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NYC CWA Feb 1-2 Storm Discussion


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Even Belmar on the coast is sub 32 at the surface through Wednesday morning. That's some pretty strong CAD to keep the ZR holding right to the beaches.

It's very rare to get a major ZR event down to here. I think the last one was 2/14/07, which was huge. From what I heard, a lot of tree branches came down and streets were atrocious.

I can't even imagine what the foot plus of already heavy wet snow will weigh if we get several more inches of sleet/snow then ZR. Ugghh

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Sundog, basically a sleet sounding has a warm layer that is not as deep as the one depicted in the sounding (above freezing temps from 800mb all the way down to 900mb, a sufficient depth for complete melting of snow crystals into rain drops). Usually the warm tongue in sleet soundings are thinner, and the snow only partially melts. The surface layer also is not cold enough for refreezing into ice pellets.

Here's a good site on determing winter precip via skew-ts:

http://www.crh.noaa....n=winter-precip

Nice link thanks dude.

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Here in Orange County its still quite close to an all snow event..

total qpf here in MGJ is 1.4"

with only the 800mb layer @ hr 66 0.5*

Every other layer through 84 is below 0..

Heavy dendrites would slice through that like a Cutco knife. That's all snow.

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Do not underestimate the potential for this to be a major ice storm and extremely dangerous. I'm not saying that it's definite, but the potential for a very dangerous situation does exist for much of our area. Then again, if that coastal pops further south and sooner, we could still be looking at more snow. And then again, if it doesn't pop, we could be looking at more rain. In other words, ALL options are still open....this one will go down to the wire!

WX/PT

Good to hear from our local long island met. So PT, at what point do you think we will have a handle on things or do you see this as a potential nowcasting event and less reliance on the models? What does your meterological gut tell you here? Is the trend to colder done or does it resume tomorrow?

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How deep of a frozen layer below the warn nose do we typically need to get sleet as opposed to freezing rain? I figure the colder the air the shallower the cold surface layer can be but at some point it won't give it enough time to freeze. So what would signify a typical sleet sounding as opposed to a freezing rain sounding? Looking at the sounding isotherm posted I would have guessed that was sleet but he mentioned freezing rain.

This may help. http://www.theweatherprediction.com/winterwx/thicknesscriteria/

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Good to hear from our local long island met. So PT, at what point do you think we will have a handle on things or do you see this as a potential nowcasting event and less reliance on the models? What does your meterological gut tell you here? Is the trend to colder done or does it resume tomorrow?

We don't know the answer to this yet. I hope that by the 12Z model runs tomorrow, it will be much clearer exactly where and how far we're going.

WX/PT

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Hey everyone! I'm a new member and am trying to get acclimated to AmericanWx, so my appologies if Ipost an imby post.

I am getting more concerned about the potential of a major ice storm for the area. Is this a set up with a primary over the OV and a weaker wave of lp trying to develop around the DelMarVA?

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Considering the borderline hours are still 60+ hours out I wouldn't hold any one solution too near and dear to your hearts. Changes, either positive or negative, can easily occur within a time frame that large, especially this year.

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Considering the borderline hours are still 60+ hours out I wouldn't hold any one solution too near and dear to your hearts. Changes, either positive or negative, can easily occur within a time frame that large, especially this year.

Totally Agree, most of the models this winter have not handled storms well until within 24 hours, so I would take ANY modle with a grain of salt and just watch what the modles do over the next 24 hours

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The fact that the precipitation ends just as temperatures begin to support snow? It's both frustrating and ironic, unless you have a different definition of ironic. But this is off topic; PM me.

Webster's has a few definitions, but my guess is that the definition that's causing you to receive arguments is this one: 'incongruity between the actual result of a sequence of events and the normal or expected result.' My guess is that the folks telling you it isn't irony would say that the actual result of the sequence of events is what's expected in this case.

What is ironic that a discussion regarding the potential for harsh winter weather in a forum whose main purpose is to provide the environment for such discussions, on the eve of just such an event, would become dominated by a discussion of the word irony, rather than by a discussion of said potential winter event.

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Webster's has a few definitions, but my guess is that the definition that's causing you to receive arguments is this one: 'incongruity between the actual result of a sequence of events and the normal or expected result.' My guess is that the folks telling you it isn't irony would say that the actual result of the sequence of events is what's expected in this case.

What is ironic that a discussion regarding the potential for harsh winter weather in a forum whose main purpose is to provide the environment for such discussions, on the eve of just such an event, would become dominated by a discussion of the word irony, rather than by a discussion of said potential winter event.

agreed!

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This is one interesting note I can pass on which I discovered 2 years ago...in 34 cases where OKC saw 4 inches or more of snow, Chicago saw 4 inches or more within 48 hours in 27 of those cases....NYC saw 4 inches or more within 96 hours in only 3.

you could visualize where that would be a reasonable result... since i would assume 4" events in OKC are usually the result of a system that's already amped up and turning northeast.

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Interesting. Do you have any data correlating 4"+ in NYC given 12"+ in ORD? (leaving OKC out of it). As a kid growing up in NYC I observed that if ORD got a major accumulation, NYC got rain. Any stats on that?

Generally a SW flow event which originates more in the northern stream and is suppressed by a strong PV or high in the NE US would cause both ORD and NYC to see big snows but those are rare....1/26/94 and 2/8/94 are probably two examples I can think of and those were maybe 4-8 inch events in both cities, not 12+.

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