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NYC CWA Feb 1-2 Storm Discussion


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If temperatures are marginal in the NYC area, there won't be much ice.. If the temps are in the mid 20's at the surface we have a problem.. You really need temps lower than 28/29 at the surface to get freezing rain.. Temps hovering around 31/32 just don't do it..

They did it last time. and yes they do. It just depends on the antecedent conditions. In this case, the ground is plenty cold.

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This likely won't be cold enough at the surface during the heaviest precip to cause any problems in the city of new york itself. N and W is going to be icy.

Funny how boston will see more snow from this even than any of the nor'easters this year. They really cash in from the SWFE where we can do better sometimes with the big coastals.

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This likely won't be cold enough at the surface during the heaviest precip to cause any problems in the city of new york itself. N and W is going to be icy.

Funny how boston will see more snow from this even than any of the nor'easters this year. They really cash in from the SWFE where we can do better sometimes with the big coastals.

After this storm, we should get revenge. What do you say to a major coastal that treks up the coast on a negatively tilted trough and cuts through around central Connecticut? :devilsmiley:

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They did it last time. and yes they do. It just depends on the antecedent conditions. In this case, the ground is plenty cold.

Do not underestimate the potential for this to be a major ice storm and extremely dangerous. I'm not saying that it's definite, but the potential for a very dangerous situation does exist for much of our area. Then again, if that coastal pops further south and sooner, we could still be looking at more snow. And then again, if it doesn't pop, we could be looking at more rain. In other words, ALL options are still open....this one will go down to the wire!

WX/PT

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0z nam compared to 12z nam still trended colder. i don't think this is still done trending colder.

I still think that this is interesting.....It seems that the HP to the north is not quite as strong this run therefore slightly warmer temps...but at the same time the coastal transfer starts a little earlier...

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everyone along and north of I-84 stays below freezing per 00z NAM. heaviest precip is even further than that line, towards the NW. "only" around an inch for SW CT and that includes the precip from Tue. almost seems underdone, but given the nam's bias, maybe not...

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NAM did trend a little north this run, but any shift to the south or north in the track will make hugh differences in the forecast from NYC to BOS. It is still 60 hours out and a lot can change. One way the coast can see more snow is that the frish wave becomes stronger and pull in some CAA behind as suggested by the 18Z NAM run.

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JGNYK03, what does it look like in the greater waterbury area tues to wed night, in terms of snow and ice accums?

no one knows yet for sure probably not until tuesday morning for the main event... for the first part tuesday a batch of snow or sleet light to moderate accumulations.. then another batch of heavier snow sleet or freezing rain tuesday night through wednesday.. several inches of snow and or sleet followed by possibly a major icing event

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Guest Patrick

Always good to read your thoughts, PT. This could very well be one of those situations where LI/SI and the eastern half of the boroughs are Zr or plain rain, and my neighborhood is ZR/IP. Watched that scenario play out plenty of times in the 80s and 90s. Of course, we could all end up torching, and the snowpack-induced cold air is overblown on the modeling. If that unlikely result occurs, it would be the first time I saw a steaming snowpack since 1996.

slightly OT... I am surprised you don't participate in TQ's snowfall forecast contests... Don Sutherland naturally places in the top 2 or 3 most of the time...I jumped from last place to first for the last storm, mostly due to dumb luck... but I would think you would probably clean up!

Do not underestimate the potential for this to be a major ice storm and extremely dangerous. I'm not saying that it's definite, but the potential for a very dangerous situation does exist for much of our area. Then again, if that coastal pops further south and sooner, we could still be looking at more snow. And then again, if it doesn't pop, we could be looking at more rain. In other words, ALL options are still open....this one will go down to the wire!

WX/PT

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How deep of a frozen layer below the warn nose do we typically need to get sleet as opposed to freezing rain? I figure the colder the air the shallower the cold surface layer can be but at some point it won't give it enough time to freeze. So what would signify a typical sleet sounding as opposed to a freezing rain sounding? Looking at the sounding isotherm posted I would have guessed that was sleet but he mentioned freezing rain.

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Guest Patrick

Thanks, Don.

Not sure where you got your crystal ball from, but man, your forecast accuracy for this season (and last) is uncanny. I think you might have a connection to the weather gods =)

On another note.. Interesting from OKX AFD tonight:

"WITH THE GFS THE SLOWEST...AND THE 18Z NAM THE

FASTEST. OPTED FOR A NAM/ECMWF/SREF COMPROMISE FOR WEDNESDAY."

I wonder... if they continue to use the SREFs as part of the blend, the next step would be to further discount the wetter solutions.

Congratulations. Very good forecast on the recent storm.

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If temperatures are marginal in the NYC area, there won't be much ice.. If the temps are in the mid 20's at the surface we have a problem.. You really need temps lower than 28/29 at the surface to get freezing rain.. Temps hovering around 31/32 just don't do it..

31 does do it. At 32, melting = freezing. You definitely don't need mid 20s for significant ice accretion. The laws of physics in NYC are no different than anywhere else.

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How deep of a frozen layer below the warn nose do we typically need to get sleet as opposed to freezing rain? I figure the colder the air the shallower the cold surface layer can be but at some point it won't give it enough time to freeze. So what would signify a typical sleet sounding as opposed to a freezing rain sounding? Looking at the sounding isotherm posted I would have guessed that was sleet but he mentioned freezing rain.

Sundog, basically a sleet sounding has a warm layer that is not as deep as the one depicted in the sounding (above freezing temps from 800mb all the way down to 900mb, a sufficient depth for complete melting of snow crystals into rain drops). Usually the warm tongue in sleet soundings are thinner, and the snow only partially melts. The surface layer also is not cold enough for refreezing into ice pellets.

Here's a good site on determing winter precip via skew-ts:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=winter-precip

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