BethlehemBlizzard Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 lots of precip. That is an absolute beauty. What an amazing area covered by snow. It's a shame that isn't creeping up the east coast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Question for the pros wrt PHL tomorrow... raw NAM has held steady with temps of 35-36 for several runs while the raw GFS jumped for 40-45 between 0z and 12z. I tend to not agree with the GFS' output (resolution + snow pack)...am I not alone? Trying to figure out why folks are forecasting 40's (not 40, but like mid 40's) for Philly tomorrow...is it a simple and pure GFS MOS dry hump? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 ...ICE STORM TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND A LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WEST AND NORTH OF PHILADELPHIA... .LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT WILL REFORM IN THE WATERS EAST OF NEW JERSEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN QUICKLY DEPART FOR THE MARITIMES WEDNESDAY EVENING. NJZ009-010-012-015-PAZ060-067>069-020400- /O.CAN.KPHI.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110202T2100Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.IS.W.0001.110201T1949Z-110202T2100Z/ HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-BERKS-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY- BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE... NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...READING...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN... DOYLESTOWN 249 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011 ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ...THIS REPLACES WINTER STORM WARNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED AN ICE STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. * AREAS AFFECTED: WEST CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF PHILADELPHIA. * PRECIPITATION TYPES: FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS: GLAZE ACCUMULATIONS OF FOUR TO SEVEN TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THIS AREA BY 10 AM WEDNESDAY. ALREADY AT 2 PM... THERE HAS BEEN A REPORT OF ONE TENTH INCH OF GLAZE FROM THIS MORNINGS FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE. * TIMING: SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BECOME A STEADY FREEZING RAIN LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN OCCASIONALLY HEAVY FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 3 AM AND 9AM WEDNESDAY BEFORE IT ENDS AS DRIZZLE DURING MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE FREEZING RAIN WILL BRIEFLY MIX WITH SLEET FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. * IMPACTS: TRAVEL WILL BECOME TREACHEROUS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY ON ALL UNTREATED SURFACES. POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED FROM BREAKING TREE LIMBS AND WIRES WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF GLAZE WERE TO EXCEED THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH...THIS WOULD RAISE THE POTENTIAL FOR DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES. THE WEDNESDAY COMMUTE WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... AN ICE STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SNAPPED POWER LINES AND FALLING TREE BRANCHES THAT ADD TO THE DANGER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Ice Storm Warning now in effect for the Poconos and Lehigh Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DerekZ Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 A few questions for real-time tracking / nowcasting: 1. What short-term models handle temperature profiles the best? How about precipitation start time and intensity? I was impressed by the HRRR's performance on the 1/26 - 1/27 event so I have that bookmarked, but how does that typically compare to the RUC or MM5? Are there other short-term models to consider? I will continue looking at NAM/RGEM as well. 2. Is the SPC Hourly Mesoscale analysis the best representation of surface temps vs. temps aloft? 3. Any other tips for nowcasting ice events besides watching temp profiles and radar watching? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethlehemBlizzard Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Ice Storm Warning now in effect for the Poconos and Lehigh Valley Anyone know the last time the LV had an Ice Storm Warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 If the 18z NAM is right Lancaster and Berks are f**ked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Anyone know the last time the LV had an Ice Storm Warning? Lets hope they are wrong and it warms up and rains. Significant icing would be a major problem for LV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 nam sounding for abe gets to 0.1c at hr21 after precip then drops below 0c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Looks grim on the 18z NAM from LNS- RDG-PTW-DYL-TTN on north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 sleet would help! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 yes it would, are models pinpointing on that anywhere in our area over frz. rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Looks grim on the 18z NAM from LNS- RDG-PTW-DYL-TTN on north Can someone give me the link to soundings for TTN? I know how to change for various locaqtions (DYL, NXX, Etc) but need the link as I don't have it. TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Hopefully it's just the 18z NAM's cold bias at work here. Temp just below freezing at 31.1 with a light mist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 ttn warms.. +0.3c at 18hr and +3.8c at 21hr hazwoper.. www.twisterdata.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 249 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011 ...ICE STORM TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND A LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WEST AND NORTH OF PHILADELPHIA... .LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT WILL REFORM IN THE WATERS EAST OF NEW JERSEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN QUICKLY DEPART FOR THE MARITIMES WEDNESDAY EVENING. NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-061-062-020400- /O.CAN.KPHI.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110202T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.IS.W.0001.110201T1949Z-110202T2300Z/ SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN... JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON 249 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011 ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ...THIS REPLACES THE WINTER STORM WARNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED AN ICE STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. * AREAS AFFECTED: NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY. * PRECIPITATION TYPES: HEAVY FREEZING RAIN. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SLEET OCCURS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY NEW JERSEY. * ACCUMULATIONS: GLAZE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED BY 10 AM WEDNESDAY. IF SLEET OCCURS... GLAZE ACCUMULATION WOULD BE LESS BUT SLEET COULD ACCUMULATE ONE HALF INCH. * TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S THROUGHOUT THIS STORM. * TIMING: SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN PROGRESS WILL INTENSIFY TO FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THE WORST OF THE GLAZING SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 3 AM AND 9 AM WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION TAPERS TO DRIZZLE EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS: TRAVEL WILL BECOME TREACHEROUS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY ON ALL UNTREATED SURFACES. POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED FROM BREAKING TREE LIMBS AND WIRES WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF GLAZE EXCEEDS THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH...THIS WOULD RAISE THE POTENTIAL FOR DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES. THE WEDNESDAY COMMUTE WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... AN ICE STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SNAPPED POWER LINES AND FALLING TREE BRANCHES THAT ADD TO THE DANGER. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Greater than .5" ice probabilities: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Glad I topped off on Kerosene yesterday. Getting harder and harder to find it these days. The one hope I see is perhaps an extended period of sleet putting a dent in the qpf thus reducing amount availble for freezing rain. This may help some areas in NW NJ, SE NY and the Poconos but still a very dicy 18 hours coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 ttn warms.. +0.3c at 18hr and +3.8c at 21hr hazwoper.. www.twisterdata.com Thanks, that site is great, but when I drag and click plot new sounding it plots it for a different location then where I drug it hmmmmmm Also, anyone have the text output for soundings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Thanks, that site is great, but when I drag and click plot new sounding it plots it for a different location then where I drug it hmmmmmm after you move it then pick new location.. i think its called new location... Also, anyone have the text output for soundings? pick text for text output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foggy Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 KPHI is seeking glaze THICKNESS reports thru the night and wed morning. pls give us the sfc measured. Conservative values. any damage reports will be helpful...inclusive of power outages. i dont think power outages will begin until sometime between 4 am and 8am wed. wd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 KPHI is seeking glaze THICKNESS reports thru the night and wed morning. pls give us the sfc measured. Conservative values. any damage reports will be helpful...inclusive of power outages. i dont think power outages will begin until sometime between 4 am and 8am wed. wd Walt it has been a pleasure reading ur disscussions this winter...really top notch....thankyou 26.7 here in edison....27 at new brunswick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 KPHI is seeking glaze THICKNESS reports thru the night and wed morning. pls give us the sfc measured. Conservative values. any damage reports will be helpful...inclusive of power outages. i dont think power outages will begin until sometime between 4 am and 8am wed. wd Thanks for posting here. I know you will be busy during the storm but please keep us informed here as well with updates! Temp holding steady here 20.8F. This is going to be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Gulp. SUGGEST THAT THOSE LIVING ALONG AND NW OF KCDW-KMMU-KSMQ-KDYL-KMQS BE PREPARED WITH BATTERY POWERED EQUIPMENT FOR POSSIBLE POWEROUTAGES WED MORNING IF THIS IS AN ALL FREEZING RAIN EVENT THROUGH 9 AM WED. SEVERAL HOURS OF ALL SLEET WOULD HELP LIMIT DAMAGING GLAZE POTENTIALIN NW NJ AND NE PA...WHICH IS POSSIBLE...BUT DIFFICULT TO SEE ANYTHINGMORE THAN AN HOUR OF SLEET OCCURRING KABE SOUTHWARD IN THIS EVENT.ALL CELL PHONES ETC SHOULD BE FULLY CHARGED. COULD BE SEVERAL HOURSWITHOUT POWER TOMORROW WHERE EVER GLAZE EXCEEDS 1/2 INCH. SUBFREEZING SFC AIR IS CIRCLING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE WATERSOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AT 21Z. 25-28F NEAR SANDY HOOK NOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Man, I don't know what to think here. Being in the Central Bucks area not sure if I will see more than 1/4" of ice, but soundings based off the NAM sure seem to be leaning that way. While not a snow storm, I must say this system is a bit more interesting to track in terms of evolution of surface temps and onset of heavier precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Wow, 18z GFS on twisterdata website has over 0.50" by 9z across SE PA. 0.75"+ by 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Wow, 18z GFS on twisterdata website has over 0.50" by 9z across SE PA. 0.75"+ by 12z. much warmer than the NAM though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 much warmer than the NAM though Unfortunately I would have to lean more towards NAM temps because of its high resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Unfortunately I would have to lean more towards NAM temps because of its high resolution. I posted last night that models would struggle in this set up and bust too high on temps, but with that strong southerly flow ahead of heavy moisture, it may just get above freezing leaving us with only .25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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