Quakertown needs snow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 For purposes of comparison. What to believe? its so close around 32f at surface.... it really doesn't look good for many per 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 12z Nam would keep it mainly snow and sleet here in Hazleton.. Based on what I can see on my phone.. Any opinions? yea you look mainly snow to sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 abe is below freezing the whole event. HR 51they have a surface temp -1c...According to nam abe is mainly sleet this would be a huge + for many... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 12z Nam would keep it mainly snow and sleet here in Hazleton.. Based on what I can see on my phone.. Any opinions? it looks close, and even as it gets marginal the precip rates increase. Your are nearing the 2" qpf mark. Trends are certainly good. The 850' critical line moved south about 20 miles from 0z. (still a long way to go here though.) Also, the initial slug of snow looks more impressive, especially for you and areas to your north. (3-6"+?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 you can see a trend here, 6z and 18z runs are colder but every 0z and 12z run are colder then the previous. If its really true that the cad holds on longer than usual, things could get bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 the zombies but they're in the other thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 this would be a huge + for many... the corridor that is looking ugly is prob the lns to dyl area and just south, thats the freezing rain zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoD Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 12z Nam would keep it mainly snow and sleet here in Hazleton.. Based on what I can see on my phone.. Any opinions? This would be huge. Sleet causes a lot leas damage. I feel however, we'll have a lot ZR. D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 you can see a trend here, 6z and 18z runs are colder but every 0z and 12z run are colder then the previous. If its really true that the cad holds on longer than usual, things could get bad I think temp observations this AM say it all. The models (esp. the NAM now) are seeing it as we get closer. That cold air won't go easily and this could be a prolific ice storm anywhere JUST N and W of Philly. Simply prolific --- especially with a good deal of precip overnight. Just wow on that run. The pictures are going to be amazing after this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Debilitating ice in PA and NW NJ through 54. Absolutely crippling storm. If this in fact verifies, props given to Larry Cosgrove who nailed the ice signal 5 days ago. Wow on the NAM, just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I wouldn't discount Philly out of the ice problem area. MAybe not as much as say the LV/poconos. But if the NAM is showing some fz rain , especially overnight tues-wed morning, rush hour could be a mess. Even with just a .25" of ice. Not hyping, just want people to not get caught off guard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Very close to a lot of snow here...heck the overunning itself is warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Just think, remember how badly that first "Rain" storm busted a few weeks ago. And surface temps were expected to rise considerably above freezing for that one. Now we have the NAM showing surface temps at frz the entire event not too far NW of the city. Slight shift south could mean a devastating ice storm for almost all of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 12 hours ago I was hoping the models would come in warmer so I could get into the rain. Now I'm hoping they come in colder so I can get into the sleet. I have zero interest in a prolonged ZR event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Just think, remember how badly that first "Rain" storm busted a few weeks ago. And surface temps were expected to rise considerably above freezing for that one. Now we have the NAM showing surface temps at frz the entire event not too far NW of the city. Slight shift south could mean a devastating ice storm for almost all of PA. This is my first winter up in Bucks County, so I'm not as proficient in knowing the local geography up here as well as I did Delco. From what NAM is showing, we are in the fzra bullseye with well over 1/2"...downright scary. My wife says pick up rock salt. My reply was that a jackhammer might be a better option! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 12z NAM through hr 63 - southern NY gets boat loads of snow. Northern NJ gets tremendous sleet and southern PA gets tons of ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Speaking of the temp profiles, I live in Swedesboro NJ and just to point out the difference in surface temps b/c of the snow pack. When I left for my office at 7 AM it was 15 deg at my house . Once I crossed the Comm Barry bridge it was 24 deg 10 mins later. It shows you that rural areas where the snow pack isn't disrupted (plowing erc.) the surfaces temps are much lower and will have a tremendous afect on the FRZ rain situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Keep dropping that 1" QPF accumulated snow further south... this is the closest we've been to a major snowstorm since the Friday models (18z NAM yesterday nonwithstanding). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looking at national radar, precip is still way back in the midwest. Not sure this is going to start until sunup tomorrow? Or is that area supposed to expand quickly during the day? Local news was saying snow here by 9PM but doesn't seem like it will make it in that quickly to my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Speaking of the temp profiles, I live in Swedesboro NJ and just to point out the difference in surface temps b/c of the snow pack. When I left for my office at 7 AM it was 15 deg at my house . Once I crossed the Comm Barry bridge it was 24 deg 10 mins later. It shows you that rural areas where the snow pack isn't disrupted (plowing erc.) the surfaces temps are much lower and will have a tremendous afect on the FRZ rain situation. that's just radiational cooling. had it been overcast there would have been no difference in temp in the 2 locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looking at national radar, precip is still way back in the midwest. Not sure this is going to start until sunup tomorrow? Or is that area supposed to expand quickly during the day? Local news was saying snow here by 9PM but doesn't seem like it will make it in that quickly to my eyes. Well, WAA always comes in with a rush and ahead of schedule. I've been thinking just after midnight for the LV. 9pm seems too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Speaking of the temp profiles, I live in Swedesboro NJ and just to point out the difference in surface temps b/c of the snow pack. When I left for my office at 7 AM it was 15 deg at my house . Once I crossed the Comm Barry bridge it was 24 deg 10 mins later. It shows you that rural areas where the snow pack isn't disrupted (plowing erc.) the surfaces temps are much lower and will have a tremendous afect on the FRZ rain situation. This is a great post and something that needs to be watched. Same thing for me. It was 10 degrees in Media, PA this morning while the airport was showing 24 degrees at the very same time. With an event like this 2 degrees means so, so much and I'm talking even 31 versus 29. Frz rain has trouble accumulating too much right around 32 --- but once you dip below 30, it's a different story. South Central PA through Lehigh Valley will be decimated --- but down in Chesco, Delco and PHL --- serious issues cannot be ruled out, specifically the more 'rural' you are (as you so eloquently put!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Here's the 12z nam at 48: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This is a great post and something that needs to be watched. Same thing for me. It was 10 degrees in Media, PA this morning while the airport was showing 24 degrees at the very same time. With an event like this 2 degrees means so, so much and I'm talking even 31 versus 29. Frz rain has trouble accumulating too much right around 32 --- but once you dip below 30, it's a different story. South Central PA through Lehigh Valley will be decimated --- but down in Chesco, Delco and PHL --- serious issues cannot be ruled out, specifically the more 'rural' you are (as you so eloquently put!). Yes when I left my house for work from Brookhaven it was 15 also that was at 7:25am and yes the airport was 24 so I don't know what's the major issues will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 48hr gfs abe surface below 32f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 and for us philly folks: What a mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 for us Lehigh Valley Folk: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 for us Lehigh Valley Folk: In my opinion, sleet/freezing rain mix is the worst for road conditions if they are not treated properly. It is like an icy cement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looking at national radar, precip is still way back in the midwest. Not sure this is going to start until sunup tomorrow? Or is that area supposed to expand quickly during the day? Local news was saying snow here by 9PM but doesn't seem like it will make it in that quickly to my eyes. The warm air advection is expected to ramp up and start generating snow before the system is anywhere near us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Does anyone mind posting a sounding for NXX (willow grove)? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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