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NYC CWA Feb 1-2 Storm Discussion


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Hard to say. Negligible in my opinion.

Negligible? The 18z GFS had surface temps at 0 down to Phl at hour 42. Hour 36 of the 00z GFS has that line all the way up to NYC. That's a 50+ mile shift northward. Of course, that much volatility means that it could shift 50+ miles south at 6z. :arrowhead:

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Not the best model to use in this set up.

none of the models that people seem to be weighing so heavily tonight are the right ones for this event. In fact, I'd bet the final solution is quite different than what is being shown based on how poor the run to run continuity has been. The models can't even decide on how strong the high pressure is going to be from one run to the next.

BTW some of the mets over in the Philly thread think the GFS surface freezing line is too far north based on the surface.

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Negligible? The 18z GFS had surface temps at 0 down to Phl at hour 42. Hour 36 of the 00z GFS has that line all the way up to NYC. That's a 50+ mile shift northward. Of course, that much volatility means that it could shift 50+ miles south at 6z. :arrowhead:

For Philly yes but in NYC the freezing line was not that far away as it had more of SW-NE orientation. at 0z, it is a more west-east orientation which gives an end result of a move north that is negligible and less than that 50 mile jump you mentioned.

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Negligible? The 18z GFS had surface temps at 0 down to Phl at hour 42. Hour 36 of the 00z GFS has that line all the way up to NYC. That's a 50+ mile shift northward. Of course, that much volatility means that it could shift 50+ miles south at 6z. :arrowhead:

mets on Philly thread saying GFS probably is moving surface 0 line too far north too quickly based on the surface features.

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It is unreliable past 36 hours.

Hell..what model has been reliable this winter? Last storm most all missed the early few inches we got so who knows. Just remember one storm in 93-94 where forecasters called for turn to rain and we were stuck in 20s for the whole storm so lots of ice. I remember Mr. G on the radio saying that freezing line won't make it up here as models suggested. Is this storm anything like the setup of the Jan 78 storm where 3-5 inches then rain turned into over a foor of snow with sleet at the end? That was followed on Feb 6 with the BIG one.

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SPC-WRF at 36 hours has significant precipitation ongoing...surface temperatures are around -3 C at this time. Surface temp link is above the radar image.

SPC nailed the last storm in terms of precip. and arrival time. I don't know how its temperatures normally are though...

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Mid level warm air advection already well under way, a bit earlier than forecast. Not surprising at all, this happens more often than not with these types of events as the models underforecast the push of WAA in the mid levels and are a bit slow with the start of precipitation. Also..going to be important to note OBS throughout the area as we lost a few hours of cooling..the NAM from this afternoon didn't have precipitation starting until 09z.

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Mid level warm air advection already well under way, a bit earlier than forecast. Not surprising at all, this happens more often than not with these types of events as the models underforecast the push of WAA in the mid levels and are a bit slow with the start of precipitation. Also..going to be important to note OBS throughout the area as we lost a few hours of cooling..the NAM from this afternoon didn't have precipitation starting until 09z.

You better get that snow started early because a five letter word is going to be coming soon ;)... although it's better than one of those four letter words.

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You better get that snow started early because a five letter word is going to be coming soon ;)... although it's better than one of those four letter words.

I can't even tell you what's falling from the sky now. It's not sleet, rain, or snow...seems like a general sh**-show to me so far...for the lack of a better term.

:lol:

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