Rib Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Post discussion about the Feb 1-2 storm and it's possible effects on the PHL CWA here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 k... so we got the NAM showing some pretty good ice/sleet/rain vs the GFS which just a lot of rain im smelling a good 'ol fashion model battle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Okay. Wow. Did anyone see the shift from NAM from 12z to 18z? Maybe the seasonal trend of it just wanting to snow isn't going to stop. That 14"+ line shifted dramatically south. 12z 18z Just an amazing jump south. Maybe models finally realizing the strength of that PV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 if there was going to be any kind of south trend or if these latest off runs are just normal wackiness then shouldn't tonight's runs show the way as they will have the full compliment of data from the storm being on the west coast now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 if there was going to be any kind of south trend or if these latest off runs are just normal wackiness then shouldn't tonight's runs show the way as they will have the full compliment of data from the storm being on the west coast now? Yep, tonight will be telling. Hopefully we can get another huge cold push south by the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 There's an amzing drop-off between PNE and PHL on the 18z GFS. Looking at only the 850mb temp and 2m temp... at PHL: 0.13 falls as SN, 0.10 falls as ZR, with 0.19 falling right on the cusp between ZR and RN (verbatim 2m temps are 29-33 during that 3-hour period, although I'm counting this towards RN since WAA scenarios usually feature an earlier-than-expected warmup.) meanwhile, at PNE: 0.15-0.18 falls as SN, 0.74-0.77 falls as ZR (although 0.40 of that is on the same ZR/RN borderline wrt to 2m temps, the max is 32F so I counted it in the ZR column). I'm surprised ~20 miles can make such a difference. Don't even get me started on ABE. Crippling ice storm there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
al79philly Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 There's an amzing drop-off between PNE and PHL on the 18z GFS. Looking at only the 850mb temp and 2m temp... at PHL: 0.13 falls as SN, 0.10 falls as ZR, with 0.19 falling right on the cusp between ZR and RN (verbatim 2m temps are 29-33 during that 3-hour period, although I'm counting this towards RN since WAA scenarios usually feature an earlier-than-expected warmup.) meanwhile, at PNE: 0.15-0.18 falls as SN, 0.74-0.77 falls as ZR (although 0.40 of that is on the same ZR/RN borderline wrt to 2m temps, the max is 32F so I counted it in the ZR column). I'm surprised ~20 miles can make such a difference. Don't even get me started on ABE. Crippling ice storm there. Do you know how much ZR we got in the first week of Jan 94? Just trying to put .75 in into context? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Do you know how much ZR we got in the first week of Jan 94? Just trying to put .75 in into context? Speaking of 1994, check out Ray's winter archive site, huge differences between PNE, TTN, NXX and PHL during the 2 early JAN ice storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 is there any credence to the theory that the latitude where a wave enters on the west coast is (9 times out of 10) the same latitude where it exits on the east coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Who's this Quinn lady on Fox 29? Calling for no precip Tuesday morning, but will start later Tuesday night and saying that the area has "dodged a bullet" as if her forecast has verified and the event is over. Even calling for temperatures in the 50s for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 is there any credence to the theory that the latitude where a wave enters on the west coast is (9 times out of 10) the same latitude where it exits on the east coast? I cant say that i have ever heard this theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 is there any credence to the theory that the latitude where a wave enters on the west coast is (9 times out of 10) the same latitude where it exits on the east coast? It is a general rule of thumb. I wouldn't say it is as exact as that guy drew on his map though. That's more of a NYC wishcast at this point. 9 times out of 10 the models aren't THAT far off 2 days out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Who's this Quinn lady on Fox 29? Calling for no precip Tuesday morning, but will start later Tuesday night and saying that the area has "dodged a bullet" as if her forecast has verified and the event is over. Even calling for temperatures in the 50s for next week. Hey billabong sounds like she's smoking your bong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 is there any credence to the theory that the latitude where a wave enters on the west coast is (9 times out of 10) the same latitude where it exits on the east coast? JB 101 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 if there was going to be any kind of south trend or if these latest off runs are just normal wackiness then shouldn't tonight's runs show the way as they will have the full compliment of data from the storm being on the west coast now? that works in a zonal pattern. This pattern is anything but zonal. If you look at the h5 hgts it screams of a cutter with the northern stream going neg tilt over texas/ark area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Who's this Quinn lady on Fox 29? Calling for no precip Tuesday morning, but will start later Tuesday night and saying that the area has "dodged a bullet" as if her forecast has verified and the event is over. Even calling for temperatures in the 50s for next week. shes going off the euro. The euros 2m temp gets us to about 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Who's this Quinn lady on Fox 29? Calling for no precip Tuesday morning, but will start later Tuesday night and saying that the area has "dodged a bullet" as if her forecast has verified and the event is over. Even calling for temperatures in the 50s for next week. Krista Quinn, she isnt the best at all, i dont know why she was even hired over at Fox 29. She used to be on CWPhilly Wakeup News which was only a partial news and more traffic and weather with Traffic being the main-thing. She didnt do much forecasting on there just read off what was on CBS3 KYW, which everything was used from KYW 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Who's this Quinn lady on Fox 29? Calling for no precip Tuesday morning, but will start later Tuesday night and saying that the area has "dodged a bullet" as if her forecast has verified and the event is over. Even calling for temperatures in the 50s for next week. Christa Quinn is a fill in/freelancer...she was on CW when they had news a number of years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 State college CWA has issued WSWatches. Creeping east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Mt Holly is kicking out the Watches soon.... .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WATCH ISSUANCE SHORTLUY AFTER 8 PM. THE FORECAST GRIDS WONT CHANGE AS THEY LOOK TO BE A GOOD START TO THE FUTURE REALITY. ITS A MATTER OF PUTTING MORE VISIBILITY ON WHAT APPEARS AHEAD. STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISPARITY ON TEMPS... HOWEVER... DESPITE THE WARM 12Z GGEM OP RUN...THE NAEFS WAS AS COLD AS IT WAS FCSTG YDY FOR 00Z WED. THAT PLUS THE MUCH COLDER 18Z NCEP MODEL RUNS AND THE COLD UKMET SUGGEST WE NEED TO A WATCH GOING FOR A LEAD BURST OF 1-4 INCHES OF SNOW TUESDAY MORNING.... COULD TURN OUT THE HEAVIEST IN NEAR ILG?! 12ZECMWF RAISED THAT ISSUE. THEN A BREAK IN THE MID AFTN TO MID EVENING TIME FRAME WHEN ONLY SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SLEET COULD BE OCCURRING IN PLACES S OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. THEN WE GO INTO THE HEAVIER QPF EVENT WED MORNING. DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR ARRIVES MONDAY AND THEN WHERE THE 32F IS AT 21Z TUESDAY WILL ASSIST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING SLEET AND OR ICE STORM IN THE NJT-I95 REGION NWWD. THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY SERIOUS EVENT FOR THE MID ATLC. HAVING MORE SLEET WOULD HELP AND THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT WE COULD SEE AN INCH OF SLEET IN NE PA AND NW NJ BEFORE FREEZING RAIN. ANY RAIN UP THERE LOOKS BRIEF IF AT ALL... PARTLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH THE COLD AIR SAGS BEHIND THE MIDDAY TUESDAY WARM FRONTAL WAVE THAT IS ASSTD WITH THE TUE MORNING SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 State college CWA has issued WSWatches. Creeping east. I think Mount Holly will issue a winter storm watch for your area, as well as the rest of NE PA and probably Sussex and Warren counties in NJ with tomorrow's early morning package. WWA for the rest of the CWA except for Delaware and SE NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I think Mount Holly will issue a winter storm watch for your area, as well as the rest of NE PA and probably Sussex and Warren counties in NJ with tomorrow's early morning package. WWA for the rest of the CWA except for Delaware and SE NJ. honestly, if tonights nam is the same and gfs comes in colder i think everyone from the river west and east gets one. If they dont, i think you will see philly and delco south in wwa and everyone else in watches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 To see the Mount Holly folks use the phrase "catastrophic" ice storm is quite alarming. NWS usually isn't one to sensationalize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 To see the Mount Holly folks use the phrase "catastrophic" ice storm is quite alarming. NWS usually isn't one to sensationalize. Agreed. As much as I love snow, I truly fear freezing rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 honestly, if tonights nam is the same and gfs comes in colder i think everyone from the river west and east gets one. If they dont, i think you will see philly and delco south in wwa and everyone else in watches. Did you see their AFD with heaviest near ILG? That's awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Agreed. As much as I love snow, I truly fear freezing rain.. Deep down I feel a little excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Did you see their AFD with heaviest near ILG? That's awesome! Thats nearest us Robb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Agreed. As much as I love snow, I truly fear freezing rain.. I LOVE freezing rain! The thought that when you drive, you have absolutely NO traction, it actually excites me. Freezing rain is fine, just don't go out and drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Thats nearest us Robb. And closest to my work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I LOVE freezing rain! The thought that when you drive, you have absolutely NO traction, it actually excites me. Freezing rain is fine, just don't go out and drive. I just remember losing power for maybe 2 days back in 1994, and it was brutally cold outside and I had no heat. Still, though, from a meteorological perspective, it is cool to experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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