JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 light snow with sleet mixed in here in Marlboro, NJ monmouth county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The 0z NAM had no snow for South Jersey? Already wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I had a feeling based on the radar that it might be mixed with sleet right from the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I had a feeling based on the radar that it might be mixed with sleet right from the start. You've got to let us in on some of these feeling a little sooner, Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 bufkit ice totals for select locations for 00z NAM RDG- .84" frz rain, .02 sleet, .2 rain ABE- .96 frz rain. .04 sleet, .12 rain PHL- .22 frz rain. .04 sleet 1.05" rain AVP- .85 frz rain, .15 sleet no rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Snow/sleet amounts dropped south of I-78 (and rightfully so) by the NWS...they can probably cut those numbers in 1/2 again in those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 It comes down to the depth/strength of the warm layer, and whether it can fully melt all solid parts into a rain drop. If that happens, and the bottom cold layer is never below -8ºC, then you will maintain a supercooled droplet since it cannot form back into a solid. If a little solid ice makes it through the warm layer, then whatever part has melted to liquid can refreeze around that into a sleet pellet when its below 0ºc. In the case where it fully melts in the warm layer to a droplet, it can refreeze into an ice pellet only if the surface cold layer reaches below -8ºc (pretty rare in these setups). Technically incorrect. You're confusing kinetics with thermodynamics. Supercooled water droplets will eventually freeze into the thermodynamically-favored lower energy state of ice at 32F, but it typically takes a long time (slow kinetics or rate of freezing) for it to do that in the absence of a cold (<32F) solid surface or ice crystal, i.e., far in excess of the time it takes for the supercooled drop to traverse the cold layer of air above the surface. The drop will, however, freeze instantly upon contact with a solid surface that is below 32F, as the solid surface acts exactly like an ice "seed" particle for the supercooled water droplet to reach the thermodynamically favored solid state of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 bufkit ice totals for select locations for 00z NAM RDG- .84" frz rain, .02 sleet, .2 rain ABE- .96 frz rain. .04 sleet, .12 rain PHL- .22 frz rain. .04 sleet 1.05" rain AVP- .85 frz rain, .15 sleet no rain LNS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Snow/sleet amounts dropped south of I-78 (and rightfully so) by the NWS...they can probably cut those numbers in 1/2 again in those areas. too much mixing or not enough precip altogether? FWIW the HRRR keeps us all in 1-2" overnight. The main WAA show wasn't even supposed to start until after 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 bufkit ice totals for select locations for 00z NAM RDG- .84" frz rain, .02 sleet, .2 rain ABE- .96 frz rain. .04 sleet, .12 rain AVP- .85 frz rain, .15 sleet no rain Brutal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 too much mixing or not enough precip altogether? FWIW the HRRR keeps us all in 1-2" overnight. The main WAA show wasn't even supposed to start until after 06z. I think a little of both (for us near and south of the PA Turnpike). I'd be shocked to see 2 inches in our necks of the woods honestly, but I can and have been wrong plenty this winter. I could see a solid covering to an inch though if the radar stays like it is off to the west. That main slug of precip. in the Ohio Valley should pass mainly to our north overnight. Here's the 00z GFS between 6z-18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I think a little of both (for us near and south of the PA Turnpike). I'd be shocked to see 2 inches in our necks of the woods honestly, but I can and have been wrong plenty this winter. I could see a solid covering to an inch though if the radar stays like it is off to the west. That main slug of precip. in the Ohio Valley should pass mainly to our north overnight. Here's the 00z GFS between 6z-18z Yeah I'm leaning closer to the 1" for MBY (and my 2-3" is going to bust badly but oh well) but I think 0.7" or wtv the NWS has might actually be too low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 It'll probably be 3-6" north of I-78 and 1-3" south of I-78. Of course I'm right along I-78 where bust potential is higher than most places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 It'll probably be 3-6" north of I-78 and 1-3" south of I-78. Of course I'm right along I-78 where bust potential is higher than most places. If you get that slug of moisture from the Ohio Valley later tonight, you should get several inches, if it grazes by to your north.....maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 If you get that slug of moisture from the Ohio Valley later tonight, you should get several inches, if it grazes by to your north.....maybe not. It'll be really close here. I think we get the south edge of it with the heavier bands in the Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Hopefully you get into it up there. Down here, it looks like crunch time is between 6z Wed. and 15z Wed. Temperatures vs. precipitation. What happens sooner, temperatures rise above freezing, or does heavy precipitation fall prior to a changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 It'll be really close here. I think we get the south edge of it with the heavier bands in the Poconos. I think you guys will see 3-6", that was the final call I posted in the amateur maps thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 bufkit ice totals for select locations for 00z NAM RDG- .84" frz rain, .02 sleet, .2 rain ABE- .96 frz rain. .04 sleet, .12 rain PHL- .22 frz rain. .04 sleet 1.05" rain AVP- .85 frz rain, .15 sleet no rain That would be the biggest and most damaging ice storm in years for this area taking the NAM verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 GFS further north (probably a bit too far?) with the freezing line at 12z Wednesday Here is the 12z Wed. NAM for comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 a bit bummed w/the guidance for tonight. Models shifted a hair north, I think the 5-6 inch calls from earlier today will not verify in NJ, unless in extreme NW Sussex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 GFS further north (probably a bit too far?) with the freezing line at 12z Wednesday No way it's that warm, look to the north and you'll see why that won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 That would be the biggest and most damaging ice storm in years for this area taking the NAM verbatim. Noreaster07, could you give FWN and TTN? I don't have BufKit on my home PC, sadly (this old thing really needs to be replaced) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 GFS further north (probably a bit too far?) with the freezing line at 12z Wednesday I thought the same thing but then if you follow the precip it just seems like its faster (maybe a touch warmer) but not to the extent of just comparinf "same time valid as" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 No way it's that warm, look to the north and you'll see why that won't happen. I think that high may be a bit too far north to impact things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Great point, the GFS looks a tad milder, but it may just be the fact the precip. (and ice accumulation) has occured quicker by 12z Wed. than shown earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Noreaster07, could you give FWN and TTN? I don't have BufKit on my home PC, sadly (this old thing really needs to be replaced) TTN- .4" Frz Rain, .08" sleet, .78" rain closest I have to sussex is MMU MMU- .64 Frz Rain, .24" sleet, 1.43" rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beamer Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 KPYW anybody? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Reality check: 0Z NAM versus actual soundings: IAD Obs NAM 925 -4.7 -4.9 850 -2.1 -2.6 800 -0.5 0.0 WAL Obs NAM 925 0.2 -0.1 850 0.6 1.5 800 0.0 -1.2 OKX Obs NAM 925 -8.5 -8.1 850 -6.3 -6.2 800 -5.1 -6.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAPPG Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I think i might be on the edge here in NW montco. 27/16 here now, seeing much colder temps just to north and west. Barometer tending slightly down and winds varying NE to SE, mostly ESE @ 5-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 TTN- .4" Frz Rain, .08" sleet, .78" rain closest I have to sussex is MMU MMU- .64 Frz Rain, .24" sleet, 1.43" rain MMU looks close to being all frozen on the 0z gfs (using the 3hr soundings I have) up by me it tops out at 29* at 48hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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