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NYC CWA Feb 1-2 Storm Discussion


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I'm hoping we just have rain over here rather than freezing rain. Based on how warm it is aloft as shown by the NAM, we probably won't even see much if any snow over here but sleet. The first wave doesn't look very impressive over here on the NAM. So now I'm just really hoping we're in the mid to upper 30s and raining.

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I would be shocked if our area got much of any freezing rain to cause big problems. Temps will be near freezing, but should not be a big problem.

Normally yes,

But precip comes in at midnight when surface is mid to upper 20's and stays below freezing until 10am Wednesday.

Ice will easily gather in those wee hours.

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Wrong. Try examining the model instead of saying what it "probably" says.

We look icy between 00Z and 12Z Wednesday. This is what falls between then:

nam_p12_036l.gif

Seriously. What are people looking at?

We also prob tack on a little more thru 15z Wednesday. At that time we are 33-34 with close to .75" fallen.

NAM is definitely an icy mess late tomorrow night thru 7-10am Wednesday.

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the fact we may (MAY) change to plain at/or around 10-11am Wednesday is becoming irrelevant at this point for the NYC area, the morning commute is going to be terrible, and in a worst case, power problems will surly be a concern when the winds pick up during the afternoon. I could see if we were going to shoot up to near 40, thus melting any accumulation of ice, but the likelihood of this happening in 75-80 percent of the area is steadily decreasing IMHO.

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Seems like the NAM continues to nudge warmer as we approach the event...which supports the ideas posted by a few earlier. The NAM in the short term generally runs a bit too cold in the thermal profiles with these types of events.

U think that with temps 25-29 from midnight tomorrow thru 7am Wednesday morning and .25"-.40" of precip, ice won't be a major problem early Wednesday?

If it were in middle of day, then no.

But as depicted Wednesday morning early commute will be impossible.

By noonish Wednesday ice threat is way over though as it's raining moderately.

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Seems like the NAM continues to nudge warmer as we approach the event...which supports the ideas posted by a few earlier. The NAM in the short term generally runs a bit too cold in the thermal profiles with these types of events.

I still think flooding will be a bigger problem then what is being taked about, ZR or sleet for NYC and Long Isalnd

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I still think flooding will be a bigger problem then what is being taked about, ZR or sleet for NYC and Long Isalnd

I think a combination of the two will definitely cause issues..there will certainly be a period of IP/ZR that is not in question..but this goes over to plain rain faster than most people think in the city...that I am almost sure of, as well.

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