Hailstorm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The last Ice storm warning for NYC was on February 14.2007. I remember that situation too. Upton forecast between 0.5-0.75" of ice accretion for all the 5 boroughs; however, the 925 MB temps were colder than guidance indicated and we had a sleet storm instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm pretty sure that January 7-8, 1994 is generally regarded as the worst ice storm on record for this area (at least for central NJ). I'm guessing that's what you're referring to. Yup, that was the most amazing scene I have ever seen with so much ice that it literally looked like we were living inside a world made of crystal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I remember that situation too. Upton forecast between 0.5-0.75" of ice accretion for all the 5 boroughs; however, the 925 MB temps were colder than guidance indicated and we had a sleet storm instead. Yeah, it was snow to sleet to freezing rain at the tail and and doesnt hold a candle to Jan 1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yup, that was the most amazing scene I have ever seen with so much ice that it literally looked like we were living inside a world made of crystal. Oh man, I'd like to see some pics of that one. A truly crippling ice storm is one weather phenomena that I haven't really yet experienced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 By memory it sure seems pretty rare in the metro area. And in places like Manhattan where most of the paved surfaces are warm and/or treated, it has to be very cold for serious accretion. Like you suggested it's much more common in the NW burbs. I know the hudson highlands got some pretty good icing earlier this year. I remember 5 or 6 good ice storms here on Long Island, mostly in the 90s though. Theyre not very common but I wouldnt say theyre extremely rare either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Is this true? I've always thought freezing rain was a property of the surface temperature only. How much of the rain freezes on contact always seems to be a function of the intensity and the temperature. At 10F almost all of it freezes on everything whereas at 32F it freezes only on some surfaces and there's a lot of wet runoff. But freezing rain feels the same as rain when you reach out to feel it with your palm. Because it is rain. True, but from my own experience, freezing rain tends to hit the colder surfaces with a crackling-type (almost like the sound of sleet hitting the pavement but not quite) sound versus non-freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yup, that was the most amazing scene I have ever seen with so much ice that it literally looked like we were living inside a world made of crystal. Yeah, it was snow to sleet to freezing rain at the tail and and doesnt hold a candle to Jan 1994. Someone ice skated down my street. To melt the ice on my sidewalk, I took a pail of boiling water and threw it on the sidewalk. I remember it as the day Joe Montana beat Bill Cowher and the Steelers in the playoffs which was his next to last playoff victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Oh man, I'd like to see some pics of that one. A truly crippling ice storm is one weather phenomena that I haven't really yet experienced. I'll have to dig some up-- that was in the era before digital. Picture 1.5 to 2.0 inches of ice on every surface-- including railings, fences, tree branches, basically any exposed surface. And it was on top of a few inches of snow and sleet that were there from before so you had cars driving on an off white colored surface without making any tracks! Surreal. And you can forget trying to put a shovel to it-- one really funny scene (well painful more than funny) I saw my neighbor try to stick his shovel into it and the thing bounced back up and the handle hit him in the head lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Just finished one of the most grueling forecasts ever for the blog. I don't think I have ever seen such an absolute grab bag of potential hazards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 True, but from my own experience, freezing rain tends to hit the colder surfaces with a crackling-type (almost like the sound of sleet hitting the pavement but not quite) sound versus non-freezing rain. Agreed, it doesnt actually sound or even feel like rain. More like little cold needles piercing your skin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Also, check out what's going on in the Plains and Central US. This kind of stuff is absolutely incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Just finished one of the most grueling forecasts ever for the blog. I don't think I have ever seen such an absolute grab bag of potential hazards. Any chances a severe thunderstorm gets tossed into the mix, John? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 You're absolutely correct. Speaking of which, when was the last legit freezing rain event in this area? Wasn't there on in Dec '08 or '09? I can't really remember too well..but I know it wasn't too long ago. We just had a pretty decent freezing rain event a couple of weeks ago (January 18). The glaze was pretty impressive (at least here in New Brunswick). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Also, check out what's going on in the Plains and Central US. This kind of stuff is absolutely incredible. that is a mother of god map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 that is a mother of god map. Yeah, seriously...insane atmospheric dynamics at play. It's going to be awesome to watch from the sidelines without the stress of being involved, for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Also, check out what's going on in the Plains and Central US. This kind of stuff is absolutely incredible. The winds will be absolutely howling with that snow. 1050+mb high against a 992 low? Yikes. I'm surprised there aren't more blizzard watches out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The winds will be absolutely howling with that snow. 1050+mb high against a 992 low? Yikes. I'm surprised there aren't more blizzard watches out there. They missed that aspect of the 12/24 storm out there last year, not realizing how strong the winds would get, OKC had forecasts of winds only 20-30kts and they wound of 45-55kts....I think the WSWs may get upgraded eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 They missed that aspect of the 12/24 storm out there last year, not realizing how strong the winds would get, OKC had forecasts of winds only 20-30kts and they wound of 45-55kts....I think the WSWs may get upgraded eventually. With a blizzard going on in Chicago, do you see any similarities to 1967? Of course, we had a pretty great winter that year also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Also, check out what's going on in the Plains and Central US. This kind of stuff is absolutely incredible. I'm not sure if I have ever seen an area of purple QPF on an ensemble mean before; but that is a testimony to a huge signal of a ton of wintry precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParsippanyWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Just finished one of the most grueling forecasts ever for the blog. I don't think I have ever seen such an absolute grab bag of potential hazards. Not saying it's going to happen (yet), but can you imagine an Ice storm laying down .5 - .75" of ice on top of the snow base we already have and then temps crashing immediately after the storm departs? Oh man, that's a recipe for disaster. Power outages gallore. I'm getting more nervous for my area here in NW NJ. Mt. Holly already has us here with a Winter Storm Watch for 2-6" of snow and .5-.75" of ice (Glaze) on top possible. Confidence leans towards the lower numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Compared to 00z NAM, 06z NAM came in more juicier with WAA snows for NYC and boosted QPF up to 0.25-0.50" from 0.10-0.25". Also, surface is a good bit colder through 39 hours. It is interesting to note that this run shifts the heaviest QPF in the Midwest more south again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Compared to 00z NAM, 06z NAM came in more juicier with WAA snows for NYC and boosted QPF up to 0.25-0.50" from 0.10-0.25". I'm fairly confident the WAA snows are going to be more impressive than expected...if you look at the thermal fields and winds at 850mb at 24 hours the gradient is rather impressive and you've got due southerly winds at 30kts perpendicular to the thermal orientation...I'd expect snow may begin as early as around 04Z later this evening...another thing to note for those discussing the low levels...the weak low which develops off the coast during the initial WAA phase could potentially reinforce NE surface flow...thats clearly visible at 42-48 hours on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Winter Storm Watches out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm fairly confident the WAA snows are going to be more impressive than expected...if you look at the thermal fields and winds at 850mb at 24 hours the gradient is rather impressive and you've got due southerly winds at 30kts perpendicular to the thermal orientation...I'd expect snow may begin as early as around 04Z later this evening...another thing to note for those discussing the low levels...the weak low which develops off the coast during the initial WAA phase could potentially reinforce NE surface flow...thats clearly visible at 42-48 hours on the NAM. Yeah, the main SLP in the Midwest slows down somewhat from last run which limits the surface from warming as much when the coastal SLP takes over. NYC only goes barely above freezing for 3 hours on this run between 60-63. As such, NYC receives close to 0.4-0.5" of ice accrual before the changeover to rain, then another 0.1-0.25" at the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 With the 700 mb and 850 mb flow backing to SW/SSW, some of the moisture associated with the system in AL/GA/SC is going to get entrained into the initial WAA precip. burst as well. The NAM is underestimating the amount of rainfall over AL/GA/SC and especially its northeastward extent. I'm fairly confident the WAA snows are going to be more impressive than expected...if you look at the thermal fields and winds at 850mb at 24 hours the gradient is rather impressive and you've got due southerly winds at 30kts perpendicular to the thermal orientation...I'd expect snow may begin as early as around 04Z later this evening...another thing to note for those discussing the low levels...the weak low which develops off the coast during the initial WAA phase could potentially reinforce NE surface flow...thats clearly visible at 42-48 hours on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 For the immediate NYC metro: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 357 AM EST MON JAN 31 2011 ...A LARGE WINTER STORM IS FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... NJZ006-106-108-NYZ072-074-075-078>081-176>179-312200- /O.CON.KOKX.WS.A.0005.110201T1100Z-110203T0000Z/ HUDSON-EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN UNION-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)- RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 357 AM EST MON JAN 31 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND. * HAZARDS...SNOW AND SLEET TUESDAY. SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN WEDNESDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION...AND A QUARTER TO PERHAPS A HALF INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. * TIMING...SNOW BEGINS AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET CONTINUES MUCH OF TUESDAY. A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN THE WINTRY MIX CHANGES TO PLAIN RAIN SOMETIME WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS TRAVEL. ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD KNOCK DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Meanwhile, Upton is forecasting 5-9" of snow for areas just to the NW of NYC with 8-12" across southern Connecticut, the lower Hudson Valley and northeast New Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 You gotta love that the Bronx has its own watch... detached from every other county in Upton's CWA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 You gotta love that the Bronx has its own watch... detached from every other county in Upton's CWA... So they have Manhattan for 2-5" and 5-9" for the Bronx. Well, the Bronx is on the mainland and Manhattan and the other boros arent Manhattan and Staten Island are on their own islands and Brooklyn and Queens are part of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 So they have Manhattan for 2-5" and 5-9" for the Bronx. Well, the Bronx is on the mainland and Manhattan and the other boros arent Manhattan and Staten Island are on their own islands and Brooklyn and Queens are part of Long Island. except they're going for 2-5 in the Bronx as well... Personally that sounds a little odd... U would want some sort of transition zone... You ain't going to get 5 inches in the northern bronx and 9 in yonkers.... I would have thought u'd going 2-5 manhattan, 3-6 bronx... 4-7 southern westchester, 5-9 north of there... but what do i know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 So they have Manhattan for 2-5" and 5-9" for the Bronx. Well, the Bronx is on the mainland and Manhattan and the other boros arent Manhattan and Staten Island are on their own islands and Brooklyn and Queens are part of Long Island. It says 2-5" for The Bronx too: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 357 AM EST MON JAN 31 2011 ...A LARGE WINTER STORM IS FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... NYZ073-312200- /O.EXA.KOKX.WS.A.0005.110201T1100Z-110203T0000Z/ BRONX- 357 AM EST MON JAN 31 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...THE BRONX. * HAZARDS...SNOW AND SLEET TUESDAY. SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN WEDNESDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION...AND A QUARTER TO PERHAPS A HALF INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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