUMULATIONS: BETWEEN 2 AND 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH. * TIMING: STEADY FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPING NOW WILL FALL HEAVILY FOR A TIME ALONG WITH CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES AT SUNRISE SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 32 AND 33 DEGREES WHEN THE FREEZING RAIN CHANGES TO PLAIN RAIN. * IMPACTS: THE MORNING COMMUTE WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY ICE ON ALL UNTREATED PAVEMENTS AS WELL AS POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES FROM GLAZE ACCUMULATING ON TREES AND WIRES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF BOTH PHILADELPHIA AND WILMINGTON AS WELL AS ALONG THE CECIL COUNTY MARYLAND BORDER WITH PENNSYLVANIA. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... AN ICE STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SNAPPED POWER LINES AND FALLING TREE BRANCHES THAT ADD TO THE DANGER. && $$
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