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PHL CWA Feb 1-2 Storm OBS and Discussion


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Temp continues to slide here in NW Chester County

Currently

Freezing Fog

26.0

RH 94%

DP 24.5

Wind NNE 3 gusts to 5mph

Snow depth 16.0"

Latest Wxsim forecast with 18z....not pretty

0.95" of qpf falls by 830am in the morning...when temps are forecasted to rise above freezing

Wxsim indicates temps will fall for about 1 more hour to around 25.6 and then begin to rise

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Earlier in the thread the RR and the HRRR were posted, these are two separate mesoscale models if I am not mistaken?

I wanted to ask a met out there whether the guidance now suggests that there will be less or little sleet and more freezing rain for this event for our forecast area, north of PHL. I know in the discussion, there was mention of potentially more sleet, or at this point is it just a nowcast, see what falls situation?

mostly a nowcast, but I find it interesting that in the Ice Storm Warning for the northern zones there is mention of sleet possibly cutting back frz rain totals, in the southern Ice storm warning there is no mention of sleet

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You are correct Walt about PHL and the warming wind direction. The surface wind in a cold air damming setup must turn east and especially southeast to erode the shallow cold layer.

27.5 here - temp is dropping slowly- 3 miles N of NXX - but the wind is about 5 mph out of the ESE.

It will be interesting to see what happens. I think I will be OK here, I am in a lower lying area but the elevation FACES the southeast, so I should get scoured out pretty quickly once the winds crank up. Its one time I will be rooting for a rapid rise in temps.

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mostly a nowcast, but I find it interesting that in the Ice Storm Warning for the northern zones there is mention of sleet possibly cutting back frz rain totals, in the southern Ice storm warning there is no mention of sleet

Probably due to them being a bit north and removed from super WAA aloft. The warm layer may be a bit more shallow for a time over the Poconos so the sleet potential is on the map so to speak.

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Temp down another 0.6degrees in last 20 minutes...North wind is increasing

Temp 25.4

Temp continues to slide here in NW Chester County

Currently

Freezing Fog

26.0

RH 94%

DP 24.5

Wind NNE 3 gusts to 5mph

Snow depth 16.0"

Latest Wxsim forecast with 18z....not pretty

0.95" of qpf falls by 830am in the morning...when temps are forecasted to rise above freezing

Wxsim indicates temps will fall for about 1 more hour to around 25.6 and then begin to rise

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Interesting map besides the radar. Look at the temperature range. Warmer air all along the Susquehanna River as they are all reporting 30 degrees, yet the Lehigh Valley and Northwestern New Jersey are in the low 20's.

yea i was going to say the same, its like a weird wedge from your location to rdg to paul's location to bensalem area to belmar. I was shocked to see belmar at 26 being right on the ocean.

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Reading, PA (weird) undefined precipitation, like a mist but floating, highly reflective very fine and very light on the air. freezing fog? Ice fog? (first time I''ve ever had to post unidentified precip but this has me stumped

Same here in Ontelaunee Twp.

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