NorthShoreWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 1 inch + of rain with temps reaching 40 at least for areas SE of NYC Which areas SE of NYC? Hudson canyon or Bermuda? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Which areas SE of NYC? Hudson canyon or Bermuda? I think he posts from Ambrose Light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Upton lowered the snow amounts for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 0z Nam text soundings At 36 hours, NYC has 0.61 QPF, which all of that is frozen. Temps are in the upper 20's. At 42 hours, it warms up to 34 degrees. That's the warmest that it gets. http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_Knyc.txt I think the Nam handles it better. Question on terminology: Doesn't "frozen" refer to snow, sleet, graupel, hail etc... and not freezing rain? Freezing rain isn't frozen until after it is no longer falling precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 As Jake said before, there is a lot of physical processes that go on with a melting snowflake. Yeah, there is a large warm layer, but while it's actually melting, its temperature does not change, since it is undergoing a phase-change. It's not like it's instantly just going to go to +5C like the warm layer's temperature actually is. It can only commence warming post-melting when it's 100% completely melted. Thus, the rain drops will probably be around 33 degrees, not 37 degrees, and given the amount of surface cold being forecast, there is certainly enough cold to supercool the droplet. On the other hand 33 vs 37 is insignificant when you consider the amount of heat which must be removed for the phase change back to frozen as compared to dropping the liquid temperature from 37 to 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Upton lowered the snow amounts for many The 4.0" of snow/sleet that is forecasted to accumulate at KNYC would take them over 60" for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Put another way, the latent heat release to freeze a drop of water at 0C is 80 times as much as is released in lowering the temperature of a liquid drop from +1 to 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Upton lowered the snow amounts for many What were they earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Upton lowered the snow amounts for many and raised it for me interesting.. id be suprised if i get half of that 10-12" forecasted for mby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 What were they earlier? It was 5.0 for KNYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 <br />and raised it for me interesting.. id be suprised if i get half of that 10-12" forecasted for mby<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />I feel the same way.. As much as I'd love to get the 5-6 inches forecasted in southern rockland county, unfortunately upton always is too high in situations where snow changes to ice in my location. In fact, I cannot recall a single time where we got the forecasted amount. Generally it is about half the total forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 FINAL FORECAST SOUTH OF I-95: TRACE - 2" SNOW UP TO 1" SLEET UP TO 1/10" ICE THEN RAIN AROUND I95: 2-4'' SNOW SLEET 1/4" ICE THEN RAIN LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT: 4-8" SNOW SLEET ICE ZONE UP TO 1/2"ICE EXTREME NORTH AND EXTREME NORTH WEST CWA: 8"+ SNOW SLEET/ ICE UP TO 1/2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 They also upped the ice to .29 when it was .2 before for KNYC. Wouldn't 4'' of snow+.3'' ice trigger a winter storm warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Starting to see some flurries here in Brooklyn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 00Z RGEM Total Snow 00Z RGEM Total freezing rain 00Z RGEM Total Sleet 00Z RGEM Total Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 GFS coming in substnatially warmer than 18z. High is weaker and in worse placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 GFS coming in substnatially warmer than 18z. High is weaker and in worse placement. Freezing line is still south of NYC at 30 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 GFS coming in substnatially warmer than 18z. High is weaker and in worse placement. I wouldn't say substantially warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Freezing line is still south of NYC at 30 hours. and bisecting the city at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The continuity on these models this season has been something god awfull. This is going to come into a nowcasting event. For my area, far western border of Upton and Mt. Holly I'm fairly convinced I'm in for a catastrophic ice storm. As for the city, one run they get warning criteria snow, the next they get severe ice, then rain, then back to snow. I wouldn't be suprised if the next 12z run shows an entirely different picture. With how horrible the models have been so far this year I can't believe people are writting off a storm just based on what a few models are saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lisnow66 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Freezing line is still south of NYC at 30 hours. So is it warmer or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Nowcasting! Models have been awful this season. Lets not live and die by each run. Again we have strong high pressure in the eastern lakes suppying low level cold into the area with a deep snow pack. DP's are extremely low. This will be a snow to ice event for many. Flooding won't be an issue unless you are in Southern Jersey coast. More concerned about ice then flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 and bisecting the city at 36 Which is exactly what the 00z NAM had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I wouldn't say substantially warmer. For this kind of event, it is. At 48 on the 18z, the freezing line is on Philly. At 42 on the 00z, the freezing line is on NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 So is it warmer or not? slightly warmer. High is a little further north, which allows the primary to go a bit north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Nowcasting! Models have been awful this season. Lets not live and die by each run. Again we have strong high pressure in the eastern lakes suppying low level cold into the area with a deep snow pack. DP's are extremely low. This will be a snow to ice event for many. Flooding won't be an issue unless you are in Southern Jersey coast. More concerned about ice then flooding. Yea I hate when people live and die by the models. All winter it has been colder on gameday than on the guidance so let see if trend continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 accumulated precip on 00z GFS through 36 hrs. Would think most of this is frozen or freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 accumulated precip on 00z GFS through 36 hrs. Would think most of this is frozen or freezing Not the best model to use in this set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 So is it warmer or not? Hard to say. Negligible in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Definitely warmer in terms of the surface and 850 lines. Some of the western mets hinted that the storm would be stronger and further west than modeled....well see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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