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PHL CWA Feb 1-2 Storm OBS and Discussion


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Some light freezing rain here now. Cars already have a good coating on them. Temp is 26.2 at the moment.

CAD doing its work-- my temp is almost the same as yours! 26.3 here on a NE wind and still dropping.

This really reminds me of Jan 1994.

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Watching the coastal points. Seeing that northerly wind component versus east.

Some coastal temps at this hour with dewpoints

- Atlantic CIty: 30

- Cape May Couthouse: 36

Winds are undoubtedly shifting from what was SE to E and is now NNE or NE at times. With 3 or so hours until things start to hit, this could be important for areas on the 'borderline'.

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Lost power once already here in Northern DE but I live in a heavily wooded neighborhood and lose power all the time so who knows. Temp I think is slightly under 32 and has been for a while. All the ice we had this a.m. melted during the day but has now refrozen again. I am doubtful it will get cold enough here to really get heavy icing if the rain comes hard enough. I will be thankful for that hopefully.

Good luck to everybody north of Reading in PA because it just sounds like its going to get nasty up there.

Strange that everyone else's temp is dropping and we seem to be holding steady at around 33 degrees. Still time for temps to drop but I am beginning to believe this will be a non-event south of ILG.

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Watching the coastal points. Seeing that northerly wind component versus east.

Some coastal temps at this hour with dewpoints

- Atlantic CIty: 30

- Cape May Couthouse: 36

If the wind Stays N-NE that is a big sign that temps. are not going to rise very much. Will it hold? That's the big ?

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looking at various temperatures across Berks County, interesting trend is found, East of Mount Penn in places like Exeter /Birdsboro, just a couple miles east of Reading its 27-28 degrees, west of Mount Penn, Reading Airpoort, Spring Township, Leesport temps are running 23-25

Noticed that too....the different weatherbug sites have a big variety.

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mcd0077.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0077

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0739 PM CST TUE FEB 01 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TO SERN PA...MD PANHANDLE AND W CNTRL NJ

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 020139Z - 020715Z

FREEZING RAIN...POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SLEET AT TIMES ACROSS CNTRL

PA...WILL INCREASE FROM W TO E TONIGHT. EXPECT RATES AROUND 0.05" TO

0.10" PER 3 HOURS EXCEPT IN ANY HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CELLS THAT MAY

DEVELOP WHERE RATES MAY BRIEFLY BE HIGHER.

01Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO

ACROSS MUCH OF PA INTO W CNTRL NJ. AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND

SLEET WERE MOVING INTO WRN PA AS PRECIPITATION SHIELD /ASSOCIATED

WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT/ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND 850 MB LOW NEAR ST.

LOUIS/ TRACKS NEWD. 23Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED AN ELEVATED

WARM NOSE AROUND 860-870 MB OF 3-6 C WITH SFC TEMPERATURES RANGING

FROM THE LOW 20S TO NEAR 30 F ACROSS THE MCD AREA. THE ONLY

QUESTIONABLE AREA IS NEAR THE MARYLAND PANHANDLE WHERE SFC

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR FREEZING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS

AS SFC LOW NOW OVER SRN IND/SWRN KY TRACKS E/NEWD AND ATTENDANT WARM

FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM APPROACHING MID LEVEL LOW

PRESSURE SYSTEM...850 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF LOW AS

WILL MID LEVEL JET /40-50 KT/...LEADING TO INCREASED FORCING THROUGH

THE SATURATED WARM LAYER. EXPECT RATES TO INCREASE ACROSS WRN PA BY

03Z...REACHING W CNTRL NJ BY AROUND 06-09Z.

..STOPPKOTTE.. 02/02/2011

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 39487725 39487804 39607861 39737903 39887914 40087923

40327925 40547937 40707966 40817997 40948021 41058039

41228057 41538063 41898049 42038021 42087947 41967881

41817825 41517759 41417654 41317569 41117525 40977482

40787457 40587445 40227442 39967469 39957484 39757537

39487725

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Watching the coastal points. Seeing that northerly wind component versus east.

Some coastal temps at this hour with dewpoints

- Atlantic CIty: 30

- Cape May Couthouse: 36

Cape May County might be one of the few places in NJ that doesn't have a snowpack. When I left AC on Sunday there was some patchy snowcover there but just a few miles inland and there was plenty of white. I wonder if that would have any effect for western locations when the wind shifts east. Maybe not.

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I think this is a great point and ask Pro Mets to chime in...please!

Does the glaze from round 1 decrease the amount of latent heat released from initial heavy precip tonite, therefore increasing totals?? There is already a nice glaze/heavy rime from about Skippack, N and W.

Just slipped to 24 now in NW Montco, winds NNE at 3-5, barometer steady.

No. Latent heat release is solely a function of the fresh precipitation freezing. Existing ice will have no effect on whether there is more or less.

However, the existing ice may absorb some of the heat released, thereby minimizing its effect a small amount.

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If the wind Stays N-NE that is a big sign that temps. are not going to rise very much. Will it hold? That's the big ?

In past hr, NW montco wind moved to ENE from NNE, with some E mixed in :unsure: Barometer heading down .002"

Could be a bottom temp of 24 and now the slow rise. If precip gets here first, greater chance for ZR

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<br />looking at various temperatures across Berks County, interesting trend is found, East of Mount Penn in places like Exeter /Birdsboro, just a couple miles east of Reading its 27-28 degrees, west of Mount Penn, Reading Airpoort, Spring Township, Leesport temps are running 23-25<br />
<br /><br />My first instinct is that you're getting some cad on the west side of Neversink Mtn as northeast winds nudge down the west side of the mountain and dam the cold air in.  That could explain why Exeter, etc. are warmer since they are east of or on the mtn.
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Strange that everyone else's temp is dropping and we seem to be holding steady at around 33 degrees. Still time for temps to drop but I am beginning to believe this will be a non-event south of ILG.

I'm up in Glen Mills/Chadds Ford, PA, and the temp here isn't dropping. It's been holding steady at 30.7 F. Which is higher than it was this afternoon.

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