jm1220 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Even Belmar on the coast is sub 32 at the surface through Wednesday morning. That's some pretty strong CAD to keep the ZR holding right to the beaches. It's very rare to get a major ZR event down to here. I think the last one was 2/14/07, which was huge. From what I heard, a lot of tree branches came down and streets were atrocious. I can't even imagine what the foot plus of already heavy wet snow will weigh if we get several more inches of sleet/snow then ZR. Ugghh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 00Z RGEM almost ten millibars stronger than 00Z NAM with central plains lour at hour 48, in fact, brings mixing line to southern Chicago suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Sundog, basically a sleet sounding has a warm layer that is not as deep as the one depicted in the sounding (above freezing temps from 800mb all the way down to 900mb, a sufficient depth for complete melting of snow crystals into rain drops). Usually the warm tongue in sleet soundings are thinner, and the snow only partially melts. The surface layer also is not cold enough for refreezing into ice pellets. Here's a good site on determing winter precip via skew-ts: http://www.crh.noaa....n=winter-precip Nice link thanks dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Here in Orange County its still quite close to an all snow event.. total qpf here in MGJ is 1.4" with only the 800mb layer @ hr 66 0.5* Every other layer through 84 is below 0.. Heavy dendrites would slice through that like a Cutco knife. That's all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 here is the output for KBDR, can't get any other stations up right now. A little bit of everything, but much less snowy than the fantasy 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 KMMU peaks at 31.8 @ hr. 66 on the NAM KABE peaks at 30.0 @ hr. 66 on the NAM KSMQ peaks at 32.4 @ hr. 66 on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lisnow66 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Do not underestimate the potential for this to be a major ice storm and extremely dangerous. I'm not saying that it's definite, but the potential for a very dangerous situation does exist for much of our area. Then again, if that coastal pops further south and sooner, we could still be looking at more snow. And then again, if it doesn't pop, we could be looking at more rain. In other words, ALL options are still open....this one will go down to the wire! WX/PT Good to hear from our local long island met. So PT, at what point do you think we will have a handle on things or do you see this as a potential nowcasting event and less reliance on the models? What does your meterological gut tell you here? Is the trend to colder done or does it resume tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 How deep of a frozen layer below the warn nose do we typically need to get sleet as opposed to freezing rain? I figure the colder the air the shallower the cold surface layer can be but at some point it won't give it enough time to freeze. So what would signify a typical sleet sounding as opposed to a freezing rain sounding? Looking at the sounding isotherm posted I would have guessed that was sleet but he mentioned freezing rain. This may help. http://www.theweatherprediction.com/winterwx/thicknesscriteria/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Good to hear from our local long island met. So PT, at what point do you think we will have a handle on things or do you see this as a potential nowcasting event and less reliance on the models? What does your meterological gut tell you here? Is the trend to colder done or does it resume tomorrow? We don't know the answer to this yet. I hope that by the 12Z model runs tomorrow, it will be much clearer exactly where and how far we're going. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 00z GFS coming in slightly warmer than 18z out 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 so far through hr 42 on the gfs the city is close to .20 of snow on the front running preciep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 nam brings some appreciable icing to eastern north shore of long island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 hr 48 850's just north of the city...surface south through cnj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hey everyone! I'm a new member and am trying to get acclimated to AmericanWx, so my appologies if Ipost an imby post. I am getting more concerned about the potential of a major ice storm for the area. Is this a set up with a primary over the OV and a weaker wave of lp trying to develop around the DelMarVA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 hr 57 .25+ of preciep...surface temps still below 32 for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 What a storm for Missouri! If I knew someone down there I'd have a ticket already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 hr 66 the city goes to rain...surface and 850's up in ny state....develops secondary over ny/nj......temps crash after preciep ends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 hr 66 the city goes to rain...surface and 850's up in ny state....develops secondary over ny/nj......temps crash after preciep ends The irony of living on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 So looks like GFS gets a monster storm going in midwest, takes a run at the PV then gets sheared out to the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The irony of living on the east coast. that isn't irony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Considering the borderline hours are still 60+ hours out I wouldn't hold any one solution too near and dear to your hearts. Changes, either positive or negative, can easily occur within a time frame that large, especially this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Considering the borderline hours are still 60+ hours out I wouldn't hold any one solution too near and dear to your hearts. Changes, either positive or negative, can easily occur within a time frame that large, especially this year. Totally Agree, most of the models this winter have not handled storms well until within 24 hours, so I would take ANY modle with a grain of salt and just watch what the modles do over the next 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 For those that like snow, yes, it's ironic. no, it isn't ironic for anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This is one interesting note I can pass on which I discovered 2 years ago...in 34 cases where OKC saw 4 inches or more of snow, Chicago saw 4 inches or more within 48 hours in 27 of those cases....NYC saw 4 inches or more within 96 hours in only 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I agree....more patience will be needed on our part. Models still not in very good agreement in regards to our area. Hopefully sometime tommorrow we'll have a better idea. I'm curious to what the euro will show however, I might just stay up to check it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The fact that the precipitation ends just as temperatures begin to support snow? It's both frustrating and ironic, unless you have a different definition of ironic. But this is off topic; PM me. Webster's has a few definitions, but my guess is that the definition that's causing you to receive arguments is this one: 'incongruity between the actual result of a sequence of events and the normal or expected result.' My guess is that the folks telling you it isn't irony would say that the actual result of the sequence of events is what's expected in this case. What is ironic that a discussion regarding the potential for harsh winter weather in a forum whose main purpose is to provide the environment for such discussions, on the eve of just such an event, would become dominated by a discussion of the word irony, rather than by a discussion of said potential winter event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Webster's has a few definitions, but my guess is that the definition that's causing you to receive arguments is this one: 'incongruity between the actual result of a sequence of events and the normal or expected result.' My guess is that the folks telling you it isn't irony would say that the actual result of the sequence of events is what's expected in this case. What is ironic that a discussion regarding the potential for harsh winter weather in a forum whose main purpose is to provide the environment for such discussions, on the eve of just such an event, would become dominated by a discussion of the word irony, rather than by a discussion of said potential winter event. agreed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This is one interesting note I can pass on which I discovered 2 years ago...in 34 cases where OKC saw 4 inches or more of snow, Chicago saw 4 inches or more within 48 hours in 27 of those cases....NYC saw 4 inches or more within 96 hours in only 3. you could visualize where that would be a reasonable result... since i would assume 4" events in OKC are usually the result of a system that's already amped up and turning northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Interesting. Do you have any data correlating 4"+ in NYC given 12"+ in ORD? (leaving OKC out of it). As a kid growing up in NYC I observed that if ORD got a major accumulation, NYC got rain. Any stats on that? Generally a SW flow event which originates more in the northern stream and is suppressed by a strong PV or high in the NE US would cause both ORD and NYC to see big snows but those are rare....1/26/94 and 2/8/94 are probably two examples I can think of and those were maybe 4-8 inch events in both cities, not 12+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The irony of living on the east coast. it's the track of the low that's the issue... if we lived in Wombat Falls, Kentucky, and the low passes to our NW, the same thing would happen, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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