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PHL CWA Feb 1-2 Storm OBS and Discussion


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right at freezing in New Castle County. Drive to work was uneventfull for me, but I drove like Grandma cuz I hate ice and when it's ZR it's hard to tell if the road is wet or icy.

On weather underground ILG is at 31 where other areas are around 32.

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6z GFS had me progged at 32 for 15z (PNE). PNE is currently reporting 30.

I have a running spreadhseet of the forecast 2m temps from 21z Tue thru 18z Wed to compare to the actual tonight. Anyone know where I can find archived NAM data (actual 2m temps, like from WxCaster)?

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Notice on the 12z NAM that our temps drop fast tonight after 21z. The 3z temp for PNE is 25.6! Yesterday's 18z GFS, the coldest of the past 4 runs, was 30. This morning's 6z has a 3z Wed temp of 33.

7.4-degree spread doesn't make me happy.

Also of note, the 12z NAM is colder at 0z, 3z, 6z and 9z Wed. Then it's warmer at 12z. Anyone care to comment on that rather drastic drop in temps tonight per the NAM? What's especially odd is how fast temps recover.

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Had 0.1" of snow/graupel overnight and of course some freezing frizzle and mist this morning to make the sidewalk and driveway a skating rink. Thankfully, the roads were pretty well treated and I had no issues driving to work. Just a light mist now with a temp of 27 near Lansdale, PA.

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Notice on the 12z NAM that our temps drop fast tonight after 21z. The 3z temp for PNE is 25.6! Yesterday's 18z GFS, the coldest of the past 4 runs, was 30. This morning's 6z has a 3z Wed temp of 33.

7.4-degree spread doesn't make me happy.

Also of note, the 12z NAM is colder at 0z, 3z, 6z and 9z Wed. Then it's warmer at 12z. Anyone care to comment on that rather drastic drop in temps tonight per the NAM? What's especially odd is how fast temps recover.

On the Nam, it has to do with the arrival of the heavy precip. Through 9z PNE has next to nothing , then from 9z-12z heavy precip. moves in and temps. jump

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Anyone care to comment on that rather drastic drop in temps tonight per the NAM? What's especially odd is how fast temps recover.

Probably due to a slight wind shift as the first system moves out (more easterly than SErly) allowing for cold air from high up north to drain in more cold at the surface. Once the larger system moves in and wind get strong from the S/SE, temps rise quickly.

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On the Nam, it has to do with the arrival of the heavy precip. Through 9z PNE has next to nothing , then from 9z-12z heavy precip. moves in and temps. jump

If we really fall to 26 tonight, I have a hrd time believing we get above freezing before 12z. Although I also have a hard time believing we get to 26 tonight in the first place....

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Can you please take a chill pill? I like you, but sometimes you are Hazleton's version of Colin. You may be right, but then again who actually knows what the end result will be? Why not just let the storm play itself out and see what we finish with?

I don't know why he's rooting for ICE anyway. I'd rather plain rain if it can't be a full blown snowstorm.

Measured 3" of snow at my house. Temps risen from 17 to 22 in the past 3 hours.

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I have a question..below is the AFD for the Quad cities and the NAM forecast vs/ realtime..will this strengthening affect our snow/ice/rain forecast?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL

704 AM CST TUE FEB 1 2011

.UPDATE...

VERIFICATION AT 12Z INDICATES STORM SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING

AT A RATE AS FAST OR FASTER THAN PROJECTIONS. COMPARING DATA...PLUS

USING NUMEROUS TECHNIQUES SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY NOT ONLY BE

STRONGER...BUT COULD OCCLUDE OR WRAP UP MORE THAN PLANNED BACK

TOWARD OUR AREA. IF THIS OCCURS...THIS COULD RESULT IN EVEN HIGHER

SNOW TOTALS...SNOW-FALL RATES AND POSSIBLE THUNDER-SNOW OVER AT

LEAST THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IT ALSO MAY RESULT IN

SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS FOR MORE SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

THIS RISK SHOULD BE CONFIRMED IN THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS.

NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED...BUT INDICATIONS CLEARLY SUPPORT THIS WILL

NOT ONLY BE A MAJOR STORM OF NEAR HISTORIC PROPORTIONS...BUT MAY

BE A BIT STRONGER FOR AT LEAST OUR SE 1/2 LOCATIONS THAN IS CURRENTLY

FORECASTED.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/validProds.php?prod=AFD&node=KDVN

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Anyone have news out of mount holly? NOAA is running real slow, not at all, wondering if they decided on Ice storm warnings, or if anyone has link for updated discussions?

Theres actually an outage at some of the major internet backbones this morning; Verizon, NTT, Qwuest, etc. all experiencing outages due to the massive storm. A lot of sites on the internet are slow, unresponsive, etc.

But to answer your question - I have not seen any updates, P+C forecasts are also N/A.

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