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NYC CWA Feb 1-2 Storm Discussion


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You might have spoken too soon. I'm hearing more and more pinging just to your SW. Car tops and sidewalks are already dusted, surprisingly.

No pinging at all here. It is super light though so tough to be sure as this light intensity is such that you'd never here any pinging if there was sleet.

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SPC-WRF has one heck of a coastal front - BOS is 5 degrees warmer than NYC. Not buying that, but I think it has a fairly good handle on temps in the NYC area.

FWIW - prior runs of the SPC WRF were very good on the snow currently breaking out over the NYC area well out ahead of the main batch, though still about 2 hours too slow.

SPC-WRF at 36 hours has significant precipitation ongoing...surface temperatures are around -3 C at this time. Surface temp link is above the radar image.

http://www.emc.ncep....00/t2ms_f36.gif

refd_1000m_f36.gif

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Should there be an obs thread by now??

Anyway - Thinking worst of this storm clearly overnight Tues/Wed and going with .2-max .5" ice for the Island before any change to plain rain. A lot of room for error with this storm, only a few miles and barely a degree difference in temps will make for big changes between towns!

Currently here in East Setauket:

T - 27F

Td - 18F

Wind NNW5

Humidity: 68%

Light Snow Falling

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I am a little surprised at the reports of IP already looking at the ACARS / AMDAR data soundings are well below freezing through the column.

Seems like this is common throughout much of the region...and maybe a little connected to precip intensity at the start?? As I drove from Middlesex county down the NJTP to Gloucester county around 9-10pm I found that there was sleet and graupel in the lighter intensity bands...but once I got in to steadier precip (farther south) it was more a light but steady snow. Seeing this pattern also in the central Pa threads....sleet and snow pellets in the first lighter bands, then snow in steadier follow on bands....

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Should there be an obs thread by now??

Anyway - Thinking worst of this storm clearly overnight Tues/Wed and going with .2-max .5" ice for the Island before any change to plain rain. A lot of room for error with this storm, only a few miles and barely a degree difference in temps will make for big changes between towns!

Currently here in East Setauket:

T - 27F

Td - 18F

Wind NNW5

Humidity: 68%

Light Snow Falling

I have .25" snow/Pellets in Westbury as of this moment. I don't think we see a change to rain till much later than anticipated. I'm already halfway to your max.

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