ezweather Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Connection is aweful getting to their site and NCEP site is really slow. Accessing the models is very slow. Not sure whats going on, but not fast.. Anyone have news out of mount holly? NOAA is running real slow, not at all, wondering if they decided on Ice storm warnings, or if anyone has link for updated discussions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Anyone have news out of mount holly? NOAA is running real slow, not at all, wondering if they decided on Ice storm warnings, or if anyone has link for updated discussions? The whole NWS has been in county zone mode since at least yesterday. There's a mjaor outage with NOAA somewhere. Anyway, here's the latest from Hayes in the AFD: FOR THE AREA WITH THE WATCH IN PLACE...THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVESLATER...POTENTIALLY BETWEEN 0900 UTC AND 1200 UTC WEDNESDAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT THAT JUNCTURE WILL BE CLOSE TO CRITICAL. THE 0000 UTC NAM AND GFS 2 METER TEMPERATURES ARE JUST ABOVE FREEZING...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE MOS VALUES FOR EACH MODEL. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION ALONE...IT WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH THE THREAT FOR ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE WOULD BE DIMINISHING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL AGEOSTROPHIC WINDS WILL STILL BE NORTH...AND FAIRLY STRONG. THIS COULD BE AIDED BY THE FACT THERE IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL AGEOSTROPHIC WINDS ARE IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE FORECAST EAST SURFACE WIND AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 925 MB. IT WOULD BE APPEAR AS THOUGH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR NEAR ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHEAST MARYLAND...NORTHERN DELAWARE (NEAR KILG) AND KPHL. HPC PROBABILITIES OF ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH IS BORDERLINE THROUGH 1200 UTC WEDNESDAY AS WELL. RIGHT NOW...IT IS SIMPLY TOO CLOSE TO CALL FOR THE ABOVEMENTIONED AREA. THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION IS CLOSE TO THE TIME WHEN IT APPEARS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK AS THOUGH THEY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK AS THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION ARRIVES. THE WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE. IF MORE DEFINITIVE INFORMATION ARRIVES LATER THIS MORNING...THIS COULD CHANGE. some mixed signals in there as well. No matter how much we try to analyze it, this is a wait-and-see storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Theres actually an outage at some of the major internet backbones this morning; Verizon, NTT, Qwuest, etc. all experiencing outages due to the massive storm. A lot of sites on the internet are slow, unresponsive, etc. But to answer your question - I have not seen any updates, P+C forecasts are also N/A. That explains why I have had such trouble with intermittent connectivity,...Thank you for the update! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 15z RR has heavy ZR north of a line from BWI-ILG-TTN at 4am tomorrow morning. South of there is a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 some mixed signals in there as well. No matter how much we try to analyze it, this is a wait-and-see storm. Yeah, it's not easy in these situation to predict exactly where the line will be between not much of an ice storm and a bad ice storm tomorrow morning. I've been saying since yesterday that I think PHL and points south/east should not have much of an issue with icing (if any) for tomorrow morning's rush hour...and the Lehigh Valley on north/northwest will likely have a bad icing situation. For those of us in between (Bucks, Montgomery, Chester and even northern Delaware County)...it's pretty much a wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unknown Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 RUC is interesting, shows heaviest precip in SE PA changing from freezing rain to sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yeah, it's not easy in these situation to predict exactly where the line will be between not much of an ice storm and a bad ice storm tomorrow morning. I've been saying since yesterday that I think PHL and points south/east should not have much of an issue with icing (if any) for tomorrow morning's rush hour...and the Lehigh Valley on north/northwest will likely have a bad icing situation. For those of us in between (Bucks, Montgomery, Chester and even northern Delaware County)...it's pretty much a wait and see. Well I made it from Allentown to work in Quakertown, ALlentowns roads were horrendous this morning, even Lehigh Street was dicey, 309 not bad, concerned about the commute home, thinking I might leave at about 4pm, though the roads in Quakertown have an icy glaze on them already. Kids are still in school too, so it should be interesting to see how the rest of the day works out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Echo Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Temperatures here in New Castle County have fallen a little since a slight rise this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Latest Wxsim program with the 12z data is not very encouraging for NW Chester County It has almost 0.75" of ZR falling between 1 and 6am...see Wxsim text forecast ouput below...I have never seen it forecast that much ice before. Don't remember too many Ice Warnings from Mt Holly but....would not be surprised to see one later. Tonight: Dense overcast. A chance of a mix of freezing rain and sleet in the evening, then a mix of freezing rain and sleet likely after midnight. Low 26, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind east around 3 mph in the evening, becoming 8 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between half an inch and one inch. No ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.7 inches. Currently Freezing Fog Temp 26.9 RH 92% DP 24.9 Wind N at 4 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Temperatures here in New Castle County have fallen a little since a slight rise this morning. I noticed this as well, CAD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Assuming my current temp of 23F holds, the forecasted temp on the NAM for 18z will bust about 4 degrees tooo high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSU2 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Assuming my current temp of 23F holds, the forecasted temp on the NAM for 18z will bust about 4 degrees tooo high. Just dropped to 30F at PHL. Interesting winds have gone northerly over the last hour or so. This far south going to be a borderline situation but something needs to be monitored closely given surface obs, etc. ERIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 a monster! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm sure most of you use this site already as I do too. I never use the nws site for anything but the snow/ice maps. otherwise, use the COD site. it has everything you need. http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 PTW - 12z models @ 18z NAM: 29 18z GFS: 33 Currently @18z: 28 (4 miles east of PTW airport) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Getting some freezing drizzle now on top of 3-4 inches of snow in Wilkes-Barre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 PTW - 12z models @ 18z NAM: 29 18z GFS: 33 Currently @18z: 28 (4 miles east of PTW airport) RAW GFS is forecasting 45 for PHL tomorrow and 38 for PTW. Methinks something is going to bust badly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Critical thicknesses: Freezing level: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/sfctest/new/viewsector.php?sector=16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I really think this lull in precip is going to allow the severity of the main storm to catch a lot of people by surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 While everyone is seeing cooling temps, mine are rising. 24.3*F, up nearly a full degree in the last hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 While everyone is seeing cooling temps, mine are rising. 24.3*F, up nearly a full degree in the last hour or so. Wierd it's 27 here in Ardmore down 2 degrees in 3 hours and still dropping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottium Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Mine has gone up 2 degrees since noon. Now at 29.4 Wierd it's 27 here in Ardmore down 2 degrees in 3 hours and still dropping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm right on the freezing line here. Went out to get the mail earlier and it was drizzling, but no icy worries. Melting like crazy off the roof tops too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Mine has gone up 2 degrees since noon. Now at 29.4 Where are you at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 some type of misty drizzle...atm in control of the regional high of 30-31 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottium Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Parkesburg, PA (western Chester county) Where are you at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FUCK JOE BIDEN Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 29F steady since this morning, 1/10" or so inch buildup on the trees and power lines roads are just wet where treated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm not quite as gung-ho for big ice in NJ south of the TTN- SMQ-EWR corridor with that LLJ at 850 and 925. Southerly winds in the 50-60kt range are going to really mix that layer quick imo, and with the best thermal gradient well away from the surface low, I am liking the idea of the LLJ exerting influence earlier than later. I think we see the cold scoured out here with the arrival of precipitation. I'm going with <.25 and plain rain by 7am in my current thinking around those places. 202 and 78 corridors are another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 While everyone is seeing cooling temps, mine are rising. 24.3*F, up nearly a full degree in the last hour or so. Mine have slowly been creeping upward as well. 27.3 here at the current time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 lots of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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