Stormlover74 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 And interestingly none are in February This years two big storms would make the top 5 on chicago's list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Ok we're off topic. Aren't the latest SREF's out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Figured I'd throw this out there, from e-wall- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 thru 15 hr on the NAM it is colder with the first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 850's north of NYC at hour 18 and only about .15"-.20" of precip has fallen. SWCT on north is .25"-.50" and appears all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 visual.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 thru hr 30 a 1032 high has now appeared just north of Lake Huron and the primary is 2 mb weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Precip entering back into our area around midnight tomorrow night in the form of ice or sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm hoping we just have rain over here rather than freezing rain. Based on how warm it is aloft as shown by the NAM, we probably won't even see much if any snow over here but sleet. The first wave doesn't look very impressive over here on the NAM. So now I'm just really hoping we're in the mid to upper 30s and raining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 hr 36 so far is .50+ of frozen preciep for the city...major ice storm going on in central pa and lehigh valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 At 36 hours, heavy precip is into the NYC area with the freezing line right through the City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 NAM has the low in the same spot as 18z but is a touch warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 .25" of ice thru 7am Wednesday morning. Ice comes in very late tomorrow night and will easily accumulate in the wee hours of morning. Wednesday morning's commute will be treacherous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 It's probably warm enough to keep us at plain rain and no ice. I would be shocked if our area got much of any freezing rain to cause big problems. Temps will be near freezing, but should not be a big problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 By hour 39, 10am Wednesday morning, NYC is slightly above freezing. Ice appears to be close to .50" before rain moves in. Good luck to us early Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 It's probably warm enough to keep us at plain rain and no ice. Wrong. Try examining the model instead of saying what it "probably" says. We look icy between 00Z and 12Z Wednesday. This is what falls between then: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I would be shocked if our area got much of any freezing rain to cause big problems. Temps will be near freezing, but should not be a big problem. Normally yes, But precip comes in at midnight when surface is mid to upper 20's and stays below freezing until 10am Wednesday. Ice will easily gather in those wee hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I would be shocked if our area got much of any freezing rain to cause big problems. Temps will be near freezing, but should not be a big problem. This doesn't look icy to you? And while not high-res, those temps aren't "near freezing". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Seems like the NAM continues to nudge warmer as we approach the event...which supports the ideas posted by a few earlier. The NAM in the short term generally runs a bit too cold in the thermal profiles with these types of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Wrong. Try examining the model instead of saying what it "probably" says. We look icy between 00Z and 12Z Wednesday. This is what falls between then: Seriously. What are people looking at? We also prob tack on a little more thru 15z Wednesday. At that time we are 33-34 with close to .75" fallen. NAM is definitely an icy mess late tomorrow night thru 7-10am Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 this run of the NAM everything was a touch north. We need that primary to die sooner and that high to be further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Models or no models..the fact is we have strong high pressure over the eastern lakes which supports a lot of low level cold air and a very deep snow pack...i'd bet the heaviest precip falls with temps below freezing for most of the area bank on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 the fact we may (MAY) change to plain at/or around 10-11am Wednesday is becoming irrelevant at this point for the NYC area, the morning commute is going to be terrible, and in a worst case, power problems will surly be a concern when the winds pick up during the afternoon. I could see if we were going to shoot up to near 40, thus melting any accumulation of ice, but the likelihood of this happening in 75-80 percent of the area is steadily decreasing IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Seems like the NAM continues to nudge warmer as we approach the event...which supports the ideas posted by a few earlier. The NAM in the short term generally runs a bit too cold in the thermal profiles with these types of events. U think that with temps 25-29 from midnight tomorrow thru 7am Wednesday morning and .25"-.40" of precip, ice won't be a major problem early Wednesday? If it were in middle of day, then no. But as depicted Wednesday morning early commute will be impossible. By noonish Wednesday ice threat is way over though as it's raining moderately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Seems like the NAM continues to nudge warmer as we approach the event...which supports the ideas posted by a few earlier. The NAM in the short term generally runs a bit too cold in the thermal profiles with these types of events. I still think flooding will be a bigger problem then what is being taked about, ZR or sleet for NYC and Long Isalnd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I still think flooding will be a bigger problem then what is being taked about, ZR or sleet for NYC and Long Isalnd i disagree unless temps go above 37 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Idk how accurate this is...but nam snowfall map at sv is 4-8 for all of us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I still think flooding will be a bigger problem then what is being taked about, ZR or sleet for NYC and Long Isalnd flooding from what? there is only around 3/4 of an inch of rain with temps in the mid 30s? It wont be from snow melt so I'm not sure where the flooding will come from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 it leaves alot of energy back...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I still think flooding will be a bigger problem then what is being taked about, ZR or sleet for NYC and Long Isalnd I think a combination of the two will definitely cause issues..there will certainly be a period of IP/ZR that is not in question..but this goes over to plain rain faster than most people think in the city...that I am almost sure of, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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