LVblizzard Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 RR precip through 14z tomorrow. All of it is frozen north of DYL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Unfortunately I would have to lean more towards NAM temps because of its high resolution. I agree, plus the GFS is a little faster with the precip. thus giving us the major ice a few hours earlier than the NAM, then warming it up a littler earlier too. Either way the damage may be done using either model in the 6-9 hr. time span that freezing rain appears to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I posted last night that models would struggle in this set up and bust too high on temps, but with that strong southerly flow ahead of heavy moisture, it may just get above freezing leaving us with only .25" CAD is starting to strengthen in the northern burbs. NAM's been better for the most part today with regards to today at PHL. Snowpack is a factor as well. Even the hi res variables used by the SPC have PHL not reaching freezing until 6 AM, with the burbs staying subfreezing until 8, 9, or later depending on location. If this were late Feb I'd be inclined to agree with the GFS but not on 2/2 with a foot of snow on the ground in the burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Sparta, NW NJ 5PM Temp: 19 DP: 17 Wind: N @ 3 Pressure: 1023.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief83 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I agree, plus the GFS is a little faster with the precip. thus giving us the major ice a few hours earlier than the NAM, then warming it up a littler earlier too. Either way the damage may be done using either model in the 6-9 hr. time span that freezing rain appears to fall. Do you think we are far enough north. Seems like we are on the edge. My temp is just now starting to drop. I guess the sun setting is making the difference. Earlier I was out for the mail. My mailbox faces south. The east side was all ice. The west side (getting what there was of the sun was all melted off. . I thought that was pretty interesting. (Maybe I'm easily amused). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 If this were late Feb I'd be inclined to agree with the GFS but not on 2/2 with a foot of snow on the ground in the burbs. This sums up my thoughts perfectly. I expect any travel tomorrow morning before 9 AM to be extremely hazardous, and there is a definite chance in our areas of 0.5"+ of ice on tree limbs and power lines. Nasty stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Man Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 KPHI is seeking glaze THICKNESS reports thru the night and wed morning. pls give us the sfc measured. Conservative values. any damage reports will be helpful...inclusive of power outages. i dont think power outages will begin until sometime between 4 am and 8am wed. wd How do we report? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I have to call BS on the KPNE 22z ob: it was 31° at 20z and 21z. Now it's 35°. Meanwhile, 6 miles away IMBY, it's 30.2°, and has been slightly dropping from 30.6° when I got home at 3:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Just 22F here in West Allentown. Cold air holding strong. Tonight and tomorrow morning will be VERY interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Do you think we are far enough north. Seems like we are on the edge. My temp is just now starting to drop. I guess the sun setting is making the difference. Earlier I was out for the mail. My mailbox faces south. The east side was all ice. The west side (getting what there was of the sun was all melted off. . I thought that was pretty interesting. (Maybe I'm easily amused). Extremely tough call, I want to think that by a few hours after daybreak (at the latest) we will climb above 32. That still allows ice to accrue between about midnight and 7 or 8am...when the models spit out easily a 1/2" of QPF. The damage could be done by then regardless of whether it changes over after that. I think things will be worse just to our north (northern Mont./Berks/northern Bucks) where the models show the cold air holding a few hours longer. Like you said, we are on the edge with regards to big problems I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 How do we report? Just put the information right here in a post. eventually I'll check among the other things we need to do here in the office. tx wd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 difficult to blv PNE ob. wd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 3 degree temperature drop in the past 45 minutes here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Some good maps to watch the next 12-18 hours, available from climate.rutgers.edu : Hybrid temperature/radar map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 22 in Palmer Twp. I didn't replace the battery in my VP2 so my temp readings will be offline for a few hours in the morning until the solar cells recover some juice...which should take a while given the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unknown Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 HRRR shows a longer and heavier ice storm Total precip by 10z, .5"-1" ice from Baltimore and north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Just 22F here in West Allentown. Cold air holding strong. Tonight and tomorrow morning will be VERY interesting. Still warmer here then there. 27.3 at 5:40PM. Outside of SE PA, just from seeing some of the other temp reports, I swear we are warmer than most other locations in Eastern PA. Just amazing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 22.3f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAPPG Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Getting colder and looking more like a ZR event here in NW Montco. Temp down to 25 from high of 29. Winds NNE 2-4 G7 Barometer creeping up a bit after steady fall from 10pm last nite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 20z HRRR at 6am, all of PA is still sub-freezing, along with I-95 and wets in NJ. over 0.50" area-wide by that point. I'll say it again...gulp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I still have a tough time believing that PHL-TTN is below freezing with the strength of the LLJ at 850 and 925 and the likely vertical mixing at 6-7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Still warmer here then there. 27.3 at 5:40PM. Outside of SE PA. Just from seeing some of the other temp reports, I swear we are warmer than most other locations in Eastern PA. Just amazing... I'm gonna get called out for this, but is it at all possible your higher elevation (Tamaqua is ~1000 ft., right?) has you sitting in the bottom of the warmer pocket aloft? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Belmar & Lakehurst have been dropping all afternoon, both now below freezing & both down 7 degrees from their 12pm highs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm gonna get called out for this, but is it at all possible your higher elevation (Tamaqua is ~1000 ft., right?) has you sitting in the bottom of the warmer pocket aloft? 825 at my house, but it's possible you are right about being in a warm pocket, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Interesting what those hi res models are spitting out here. Down to 27.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 825 at my house, but it's possible you are right about being in a warm pocket, who knows. Didn't you guys spike to 40 degrees during V-Day 07? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 20z HRRR at 6am, all of PA is still sub-freezing, along with I-95 and wets in NJ. over 0.50" area-wide by that point. I'll say it again...gulp. I know that the HRRR has been very good with precip. amounts and arrival times this year. However, there was never a case where we were really focusing on the temperature so I don't know its past performance record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 PNE dropped from 35 to 30. Whatever caused the spike seems to have been corrected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Currently IP/ZR. Cars are coated and other things are becoming coated with ice already. Not a good start. Still 20.8F. I'm gonna get called out for this, but is it at all possible your higher elevation (Tamaqua is ~1000 ft., right?) has you sitting in the bottom of the warmer pocket aloft? I've said that before too in previous events, although I'm sure he will see a fair share of ice with this one. Cold air gets entrenched in the valleys and it stays colder there longer than the mountaintops sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Think vertical mxg will jhave negligible impact PHL northward due to dense cold air trapped blo in version... i think the way to warm phl is turn the wind east and pull it in from the sst. max pres falls w new wave developemnt in del bay 12z wed... bad news for e wind PHL i think...limited experience with this in PHI area but pres fall centers and or pres fall-rise couplets are pretty good guides on wind deviating from geostrophic norm. wd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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