Analog96 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 If temperatures are marginal in the NYC area, there won't be much ice.. If the temps are in the mid 20's at the surface we have a problem.. You really need temps lower than 28/29 at the surface to get freezing rain.. Temps hovering around 31/32 just don't do it.. They did it last time. and yes they do. It just depends on the antecedent conditions. In this case, the ground is plenty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Talgrass Prairie towards Chi-town is CRUSHED. wow! lake enhanced deform band lol. (if there is such a thing) ok back on topic for our area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I can see southern Jersey making a run for the upper 50's during the day Wednesday. Maybe if that WWD station screws up again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This likely won't be cold enough at the surface during the heaviest precip to cause any problems in the city of new york itself. N and W is going to be icy. Funny how boston will see more snow from this even than any of the nor'easters this year. They really cash in from the SWFE where we can do better sometimes with the big coastals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 JGNYK03, what does it look like in the greater waterbury area tues to wed night, in terms of snow and ice accums? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 0z nam compared to 12z nam still trended colder. i don't think this is still done trending colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 24+ inch calls for chicago maybe in trouble according to the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 24+ inch calls for chicago maybe in trouble according to the nam lol just looking at that QPF FORECAST on NAM from 12z cut in half been trending less and less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This likely won't be cold enough at the surface during the heaviest precip to cause any problems in the city of new york itself. N and W is going to be icy. Funny how boston will see more snow from this even than any of the nor'easters this year. They really cash in from the SWFE where we can do better sometimes with the big coastals. After this storm, we should get revenge. What do you say to a major coastal that treks up the coast on a negatively tilted trough and cuts through around central Connecticut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 24+ inch calls for chicago maybe in trouble according to the nam If the RGEM is right, they will be in fine shape, maybe not 24+, but still very heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 They did it last time. and yes they do. It just depends on the antecedent conditions. In this case, the ground is plenty cold. Do not underestimate the potential for this to be a major ice storm and extremely dangerous. I'm not saying that it's definite, but the potential for a very dangerous situation does exist for much of our area. Then again, if that coastal pops further south and sooner, we could still be looking at more snow. And then again, if it doesn't pop, we could be looking at more rain. In other words, ALL options are still open....this one will go down to the wire! WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 0z nam compared to 12z nam still trended colder. i don't think this is still done trending colder. I still think that this is interesting.....It seems that the HP to the north is not quite as strong this run therefore slightly warmer temps...but at the same time the coastal transfer starts a little earlier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 everyone along and north of I-84 stays below freezing per 00z NAM. heaviest precip is even further than that line, towards the NW. "only" around an inch for SW CT and that includes the precip from Tue. almost seems underdone, but given the nam's bias, maybe not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM did trend a little north this run, but any shift to the south or north in the track will make hugh differences in the forecast from NYC to BOS. It is still 60 hours out and a lot can change. One way the coast can see more snow is that the frish wave becomes stronger and pull in some CAA behind as suggested by the 18Z NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm basing tonight's NAM off the 12z NAM run rather than the off run. Based on 12z run, its a lot colder, especially at the surface. That's going to be the key here, not how cold it is aloft, but the surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looks like a major ice/sleet storm for points north of I-78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 JGNYK03, what does it look like in the greater waterbury area tues to wed night, in terms of snow and ice accums? no one knows yet for sure probably not until tuesday morning for the main event... for the first part tuesday a batch of snow or sleet light to moderate accumulations.. then another batch of heavier snow sleet or freezing rain tuesday night through wednesday.. several inches of snow and or sleet followed by possibly a major icing event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Big ZR signal on the 00z NAM, surface definitely trended cooler. 2m temps are actually well below freezing, probably upper 20s through Wednesday morning. Since precip basically shuts off by 18z Wednesday, most of this event looks to be ZR per the 00z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I can see southern Jersey making a run for the upper 50's during the day Wednesday. not happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Please stop with the imby requests check www.nws.noaa.gov for your local forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 24+ inch calls for chicago maybe in trouble according to the nam really? southside is like 1.50+. and they stay REALLY cold throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Always good to read your thoughts, PT. This could very well be one of those situations where LI/SI and the eastern half of the boroughs are Zr or plain rain, and my neighborhood is ZR/IP. Watched that scenario play out plenty of times in the 80s and 90s. Of course, we could all end up torching, and the snowpack-induced cold air is overblown on the modeling. If that unlikely result occurs, it would be the first time I saw a steaming snowpack since 1996. slightly OT... I am surprised you don't participate in TQ's snowfall forecast contests... Don Sutherland naturally places in the top 2 or 3 most of the time...I jumped from last place to first for the last storm, mostly due to dumb luck... but I would think you would probably clean up! Do not underestimate the potential for this to be a major ice storm and extremely dangerous. I'm not saying that it's definite, but the potential for a very dangerous situation does exist for much of our area. Then again, if that coastal pops further south and sooner, we could still be looking at more snow. And then again, if it doesn't pop, we could be looking at more rain. In other words, ALL options are still open....this one will go down to the wire! WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Even Belmar on the coast is sub 32 at the surface through Wednesday morning. That's some pretty strong CAD to keep the ZR holding right to the beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I jumped from last place to first for the last storm, mostly due to dumb luck... but I would think you would probably clean up! Congratulations. Very good forecast on the recent storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 How deep of a frozen layer below the warn nose do we typically need to get sleet as opposed to freezing rain? I figure the colder the air the shallower the cold surface layer can be but at some point it won't give it enough time to freeze. So what would signify a typical sleet sounding as opposed to a freezing rain sounding? Looking at the sounding isotherm posted I would have guessed that was sleet but he mentioned freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Here in Orange County its still quite close to an all snow event.. total qpf here in MGJ is 1.4" with only the 800mb layer @ hr 66 0.5* Every other layer through 84 is below 0.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Thanks, Don. Not sure where you got your crystal ball from, but man, your forecast accuracy for this season (and last) is uncanny. I think you might have a connection to the weather gods =) On another note.. Interesting from OKX AFD tonight: "WITH THE GFS THE SLOWEST...AND THE 18Z NAM THE FASTEST. OPTED FOR A NAM/ECMWF/SREF COMPROMISE FOR WEDNESDAY." I wonder... if they continue to use the SREFs as part of the blend, the next step would be to further discount the wetter solutions. Congratulations. Very good forecast on the recent storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 If temperatures are marginal in the NYC area, there won't be much ice.. If the temps are in the mid 20's at the surface we have a problem.. You really need temps lower than 28/29 at the surface to get freezing rain.. Temps hovering around 31/32 just don't do it.. 31 does do it. At 32, melting = freezing. You definitely don't need mid 20s for significant ice accretion. The laws of physics in NYC are no different than anywhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 According to twister data, my location doesn't even get above freezing at the surface until 15Z wed, based on 0z nam... PS - FWIW, init soundings have me above freezing but in reality I'm in the 20's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 How deep of a frozen layer below the warn nose do we typically need to get sleet as opposed to freezing rain? I figure the colder the air the shallower the cold surface layer can be but at some point it won't give it enough time to freeze. So what would signify a typical sleet sounding as opposed to a freezing rain sounding? Looking at the sounding isotherm posted I would have guessed that was sleet but he mentioned freezing rain. Sundog, basically a sleet sounding has a warm layer that is not as deep as the one depicted in the sounding (above freezing temps from 800mb all the way down to 900mb, a sufficient depth for complete melting of snow crystals into rain drops). Usually the warm tongue in sleet soundings are thinner, and the snow only partially melts. The surface layer also is not cold enough for refreezing into ice pellets. Here's a good site on determing winter precip via skew-ts: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=winter-precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.