EasternLI Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Not the best model to use in this set up. There could be an arguement that there is NO model best to use for this set-up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Hard to say. Negligible in my opinion. Negligible? The 18z GFS had surface temps at 0 down to Phl at hour 42. Hour 36 of the 00z GFS has that line all the way up to NYC. That's a 50+ mile shift northward. Of course, that much volatility means that it could shift 50+ miles south at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 What do the latest meso scale models (MM5, ARW, NMM ) show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Both models still have .5-.75 frozen QPF for the NYC area. That is really scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Not the best model to use in this set up. none of the models that people seem to be weighing so heavily tonight are the right ones for this event. In fact, I'd bet the final solution is quite different than what is being shown based on how poor the run to run continuity has been. The models can't even decide on how strong the high pressure is going to be from one run to the next. BTW some of the mets over in the Philly thread think the GFS surface freezing line is too far north based on the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Negligible? The 18z GFS had surface temps at 0 down to Phl at hour 42. Hour 36 of the 00z GFS has that line all the way up to NYC. That's a 50+ mile shift northward. Of course, that much volatility means that it could shift 50+ miles south at 6z. For Philly yes but in NYC the freezing line was not that far away as it had more of SW-NE orientation. at 0z, it is a more west-east orientation which gives an end result of a move north that is negligible and less than that 50 mile jump you mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Negligible? The 18z GFS had surface temps at 0 down to Phl at hour 42. Hour 36 of the 00z GFS has that line all the way up to NYC. That's a 50+ mile shift northward. Of course, that much volatility means that it could shift 50+ miles south at 6z. mets on Philly thread saying GFS probably is moving surface 0 line too far north too quickly based on the surface features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 SUNY MM5 still extremely warm, with the 0C surface isotherm north of NYC and through the northern areas of NJ at 21Z on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lisnow66 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 SUNY MM5 still extremely warm, with the 0C surface isotherm north of NYC and through the northern areas of NJ at 21Z on Tuesday. Wait...wasn't this the model that called for mostly frozen in NYC and LI just 8 hours ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Wait...wasn't this the model that called for mostly frozen in NYC and LI just 8 hours ago? It is unreliable past 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lisnow66 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 It is unreliable past 36 hours. Hell..what model has been reliable this winter? Last storm most all missed the early few inches we got so who knows. Just remember one storm in 93-94 where forecasters called for turn to rain and we were stuck in 20s for the whole storm so lots of ice. I remember Mr. G on the radio saying that freezing line won't make it up here as models suggested. Is this storm anything like the setup of the Jan 78 storm where 3-5 inches then rain turned into over a foor of snow with sleet at the end? That was followed on Feb 6 with the BIG one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 It is unreliable past 36 hours. 21 hours from now is pretty well inside 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lisnow66 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 21 hours from now is pretty well inside 36 hours. Think he meant that the call for mostly frozen earlier today was not within it's range and not the current warm solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 21 hours from now is pretty well inside 36 hours. I am saying the model is unreliable from forecast hour 36 to the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I am saying the model is unreliable from forecast hour 36 to the end of the run. They were discussing hour 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Snow to ice to rain is not a total loss by any means, not all rain, not all ice, but a mix of all three could still help preserve the snowpack...of course rain to frozen precip would be more sufficient. z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Maybe a little OT here, but why is it every time a major weather event is happening/going to happen the NWS experiences server problems? Something they should look into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 SPC-WRF at 36 hours has significant precipitation ongoing...surface temperatures are around -3 C at this time. Surface temp link is above the radar image. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/00/t2ms_f36.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Very light snow/sleet mix right now. Temp. has dropped nearly one degree, now at 26.4; still warmer than what model guidance had me at this hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 SPC-WRF at 36 hours has significant precipitation ongoing...surface temperatures are around -3 C at this time. Surface temp link is above the radar image. SPC nailed the last storm in terms of precip. and arrival time. I don't know how its temperatures normally are though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Mid level warm air advection already well under way, a bit earlier than forecast. Not surprising at all, this happens more often than not with these types of events as the models underforecast the push of WAA in the mid levels and are a bit slow with the start of precipitation. Also..going to be important to note OBS throughout the area as we lost a few hours of cooling..the NAM from this afternoon didn't have precipitation starting until 09z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 20/18 here now...spotted a couple light snow flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 25/9 here. Very Light Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Mid level warm air advection already well under way, a bit earlier than forecast. Not surprising at all, this happens more often than not with these types of events as the models underforecast the push of WAA in the mid levels and are a bit slow with the start of precipitation. Also..going to be important to note OBS throughout the area as we lost a few hours of cooling..the NAM from this afternoon didn't have precipitation starting until 09z. You better get that snow started early because a five letter word is going to be coming soon ... although it's better than one of those four letter words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 light snow,temp 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 You better get that snow started early because a five letter word is going to be coming soon ... although it's better than one of those four letter words. I can't even tell you what's falling from the sky now. It's not sleet, rain, or snow...seems like a general sh**-show to me so far...for the lack of a better term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I can't even tell you what's falling from the sky now. It's not sleet, rain, or snow...seems like a general sh**-show to me so far...for the lack of a better term. I was just out in it. Pure snow here without question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Getting some very light snow here with an occasional ping against my window. 26.2/13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I was just out in it. Pure snow here without question. You might have spoken too soon. I'm hearing more and more pinging just to your SW. Car tops and sidewalks are already dusted, surprisingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 VERY light, dry snow in Westbury NY right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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