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PHL CWA Feb 1-2 Storm OBS and Discussion


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Think vertical mxg will jhave negligible impact PHL northward due to dense cold air trapped blo in version... i think the way to warm phl is turn the wind east and pull it in from the sst. max pres falls w new wave developemnt in del bay 12z wed... bad news for e wind PHL i think...limited experience with this in PHI area but pres fall centers and or pres fall-rise couplets are pretty good guides on wind deviating from geostrophic norm. wd

Walt you are almost a god of winter weather predicting. Do your thoughts agree with the products issued by the office? (If you have time to discuss, that is)

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I know that the HRRR has been very good with precip. amounts and arrival times this year. However, there was never a case where we were really focusing on the temperature so I don't know its past performance record.

From what I have seen, it does really well with temperatures. In fact, it really nailed the Jan 20/21 event with temperatures... precip not as much. Of course it has its good and bad days, but I would take its threat seriously and watch the trends through the night.

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Reading, PA Cloudy 26 degrees, dropped from 28, 3 hrs ago

Total ice accumulation today was .1" Snow: trace

Timeline

1/31

10:30pm snow pellets off and on

2/1

3:45am light snow

5:30am changed to sleet and freezing rain

6:10am- changed to light snow

7:45am- changed to sleet

8-9aam- cloudy

9am- steady freezing rain until 11:30am

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The saving grace for those areas that are in the upper 20s to near freezing is that the precip looks quite intense. I haven't seen anyone here mention it but Wes Junker mentioned in another thread that when temps are above 26 or 27, you don't really get heavy freezing rain because it doesn't freeze fast enough... a lot tends to simply run off. That makes the QPF amounts look more dangerous than they actually might be. Plus, the large amount of warmer water flowing into the surface layer combined with rapid release of latent heat due to freezing tends to warm up the surface.

For places below 26 or so, approximately MQS-DYL-SMQ on north and west, you're toast.

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Reading, PA Cloudy 26 degrees, dropped from 28, 3 hrs ago

Total ice accumulation today was .1" Snow: trace

Timeline

1/31

10:30pm snow pellets off and on

2/1

3:45am light snow

5:30am changed to sleet and freezing rain

6:10am- changed to light snow

7:45am- changed to sleet

8-9aam- cloudy

9am- steady freezing rain until 11:30am

I'm surprised we're colder than you. Down to 25.8 here from 26.4 about an hour ago.

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The saving grace for those areas that are in the upper 20s to near freezing is that the precip looks quite intense. I haven't seen anyone here mention it but Wes Junker mentioned in another thread that when temps are above 26 or 27, you don't really get heavy freezing rain because it doesn't freeze fast enough... a lot tends to simply run off. That makes the QPF amounts look more dangerous than they actually might be. Plus, the large amount of warmer water flowing into the surface layer combined with rapid release of latent heat due to freezing tends to warm up the surface.

For places below 26 or so, approximately MQS-DYL-SMQ on north and west, you're toast.

Where are MQS-DYL-SMQ?

How about RDG-ABE

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The saving grace for those areas that are in the upper 20s to near freezing is that the precip looks quite intense. I haven't seen anyone here mention it but Wes Junker mentioned in another thread that when temps are above 26 or 27, you don't really get heavy freezing rain because it doesn't freeze fast enough... a lot tends to simply run off. That makes the QPF amounts look more dangerous than they actually might be. Plus, the large amount of warmer water flowing into the surface layer combined with rapid release of latent heat due to freezing tends to warm up the surface.

For places below 26 or so, approximately MQS-DYL-SMQ on north and west, you're toast.

I like to eat toast! I don't want to be toast! Been spritzing lightly here in W. Allentown since I made it back from Quakertown at 5:30. Tonight is gonna be one heck of a doozy!

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MQS = Coatesville, Chester County

DYL = Doylestown, Bucks County

SMQ = Somerville, Somerset County

Looks like New Brunswick proper is just too far SE to really be in the bullseye for this event. We're holding steady at 26F for now although we have been dropping the last few hours so we'll see if we can squeak out a few more degrees.

26F/25F here with light freezing drizzle. Untreated sidewalks are glazed.

Edit: Speaking of Ray, with your tradition of how to measure snow threads, maybe you could make a thread about how to correctly measure ice? :) Most people here haven't ever dealt with measuring significant icing.

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