jasonli18t Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 going to be interesting for us J. to see how this plays out. Yes, we tend to bust here with ice events on the plus side (if you like ice) especially over the last several years. Our area is one of the coldest spots on the island consistently it seems. I'm encouraged by the low dewpoints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm currently at 31/5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 25/3 here presently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 27/16 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 27/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yes, we tend to bust here with ice events on the plus side (if you like ice) especially over the last several years. Our area is one of the coldest spots on the island consistently it seems. I'm encouraged by the low dewpoints. We have NOTHING to complain about this winter Lol. I think we stay snow for longer than expected and than transition to sleet/freezing rain for another longer than expected period of time. My gut feeling is it's going to be a horror show Wednesday morning.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Just the way the winter has gone already should be enough to be concerned.....since we're posting temp/DP...14/10 IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yeah but in EWR for instance, 18z gfs is 0.23" snow tonight changing to 0.25" freezing rain by 1PM tmrw. The warm layer is no greater than 1-2ºC, but it is deep.. Then we get a break..Then 0.33" freezing rain tmrw night changing to rain tmrw morning (almost 0.5" rain). I wouldnt be surprised if the 0.25" freezing rain tmrw morning is actually sleet, but even then, that doesnt amount to 4-8 I agree... I don't see 6+ until one goes north of about a Middletown, NY to Middletown, Ct. line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I believe temps might spike at some point into the low to mid 30's but no upper 40's rainstorm with snow eating fog..mainly frozen and when all is said and done 48 hours from now it will (at least here on LI) look as it does now..no appreciable loss to the snowpack followed by a saturday event. Of course if we don't crack 32 degrees inside of 48 hours even better. Question to me is how much snow do we realistically add to the existintg snowpack? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Ice events are just about always nowcasting. That's mostly been my experience in central PA. How happy are you to be out of that winter wasteland? 2-4" events abound, ice storm after ice storm, dry slots, etc... such a torturous affair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 For your FYI, Upton went with warnings for all of NJ Except Essex and Hudson Counties and all of SE NY and CT except kept watches from extreme E NJ all the way through E LI i know this is going to be contrued as me being negative- NO WAY I SEE UP TO 8" of now Tuesday Night Freezing rain...snow and sleet likely in the evening...then snow...sleet with a chance of freezing rain after midnight. Total snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches. Near steady temperature in the upper 20s. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. 1-2"...plus sleet (maybe 1")....a forecast of 2-4" is a safer bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 i know this is going to be contrued as me being negative- NO WAY I SEE UP TO 8" of now Tuesday Night Freezing rain...snow and sleet likely in the evening...then snow...sleet with a chance of freezing rain after midnight. Total snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches. Near steady temperature in the upper 20s. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. 1-2"...plus sleet (maybe 1")....a forecast of 2-4" is a safer bet I totally agree with you, Upton is overforecasting the snow element of the storm. They have 7" here and I'd be happy to see 4"...seems as if we should be focusing more on the ice. Of course, much will depend on how strong the push of CAA is behind the overrunning wave... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Point and click for Manhattan, very bullish on accumulations... http://forecast.weat...198&lon=-73.993 Tonight...Cloudy. Snow likely after midnight. Snow accumulation around an inch. Lows in the lower 20s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent. Tuesday...Snow and sleet in the morning...then freezing rain... Sleet and snow in the afternoon. Additional snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Near steady temperature in the upper 20s. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. Tuesday Night...Freezing rain...snow and sleet likely in the evening...then snow...sleet with a chance of freezing rain after midnight. Total snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches. Near steady temperature in the upper 20s. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. Wednesday...Freezing rain...sleet and rain in the morning...then rain likely in the afternoon. Little or no additional sleet accumulation. Highs in the mid 30s. East winds 10 to 15 mph... Becoming northeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Wednesday Night...Mostly cloudy. Snow...freezing rain and rain likely in the evening...then a chance of light snow after midnight. Little or no snow accumulation. Lows in the mid 20s. Northwest winds around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. aaah the point and click is great....now im in 3-5...that makes more sense than 4-8" thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I can understand why you are saying that. One does have to wonder why such a generally conservative office is going with such high snowfall amounts. Perhaps they threw their hands in there air when the guidance began diverging today, NAM errors and all, and are relying more heavily on current SLP and analogs. Keep in mind also, the already stellar group at OKX collaborated with surrounding offices, including the legendary Walt Drag. When you add that to some very bullish long-time mets on the *threat* for what may transpire, it shouldn't be all that surprising that they went higher. Speaking of which, moisture field is beginning to pop while I ramble: http://www.wunderground.com/radar/mixedcomposite.asp?region=b5&size=2x&type=loop I totally agree with you, Upton is overforecasting the snow element of the storm. They have 7" here and I'd be happy to see 4"...seems as if we should be focusing more on the ice. Of course, much will depend on how strong the push of CAA is behind the overrunning wave... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I can understand why you are saying that. One does have to wonder why such a generally conservative office is going with such high snowfall amounts. Perhaps they threw their hands in there air when the guidance began diverging today, NAM errors and all, and are relying more heavily on current SLP and analogs. Keep in mind also, the already stellar group at OKX collaborated with surrounding offices, including the legendary Walt Drag. When you add that to some very bullish long-time mets on the *threat* for what may transpire, it shouldn't be all that surprising that they went higher. Speaking of which, moisture field is beginning to pop while I ramble: http://www.wundergro...ze=2x&type=loop those are the same guys who had almost all areas in the CWA at 4-8" of snow last week? I saw that total in 2 hours. People are human and are prone to making mistakes.... With that said- with the point and click forecast I was actually under 3-5"...better but i still think too high....NYC could see 5" JFK will see 2' (if they are lucky) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I can understand why you are saying that. One does have to wonder why such a generally conservative office is going with such high snowfall amounts. Perhaps they threw their hands in there air when the guidance began diverging today, NAM errors and all, and are relying more heavily on current SLP and analogs. Keep in mind also, the already stellar group at OKX collaborated with surrounding offices, including the legendary Walt Drag. When you add that to some very bullish long-time mets on the *threat* for what may transpire, it shouldn't be all that surprising that they went higher. Speaking of which, moisture field is beginning to pop while I ramble: http://www.wundergro...ze=2x&type=loop The radar does look pretty good over the Midwest, so perhaps we'll see a good thump from tonight's wave. I hadn't realized how fast the overrunning precip is filling in over IN. OKX does have the support of other offices in terms of being pretty bullish on this two-wave storm, so we'll see what transpires. Certainly going to be interesting. 21.5/3 FAIR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The radar does look pretty good over the Midwest, so perhaps we'll see a good thump from tonight's wave. I hadn't realized how fast the overrunning precip is filling in over IN. OKX does have the support of other offices in terms of being pretty bullish on this two-wave storm, so we'll see what transpires. Certainly going to be interesting. 21.5/3 FAIR one thing abt the radar in the midwest....I dont know the physics, but there is something- once it hits the mountains and downslopes the precip dries out in this area....it will look vastly different at this latitude than lets say by Middletown, Poughkeepsie, Albany, Western Mass, ORH and Boston... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I totally agree with you, Upton is overforecasting the snow element of the storm. They have 7" here and I'd be happy to see 4"...seems as if we should be focusing more on the ice. Of course, much will depend on how strong the push of CAA is behind the overrunning wave... How do you know they are overforecasting when the event hasn't even occured yet? You also realize they are experienced, professional meteorologists as well, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 How do you know they are overforecasting when the event hasn't even occured yet? You also realize they are experienced, professional meteorologists as well, right? Ah, one of these posts. I think we are all aware of the qualifications of the NWS just as much as we are aware of the qualifications of many public officials. We are still allowed to critique them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 slightly off topic but while we bicker over 1 or 2 inches here or there......this could be chicago's biggest snowstorm since 1999, 1979 before that, and could be #1 of all time if it breaks right for them. Biggest Snowstorms in Chicago and Rockford The following are the 10 ten greatest snowfall events in the Chicago and Rockford area. Chicago Since snow records began in 1886 in Chicago, there have been 41 winter storms that produced 10 inches or more of snow. A 10 inch snow occurs about once every 3 years. A 15 inch snow occurs only once about every 19 years. The closest back to back 10 inch snows were March 25-26 and April 1-2, 1970 (6 days apart). The longest period of time without a 10 inch snow or greater was February 12, 1981 to January 1, 1999 (almost 18 years). The earliest 10 inch snow was November 25-26, 1895 and the latest 10 inch snow was April 1-2, 1970. The most recent 10 inch snow was January 21-23, 2005. Chicago's 10 biggest Snowstorms: 23.0 inches Jan 26-27, 1967 21.6 inches Jan 1-3, 1999 19.2 inches Mar 25-26, 1930 18.8 inches Jan 13-14, 1979 16.2 inches Mar 7-8, 1931 15.0 inches Dec 17-20, 1929 14.9 inches Jan 30, 1939 14.9 inches Jan 6-7, 1918 14.3 inches Mar 25-26, 1970 14.0 inches Jan 18-20, 1886 Rockford There have been 21 10-inch snows in Rockford’s history. The closest back-to-back 10-inch snows were January 14 – 15 and January 17 – 19 1943 (2 days). Therefore, it’s no wonder than the 1942 – 1943 season is ranked second for the most snowfall, right after the blizzard season of 1978 – 1979 with an amazing 74.5 inches of snow recorded! Rockford’s Ten Biggest Snowstorms 16.3 inches on January 6 - 7, 1918 16.0 inches on March 30 – 31, 1926 15.0 inches on March 21 – 22, 1932 13.8 inches on March 1 – 2, 1948 12.9 inches on December 11 – 13, 1909 12.5 inches on February 10 – 11, 1944 12.3 inches on January 11 – 14, 1979 12.0 inches on January 17 – 19, 1943 11.5 inches on January 14 – 15, 1943 11.4 inches on December 14 – 16, 1987 and 11.4 inches on February 9 – 10, 1960 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 actually based on what you posted it could be the biggest storm in chicago since 1999. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 How do you know they are overforecasting when the event hasn't even occured yet? You also realize they are experienced, professional meteorologists as well, right? I don't know, it's just my opinion that it'll be hard to eek out 7" here on a SW flow event with warm mid-level temps creeping northward rather quickly. I'm not doubting that we'll get several inches of snow followed by significant icing, but some of the models like the 18z NAM show very little in the way of pure snow, certainly not the amounts forecasted by Upton; most of the storm is contaminated with sleet and freezing rain. Also, SW flow events tend to have more warmth in the mid-levels than forecasted; even in the epic 2/14/07 storm, with a ridiculously cold boundary layer, the sleet line made it all the way to Rutland, VT. One thing we do have going for us is the CAA behind the first wave which the models have been latching onto. I doubt we'll see the totals from OKX verify but this would be the key to getting the second wave of the storm to start as a thump of heavy snow. It's definitely a nowcast situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 From experience very rarely do the NWS forecast snow totals bust too low. As has been the case almost all season, they have ended up being too low and have increased them as the event was upon us. Did you ever stop and think that with all the experience they have in those offices and with far more data than we have that perhaps they think the models are not forecasting the event properly? I can gurantee you, they didn't settle on those numbers lightly. Don't call it a bust when a single flake has not fallen yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I don't know, it's just my opinion that it'll be hard to eek out 7" here on a SW flow event with warm mid-level temps creeping northward rather quickly. I'm not doubting that we'll get several inches of snow followed by significant icing, but some of the models like the 18z NAM show very little in the way of pure snow, certainly not the amounts forecasted by Upton; most of the storm is contaminated with sleet and freezing rain. Also, SW flow events tend to have more warmth in the mid-levels than forecasted; even in the epic 2/14/07 storm, with a ridiculously cold boundary layer, the sleet line made it all the way to Rutland, VT. One thing we do have going for us is the CAA behind the first wave which the models have been latching onto. I doubt we'll see the totals from OKX verify but this would be the key to getting the second wave of the storm to start as a thump of heavy snow. It's definitely a nowcast situation. Yeah, I think that's it right there that gives us a pretty good shot at verifying. I'm actually up in Putnam where they are calling for 7-12...fingers crossed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 latest analogs through 36 hrs fixed on the NE - #1 is the big ice storm from 94 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EAST&model=GFS212&fhr=036&flg=fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 slightly off topic but while we bicker over 1 or 2 inches here or there......this could be chicago's biggest snowstorm since 1999, 1979 before that, and could be #1 of all time if it breaks right for them. in the last 10 years in central NJ, we've had 9 storms that would be on the chicago's all-time top 10 list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I totally agree with you, Upton is overforecasting the snow element of the storm. They have 7" here and I'd be happy to see 4"...seems as if we should be focusing more on the ice. Of course, much will depend on how strong the push of CAA is behind the overrunning wave... Perhaps...if the NAM verifies (0z run will be key). But the 18z GFS had around 8" here, so the solution is not all that impossible to have happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 We got the ocean, makes a big difference. Thou, ORD may break their record from this one, it will be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 latest analogs through 36 hrs fixed on the NE - #1 is the big ice storm from 94 http://www.eas.slu.e...r=036&flg=fixed what is that second analog? Why are they using a 168hr period to accumulate snow for Jan 2 1996??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 This years two big storms would make the top 5 on chicago's list. That's why we take the risk of living on the coast; it gives us the chance to experience the truly great winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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