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NYC CWA Feb 1-2 Storm Discussion


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0z Nam text soundings

At 36 hours, NYC has 0.61 QPF, which all of that is frozen. Temps are in the upper 20's. At 42 hours, it warms up to 34 degrees. That's the warmest that it gets.

http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_Knyc.txt

I think the Nam handles it better.

Question on terminology: Doesn't "frozen" refer to snow, sleet, graupel, hail etc... and not freezing rain? Freezing rain isn't frozen until after it is no longer falling precipitation.

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As Jake said before, there is a lot of physical processes that go on with a melting snowflake. Yeah, there is a large warm layer, but while it's actually melting, its temperature does not change, since it is undergoing a phase-change. It's not like it's instantly just going to go to +5C like the warm layer's temperature actually is. It can only commence warming post-melting when it's 100% completely melted. Thus, the rain drops will probably be around 33 degrees, not 37 degrees, and given the amount of surface cold being forecast, there is certainly enough cold to supercool the droplet.

On the other hand 33 vs 37 is insignificant when you consider the amount of heat which must be removed for the phase change back to frozen as compared to dropping the liquid temperature from 37 to 33.

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<br />and raised it for me interesting.. id be suprised if i get half of that 10-12&quot; forecasted for mby<br />
<br /><br /><br /><br />I feel the same way.. As much as I'd love to get the 5-6 inches forecasted in southern rockland county, unfortunately upton always is too high in situations where snow changes to ice in my location. In fact, I cannot recall a single time where we got the forecasted amount. Generally it is about half the total forecast.
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The continuity on these models this season has been something god awfull. This is going to come into a nowcasting event. For my area, far western border of Upton and Mt. Holly I'm fairly convinced I'm in for a catastrophic ice storm. As for the city, one run they get warning criteria snow, the next they get severe ice, then rain, then back to snow. I wouldn't be suprised if the next 12z run shows an entirely different picture. With how horrible the models have been so far this year I can't believe people are writting off a storm just based on what a few models are saying.

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Nowcasting! Models have been awful this season. Lets not live and die by each run. Again we have strong high pressure in the eastern lakes suppying low level cold into the area with a deep snow pack. DP's are extremely low. This will be a snow to ice event for many. Flooding won't be an issue unless you are in Southern Jersey coast. More concerned about ice then flooding.

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Nowcasting! Models have been awful this season. Lets not live and die by each run. Again we have strong high pressure in the eastern lakes suppying low level cold into the area with a deep snow pack. DP's are extremely low. This will be a snow to ice event for many. Flooding won't be an issue unless you are in Southern Jersey coast. More concerned about ice then flooding.

Yea I hate when people live and die by the models. All winter it has been colder on gameday than on the guidance so let see if trend continues

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