NorthShoreWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I agree they aren't very common, but the poster who grew up with many ice-storms, you make an excellent point, and that actual makes sense based on what I remember from mid-western ice-storms of the past. The blacktop is often completely wet but the problems never arise from ice accretion on the blacktop, it almost always has to do with the accretion and power lines and trees, which is almost an absolute if temps are in the mid to upper 20's. I think some people may be dismissing this based on climatic history for the area, but the truth is, that even if we only manage to accrete 0.3 in of ice on trees and powerlines, that could easily create problems, (for NYC metro at least). In my location, and for the surrounding areas, I am a little nervous as the potential impacts up here could be huge. I've seen it both ways on LI. December 1973 knocked out power for most of the island and the streets were mainly wet. The ice storm in January 1978 did likewise, but the streets were also coated with hard ice, at least where I was on the north shore (same location for both ice storms). Part of the difference in '78 was that some snow fell before the ice, while in 73 there was very little snow on LI (but a couple of inches in NYC). Here is from the 78 storm: http://www.northshor...om/19780113.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It looks as if we see about 4" of snow tonight on the GFS, with some freezing rain tomorrow. There's also a bit of CAA behind the initial overrunning wave, which allows some parts of the NYC metro to start as snow in the main SW flow event before transitioning over to ZR/PL. Really a very interesting and potentially dangerous storm here, especially in Westchester where surface conditions are going to be colder. The secondary tries to squeeze out south of us, allowing more of the NE flow from the high to remain over the CWA. Another nowcast event with a very close call between heavy snow, devastating ice, and plain rain. I think my locale being a bit north of you might fare better in terms of remaining frozen(im also technically in the northern westchester forecast zone even though its by like 2 miles) but I think in the end we both see roughly 4-7in of snow and significant ice. You maybe more significant ice and maybe more snow for me but either way pretty dangerous event setting up around here. I've never experienced an ice storm with ZR accretion of greater than 0.10 so it'll be interesting to see how this turns out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 OK folks, it is nowcast time from my perspective. The first parameter I want to point out is that there will be little radiational cooling tonight, even last night Newburgh bottomed out at 1f while Manhattan was in the low-20s with radiational cooling. So clearly the snowpack is really not going to be a great help to us in the city in cooling surface temps unless we have a nice NE gradient. Second, temps are currently running around 30f in the city, sure there will be some evaporative cooling with the onset of precip, but not 10 degrees worth. That's my take, regardless of what the models are or are not showing. its 29 in the park with a DP of 6. Plenty of room to wet-bulb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 18z GFS total snow accumulation map on storm vista has the following...a good 4" increase across the board from 12z. 2-4 inches north of a line from Mercer County NJ to Sandy Hook 4-8 inches north of a line from Hunterdon County, NJ to Staten Island including all of Uptons CWA. 8-12 inches north of a line from the Sussex, Northern Passaic county border...all of SE NY..and interior Fairfield, New Haven, Litchfield (away from the CT coast). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 My current temp is 31 and my forecast low is 18. We will cool tonight you can count on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It looks as if we see about 4" of snow tonight on the GFS, with some freezing rain tomorrow. There's also a bit of CAA behind the initial overrunning wave, which allows some parts of the NYC metro to start as snow in the main SW flow event before transitioning over to ZR/PL. Really a very interesting and potentially dangerous storm here, especially in Westchester where surface conditions are going to be colder. The secondary tries to squeeze out south of us, allowing more of the NE flow from the high to remain over the CWA. Another nowcast event with a very close call between heavy snow, devastating ice, and plain rain. Just realized you're techinically in the N. Westchester forecasting zone as well, also by just a few miles.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Point and click for Manhattan, very bullish on accumulations... http://forecast.weat...198&lon=-73.993 Tonight...Cloudy. Snow likely after midnight. Snow accumulation around an inch. Lows in the lower 20s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent. Tuesday...Snow and sleet in the morning...then freezing rain... Sleet and snow in the afternoon. Additional snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Near steady temperature in the upper 20s. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. Tuesday Night...Freezing rain...snow and sleet likely in the evening...then snow...sleet with a chance of freezing rain after midnight. Total snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches. Near steady temperature in the upper 20s. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. Wednesday...Freezing rain...sleet and rain in the morning...then rain likely in the afternoon. Little or no additional sleet accumulation. Highs in the mid 30s. East winds 10 to 15 mph... Becoming northeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Wednesday Night...Mostly cloudy. Snow...freezing rain and rain likely in the evening...then a chance of light snow after midnight. Little or no snow accumulation. Lows in the mid 20s. Northwest winds around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 its 29 in the park with a DP of 6. Plenty of room to wet-bulb. yes, but I think here in Manhattan, and mind you I am only referring to that location, we need to get down to about 20 tonight in order to remain below 30f during the daylight hours, and that's the temp that matters in the concrete jungle for any real accretion...even central park has a different climo than the rest of the island, they can probably stay zr below 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Point and click for Manhattan, very bullish on accumulations... http://forecast.weat...198&lon=-73.993 Tonight...Cloudy. Snow likely after midnight. Snow accumulation around an inch. Lows in the lower 20s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent. Tuesday...Snow and sleet in the morning...then freezing rain... Sleet and snow in the afternoon. Additional snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Near steady temperature in the upper 20s. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. Tuesday Night...Freezing rain...snow and sleet likely in the evening...then snow...sleet with a chance of freezing rain after midnight. Total snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches. Near steady temperature in the upper 20s. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. Wednesday...Freezing rain...sleet and rain in the morning...then rain likely in the afternoon. Little or no additional sleet accumulation. Highs in the mid 30s. East winds 10 to 15 mph... Becoming northeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Wednesday Night...Mostly cloudy. Snow...freezing rain and rain likely in the evening...then a chance of light snow after midnight. Little or no snow accumulation. Lows in the mid 20s. Northwest winds around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. 18z GFS thinks so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I think my locale being a bit north of you might fare better in terms of remaining frozen(im also technically in the northern westchester forecast zone even though its by like 2 miles) but I think in the end we both see roughly 4-7in of snow and significant ice. You maybe more significant ice and maybe more snow for me but either way pretty dangerous event setting up around here. I've never experienced an ice storm with ZR accretion of greater than 0.10 so it'll be interesting to see how this turns out. You might do a little better as it's mostly a latitude gradient, elevation and distance from the water won't be as important here. I think we'll all see 3-5" of snow tonight with a changeover to freezing rain in the morning, wouldn't be surprised if schools are closed or delayed with the road conditions' deterioration in the overnight hours. This will be an event where the NYC 5 Boroughs probably see minimal effects compared to more suburban areas, not to say Manhattan is out of the water completely but this screams of a "north and west" storm. We have nearly the perfect set-up for serious icing with a cold banana high ushering in fresh cold air on NE winds while SW flow takes over at the mid and upper levels; this is especially true tomorrow morning when there should be several hours of light precipitation, which allows the freezing rain to accrue better. The real question is about the 2nd wave...I'm thinking it's a quick start as snow then over to sleet, maybe ZR holds on for Northern Westchester while Southern Westchester sees a couple hours of plain rain. There's clearly a difference among the models in terms of how much CAA occurs after the first wave and how fast the surface freezing contour advances north due to the development of the secondary low in different places. Needless to say, Tuesday and Wednesday morning commutes are going to be messy, perhaps devastating. I bet schools are closed tomorrow with 2-hr delays in S Westchester on Wednesday and closings for the northern part of the County where ZR is the predominate p-type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 18z GFS total snow accumulation map on storm vista has the following...a good 4" increase across the board from 12z. 2-4 inches north of a line from Mercer County NJ to Sandy Hook 4-8 inches north of a line from Hunterdon County, NJ to Staten Island including all of Uptons CWA. 8-12 inches north of a line from the Sussex, Northern Passaic county border...all of SE NY..and interior Fairfield, New Haven, Litchfield (away from the CT coast). Sheesh, this is going to be really close. Colder trend does seem to continue though doesn't it? I know this is a 18Z run, but its a little concerning no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Point and click for Manhattan, very bullish on accumulations... http://forecast.weat...198&lon=-73.993 Tonight...Cloudy. Snow likely after midnight. Snow accumulation around an inch. Lows in the lower 20s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent. Tuesday...Snow and sleet in the morning...then freezing rain... Sleet and snow in the afternoon. Additional snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Near steady temperature in the upper 20s. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. Tuesday Night...Freezing rain...snow and sleet likely in the evening...then snow...sleet with a chance of freezing rain after midnight. Total snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches. Near steady temperature in the upper 20s. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. Wednesday...Freezing rain...sleet and rain in the morning...then rain likely in the afternoon. Little or no additional sleet accumulation. Highs in the mid 30s. East winds 10 to 15 mph... Becoming northeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Wednesday Night...Mostly cloudy. Snow...freezing rain and rain likely in the evening...then a chance of light snow after midnight. Little or no snow accumulation. Lows in the mid 20s. Northwest winds around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. ahhh, that would be nice...and if we can see 20f tonight as the poster from Pompton Plains? pointed out, then I think we have a 60-70% chance of staying below freezing throughout the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 yes, but I think here in Manhattan, and mind you I am only referring to that location, we need to get down to about 20 tonight in order to remain below 30f during the daylight hours, and that's the temp that matters in the concrete jungle for any real accretion...even central park has a different climo than the rest of the island, they can probably stay zr below 32 I think we can all agree manhattan, even though it is pretty far west in comparison to other areas, as well as relatively far north, is in an awful location for this storm. I do think they (you?) see 2-4in altogether but the freezing rain that falls will likely not accumulate unless you're in CP or areas with a lot of trees. If the surface cold is underdone, which is possible with that nice HP to our N, then problems may start to occur. But until we get an indication of that I agree Manhattan sees RELATIVELY minor impacts compared to the surrounding areas.(esp N and W obv...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 yes, but I think here in Manhattan, and mind you I am only referring to that location, we need to get down to about 20 tonight in order to remain below 30f during the daylight hours, and that's the temp that matters in the concrete jungle for any real accretion...even central park has a different climo than the rest of the island, they can probably stay zr below 32 ...were you on the island during the 1/18 event? Temps were marginal yet we still had a very healthy glaze on elevated/nonpaved surfaces. I saw ample ZR accretion in Brooklyn with our last storm, as well (again, with marginal temperatures). I think as long as we're below 30-31, given how cold it's been (specifically today, which didn't break freezing), we will see ice accretion, and potentially over a quarter inch (although I think we'll see much more sleet than ZR). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Just realized you're techinically in the N. Westchester forecasting zone as well, also by just a few miles.. Yeah, I am sort of in the middle...I consider 287 the divider between Northern and Southern Westchester, but the climate here can be similar to N. Westchester once you get away from the downtown areas right on the Hudson River and up towards the hills where I live. Both the Juhring Estate Nature Preserve and Taxter Ridge have some pretty significant elevations which creates a very different climate from NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParsippanyWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 However you slice it, if this verifies it will not be pretty. Out of all the storms we've had this winter, this one could be the most destructive one of all. Notice no mention of plain rain in their forecast. ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * PRECIPITATION TYPES: SNOW LATE TONIGHT WILL MIX WITH SOME SLEET ON TUESDAY DAY, A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE POSSIBLY CHANGING BACK TO SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * ACCUMULATIONS: CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO ACCUMULATION AS THEY ARE PRECIPITATION TYPE DEPENDENT. BEST ESTIMATE IS 4 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SUSSEX COUNTY NEW JERSEY AND THE POCONOS. IN ADDITION ABOUT ONE QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF ICE MIGHT ALSO OCCUR, GREATEST IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY. * TIMING: THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES BACK IN OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS: TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT IN THE REGION FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SNOW AND THEN ICE. ICE WILL ACCUMULATE ON TREE LIMBS AND UTILITY WIRES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. THE WEDNESDAY COMMUTE WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm not sure why they are mentioning snow tomorrow night when most models show a transition to sleet or frz rain by that point. I also hate in the discussion mentioning a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain. I take that to mean you could have all 3 at the same time. Point and click for Manhattan, very bullish on accumulations... http://forecast.weat...198&lon=-73.993 Tonight...Cloudy. Snow likely after midnight. Snow accumulation around an inch. Lows in the lower 20s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent. Tuesday...Snow and sleet in the morning...then freezing rain... Sleet and snow in the afternoon. Additional snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Near steady temperature in the upper 20s. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. Tuesday Night...Freezing rain...snow and sleet likely in the evening...then snow...sleet with a chance of freezing rain after midnight. Total snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches. Near steady temperature in the upper 20s. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. Wednesday...Freezing rain...sleet and rain in the morning...then rain likely in the afternoon. Little or no additional sleet accumulation. Highs in the mid 30s. East winds 10 to 15 mph... Becoming northeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Wednesday Night...Mostly cloudy. Snow...freezing rain and rain likely in the evening...then a chance of light snow after midnight. Little or no snow accumulation. Lows in the mid 20s. Northwest winds around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 You might do a little better as it's mostly a latitude gradient, elevation and distance from the water won't be as important here. I think we'll all see 3-5" of snow tonight with a changeover to freezing rain in the morning, wouldn't be surprised if schools are closed or delayed with the road conditions' deterioration in the overnight hours. This will be an event where the NYC 5 Boroughs probably see minimal effects compared to more suburban areas, not to say Manhattan is out of the water completely but this screams of a "north and west" storm. We have nearly the perfect set-up for serious icing with a cold banana high ushering in fresh cold air on NE winds while SW flow takes over at the mid and upper levels; this is especially true tomorrow morning when there should be several hours of light precipitation, which allows the freezing rain to accrue better. The real question is about the 2nd wave...I'm thinking it's a quick start as snow then over to sleet, maybe ZR holds on for Northern Westchester while Southern Westchester sees a couple hours of plain rain. There's clearly a difference among the models in terms of how much CAA occurs after the first wave and how fast the surface freezing contour advances north due to the development of the secondary low in different places. Needless to say, Tuesday and Wednesday morning commutes are going to be messy, perhaps devastating. I bet schools are closed tomorrow with 2-hr delays in S Westchester on Wednesday and closings for the northern part of the County where ZR is the predominate p-type. I think you might even be a little conservative with you're call. Not saying I think we should take only the 18z GFS solution, but it looks like we could add 2-4in with the second wave before it goes to ice. Either way its definitely more of a nowcasting event since these events are notoriously poorly modeled (both with regard to surface and mid-level warming) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The way the models are looking, plus the fact that they usually underestimate the cold-air damming....Yep, I'm a little concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 ...were you on the island during the 1/18 event? Temps were marginal yet we still had a very healthy glaze on elevated/nonpaved surfaces. I saw ample ZR accretion in Brooklyn with our last storm, as well (again, with marginal temperatures). I think as long as we're below 30-31, given how cold it's been (specifically today, which didn't break freezing), we will see ice accretion, and potentially over a quarter inch (although I think we'll see much more sleet than ZR). Please realize that when you say that around here, it means Nassau-Suffolk counties.,..and not Manhattan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParsippanyWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Correct me if I am wrong, But even though manhattan looks to not be able to get hit TOO bad from the ice due to location/urban warming, North/Central NJ still looks to be hit bad by the ice, yes? According to Mount Holly & Upton................yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I think you might even be a little conservative with you're call. Not saying I think we should take only the 18z GFS solution, but it looks like we could add 2-4in with the second wave before it goes to ice. Either way its definitely more of a nowcasting event since these events are notoriously poorly modeled (both with regard to surface and mid-level warming) I might be, but I tend to think that mid level WAA is generally undermodeled in SW flow events whereas the surface tends to stay colder than expected. I've had a lot of experience with these SW flow events living in Central NY during the 07-08 Winter and Middlebury, VT during the 08-09 Winter. We'll see though, you have a good point that there is some agreement among models with regards to a new surge of CAA following the initial overrunning wave. It's just a very, very close call. I still wouldn't expect more than 1-3" in Westchester with the main part of the storm, however, thinking tonight is the best chance for good snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 ...were you on the island during the 1/18 event? Temps were marginal yet we still had a very healthy glaze on elevated/nonpaved surfaces. I saw ample ZR accretion in Brooklyn with our last storm, as well (again, with marginal temperatures). I think as long as we're below 30-31, given how cold it's been (specifically today, which didn't break freezing), we will see ice accretion, and potentially over a quarter inch (although I think we'll see much more sleet than ZR). yeah, I was here, actually off to work at 6:30am, and as soon as the temp hit 31 the melting was well underway, however, your point about how cold it has been is not exactly correct, as, with the exception of today, temps have been seasonable since our last snowstorm that was a very interesting morning, as I watched from the 29th floor as 3-4 foot long (and larger) sheets of ice slipped off buildings in midtown at around 9:30 am oh yes, and as another poster pointed out, I am only referring Manhattan, your climo is quite different, certainly with regard to marginal temp ice accretion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Not sure how OKX figures there will be snow accumulations on Tue night in Manhattan. I'd expect sleet when the 2nd batch of precip arrives - too much of a warm layer aloft. Point and click for Manhattan, very bullish on accumulations... http://forecast.weat...198&lon=-73.993 Tonight...Cloudy. Snow likely after midnight. Snow accumulation around an inch. Lows in the lower 20s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent. Tuesday...Snow and sleet in the morning...then freezing rain... Sleet and snow in the afternoon. Additional snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Near steady temperature in the upper 20s. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. Tuesday Night...Freezing rain...snow and sleet likely in the evening...then snow...sleet with a chance of freezing rain after midnight. Total snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches. Near steady temperature in the upper 20s. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. Wednesday...Freezing rain...sleet and rain in the morning...then rain likely in the afternoon. Little or no additional sleet accumulation. Highs in the mid 30s. East winds 10 to 15 mph... Becoming northeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Wednesday Night...Mostly cloudy. Snow...freezing rain and rain likely in the evening...then a chance of light snow after midnight. Little or no snow accumulation. Lows in the mid 20s. Northwest winds around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 No, the first batch is late tonight into Tue afternoon. 2nd batch late Tue night into Wed afternoon. Tuesday night is the first batch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sterno2510 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I don't post much on here - much more of a reader... BUT - I was just curious if anyone has ever seen Upton split a county in a forecast like they have done to essex county in NJ. Western Essex county is now in a Winter Storm Warning and Eastern Essex county is in a Winter Storm Watch. I think it is clear to me that they have no confidence in their forecast as the models still seem to be all over the place. Any thoughts on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I don't post much on here - much more of a reader... BUT - I was just curious if anyone has ever seen Upton split a county in a forecast like they have done to essex county in NJ. Western Essex county is now in a Winter Storm Warning and Eastern Essex county is in a Winter Storm Watch. I think it is clear to me that they have no confidence in their forecast as the models still seem to be all over the place. Any thoughts on this? Suffolk County on Long Island is very often split. Many times a storm lingers out east and they continue or have warnings when western suffolk does not. Also, many times western suffolk has a warning, while more rain is forecasted for eastern suffolk so they have an advisory... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 When can we expect radars to be lighting up and the first flakes flying in the 5 boros/Western LI from the first wave? Also, is this a eastern LI vs Western LI thing where one area is more frozen than the other or north shore vs south shore? PLENTY of posts stating start times. Sometime after 4 am. There will likely be no split for the Island. IF there were, it would likely be a N/S split but again, HIGHLY unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Expect mainly a north-south gradient in snow/sleet vs. frz rain/rain, except out by the Twin Forks which should change to rain more quickly than areas further west. When can we expect radars to be lighting up and the first flakes flying in the 5 boros/Western LI from the first wave? Also, is this a eastern LI vs Western LI thing where one area is more frozen than the other or north shore vs south shore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 They went with warnings for Western Union and Western Essex..basically west of the GSP. Interesting - first time I recall them splitting Union/Essex counties into east/west. Wonder if that's an acknowledgment of a stronger coastal, leading to a more typical SSW to NNE dividing line between colder and warmer air, as opposed to the more north/south, latitude-driven line from the overrunning part of the storm. If that's the case, though, it would seem odd to have Middlesex County in a WSWarning, but not eastern Union/Essex, Hudson and the 5 boroughs of NYC to our NE (apart from the fact that we're talking Philly vs. NYC offices). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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