noctilucent Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Warrington, PA. 28.0 degrees. It had fallen from 30.3 at 5 PM. However in the last 30 minutes winds have turned from the NE and are now out of the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foggy Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 27.5F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Looks like New Brunswick proper is just too far SE to really be in the bullseye for this event. We're holding steady at 26F for now although we have been dropping the last few hours so we'll see if we can squeak out a few more degrees. 26F/25F here with light freezing drizzle. Untreated sidewalks are glazed. I was going off current ASOS/AWOS temps when I outlined that area, so consider it "generalized" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Looks like New Brunswick proper is just too far SE to really be in the bullseye for this event. We're holding steady at 26F for now although we have been dropping the last few hours so we'll see if we can squeak out a few more degrees. 26F/25F here with light freezing drizzle. Untreated sidewalks are glazed. Edit: Speaking of Ray, with your tradition of how to measure snow threads, maybe you could make a thread about how to correctly measure ice? Most people here haven't ever dealt with measuring significant icing. go to branch of tree, look for branches that have even amount of ice accumulation, measure in tenths of an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I was going off current ASOS/AWOS temps when I outlined that area, so consider it "generalized" Alrighty - it did match up with Mount Holly's "line of death" so to speak though: NWS: SUGGEST THAT THOSE LIVING ALONG AND NW OF KCDW-KMMU-KSMQ-KDYL-KMQS BE PREPARED WITH BATTERY POWERED EQUIPMENT FOR POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES WED MORNING IF THIS IS AN ALL FREEZING RAIN EVENT THROUGH 9 AM WED. ALL CELL PHONES ETC SHOULD BE FULLY CHARGED. COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS WITHOUT POWER TOMORROW WHERE EVER GLAZE EXCEEDS 1/2 INCH. Also, did you see my edit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 27.9°/26. If the NAM continues to verify, we get below 26 by 3z. It's even running a few tenths too warm, so it's not out of the question that we get to 25 before the precip hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Temperature does begin to rise as the freezing rain falls. Already up .5F here in Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Didn't you guys spike to 40 degrees during V-Day 07? Yes. For about an hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Looks like New Brunswick proper is just too far SE to really be in the bullseye for this event. We're holding steady at 26F for now although we have been dropping the last few hours so we'll see if we can squeak out a few more degrees. 26F/25F here with light freezing drizzle. Untreated sidewalks are glazed. it will be intertesting to see how this works out. I have to leave for work at around 5:30 AM. As farmer pointed out, precip rate could be decent and this could affect what actually feezes. Temps around around 26 F in the area currently. Not sure if we fall anyfurther before the event begins. Where I work in southern Bergen County, we had some decent freezing rain and sleet in this morning. I was scrapping my car for 15 minutes clearing a nice layer of ice when I left earlier.. My wife informed Edison did not get much of anyhting today. My car is still glazed over on the roof etc. Hopefully tomorrow is not a disaster in the morning, but current temps have me slightly concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 The saving grace for those areas that are in the upper 20s to near freezing is that the precip looks quite intense. I haven't seen anyone here mention it but Wes Junker mentioned in another thread that when temps are above 26 or 27, you don't really get heavy freezing rain because it doesn't freeze fast enough... a lot tends to simply run off. That makes the QPF amounts look more dangerous than they actually might be. Plus, the large amount of warmer water flowing into the surface layer combined with rapid release of latent heat due to freezing tends to warm up the surface. For places below 26 or so, approximately MQS-DYL-SMQ on north and west, you're toast. Here it's 21... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 The saving grace for those areas that are in the upper 20s to near freezing is that the precip looks quite intense. I haven't seen anyone here mention it but Wes Junker mentioned in another thread that when temps are above 26 or 27, you don't really get heavy freezing rain because it doesn't freeze fast enough... a lot tends to simply run off. That makes the QPF amounts look more dangerous than they actually might be. Plus, the large amount of warmer water flowing into the surface layer combined with rapid release of latent heat due to freezing tends to warm up the surface. For places below 26 or so, approximately MQS-DYL-SMQ on north and west, you're toast. Ray, I'm about 4 miles South of DYL and new to the area, so I'm not all that familiar with local geography. I assume I am in much better shape down here? A few miles can sometimes make all the difference in the world. I'm actually quite unprepared for this thinking I'm in central Bucks County and we'll get above freezing. Thoughts? (Sorry for the imby post, new to the area) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Ray, I'm about 4 miles South of DYL and new to the area, so I'm not all that familiar with local geography. I assume I am in much better shape down here? A few miles can sometimes make all the difference in the world. I'm actually quite unprepared for this thinking I'm in central Bucks County and we'll get above freezing. Thoughts? (Sorry for the imby post, new to the area) I used to live in Warminster. There is basically no differnce between Warminster and Doylestown in winter related events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Here it's 21... I'm still 26.8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Alrighty - it did match up with Mount Holly's "line of death" so to speak though: NWS: SUGGEST THAT THOSE LIVING ALONG AND NW OF KCDW-KMMU-KSMQ-KDYL-KMQS BE PREPARED WITH BATTERY POWERED EQUIPMENT FOR POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES WED MORNING IF THIS IS AN ALL FREEZING RAIN EVENT THROUGH 9 AM WED. ALL CELL PHONES ETC SHOULD BE FULLY CHARGED. COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS WITHOUT POWER TOMORROW WHERE EVER GLAZE EXCEEDS 1/2 INCH. Also, did you see my edit? Didn't see Mt. Holly's "line of death" but glad to see it matches up with the one I just came up with Just saw your edit in the reply Noreaster07 gave.. see below. go to branch of tree, look for branches that have even amount of ice accumulation, measure in tenths of an inch Well.. branches are tricky in that they can glaze on both sides, making it look possibly worse than reality. You'd want to measure the maximum radius of icing on a branch, not the maximum diameter. A flat surface like a picnic table or top of a deck may be better. Or a snowboard of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I used to live in Warminster. There is basically no differnce between Warminster and Doylestown in winter related events. Thanks Darkstar. I guess I better get ready over the next couple hours...crap! 27F here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I am just south of DYL, so this is gonna be interesting to see how I fare. 26.7 currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Ray, I'm about 4 miles South of DYL and new to the area, so I'm not all that familiar with local geography. I assume I am in much better shape down here? A few miles can sometimes make all the difference in the world. I'm actually quite unprepared for this thinking I'm in central Bucks County and we'll get above freezing. Thoughts? (Sorry for the imby post, new to the area) I wouldn't say *much better*. Maybe *slightly better*. Of course it depends on exactly what temps are like as the heavy precip moves in, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Ray, I'm about 4 miles South of DYL and new to the area, so I'm not all that familiar with local geography. I assume I am in much better shape down here? A few miles can sometimes make all the difference in the world. I'm actually quite unprepared for this thinking I'm in central Bucks County and we'll get above freezing. Thoughts? (Sorry for the imby post, new to the area) Warminster has some pretty decent elevation, I know at the former Johnsville airfield (Street / Jacksonville) your 375' so you are really going to be close but probably eek out 33-34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 26.6 here in NW Chester County, still slowly dropping. Freezing mist continues. Generator's out and ready to go, will probably be in the 50s in the morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 steve, come south for colder air... 22.5f here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOW~DAZE Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 30.5 in Wayne, no change for the past hour ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 28 in TTN, we must be losing internet hubs because many sites are getting slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Sorry, but I need to poke a little fun here it will be intertesting to see how this works out. I have to leave for work at around 5:30 AM. As farmer pointed out, precip rate could be decent and this could affect what actually feezes. I do like to garden, but I don't think I can consider myself a farmer Temps around around 26 F in the area currently. Not sure if we fall anyfurther before the event begins. Where I work in southern Bergen County, we had some decent freezing rain and sleet in this morning. I was scrapping my car I'm sorry you felt you needed to scrap your car due to the icing OK, back to regular posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackhound Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 30.7 F in Glen Mills. Temp has actually risen a degree since early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I'm NW of the areas Ray mentioned but stand at a "safe" temp of 25.9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 steve, come south for colder air... 22.5f here I've noticed you tend to run very close to UKT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Think vertical mxg will jhave negligible impact PHL northward due to dense cold air trapped blo in version... i think the way to warm phl is turn the wind east and pull it in from the sst. max pres falls w new wave developemnt in del bay 12z wed... bad news for e wind PHL i think...limited experience with this in PHI area but pres fall centers and or pres fall-rise couplets are pretty good guides on wind deviating from geostrophic norm. wd You are correct Walt about PHL and the warming wind direction. The surface wind in a cold air damming setup must turn east and especially southeast to erode the shallow cold layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 need to shift this several hundred miles east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Earlier in the thread the RR and the HRRR were posted, these are two separate mesoscale models if I am not mistaken? I wanted to ask a met out there whether the guidance now suggests that there will be less or little sleet and more freezing rain for this event for our forecast area, north of PHL. I know in the discussion, there was mention of potentially more sleet, or at this point is it just a nowcast, see what falls situation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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