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NYC CWA Feb 1-2 Storm Discussion


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Strong sfc high pressure in the classic "banana" shape from the Plains to SE Canada has me worried that we could be looking at a prolonged, potentially damaging ice storm for parts of the area. The synoptics are not favorable for snow along the I-95 corridor, but with winds NELY at the sfc via HP, and those winds traversing a cold, 1-3ft snowpack across New England and NJ, will make it extremely difficult to break 32F virtually everywhere in the tristate through Wednesday afternoon (save for maybe the immediate coast line). Tuesday looks to feature some front-running light accumulating snow/sleet, but the bulk of the precipitation from the event could fall as freezing rain --> the dangerous part. The last thing we need is a crippling ice storm, and to be honest, some of the skew-T's I've seen look pretty scary. 850's well into the +3 to +5c range but surface temps in the mid-upper 20s on a NE flow.

There's been a definite correction NW in storm track over the past few days, but there's also been a correction in the coverage and intensity of surface high pressure across sern Canada, now depicted to be around 1030-35mb. If that's the case, I'm telling you right now, a very small percentage of this storm will be rain, even for NYC.

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total precip amounts will range from 1.00 to 2.00 inches for a large area, with some areas potentially receiving an ice accretion of one inch. let's hope that the 00z models give us a bit more clarity, even though the trends are becoming more apparent...

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rest of NJ also

402 WWUS41 KPHI 310135 WSWPHI URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 835 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2011 ...A LARGE WINTER STORM IS FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST USA... SNOW TUESDAY MORNING WILL TURN TO RAIN SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE SOMETIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN RESUME AS HEAVY RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE WEDNESDAY. DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ013-014-016>020-026-027-PAZ067-070-071-310945- /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0004.110201T0400Z-110202T1600Z/ NEW CASTLE-CECIL-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM- GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN- SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CHESTER-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...FREEHOLD... SANDY HOOK...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL... MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...LONG BEACH ISLAND... WHARTON STATE FOREST...WEST CHESTER...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA 835 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. * GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE: EXTREME NORTHEAST MARYLAND...SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EAST COASTAL NEW JERSEY. * PRECIPITATION TYPE: SNOW TUESDAY MORNING CHANGES TO SLEET...RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN TO PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS: 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET... THEN POSSIBLY A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF GLAZE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. * TIMING: SNOW BEGINS BETWEEN 9 PM MONDAY AND 2 AM TUESDAY. MIXED WINTRY ELEMENTS DEVELOP BETWEEN 10 AM AND 4 PM TUESDAY. * IMPACTS: THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE IS LIKELY TO BE HAZARDOUS. ALL UNTREATED PAVEMENTS SHOULD BE SNOW COVERED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S. THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE SHOULD BE ADVERSELY IMPACTED WITH EITHER PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN OR HEAVY FREEZING RAIN. * CONFIDENCE; ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SNOW EARLY TUESDAY THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON AMOUNTS REACHING 3 OR 4 INCHES IS BELOW AVERAGE. CONFIDENCE ON SOME GLAZING LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY IS ABOVE AVERAGE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

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total precip amounts will range from 1.00 to 2.00 inches for a large area, with some areas potentially receiving an ice accretion of one inch. let's hope that the 00z models give us a bit more clarity, even though the trends are becoming more apparent...

do you see it getting to a point with the tredns of more snow or just more frozen precip ex. freezing rain, sleet and other icey projectiles falling from the sky?

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Looks like the trend is our friend, definitely not a blizzard with 12 inches plus for NYC/LI...No way...but up to 6 inches followed by extensive frozen precip with minimal plain rain, yes, more and more likely.

Very exciting, we keep our snowpack encapsulated ready for next weekend's blast.

Exciting but realistically dangerous.

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do you see it getting to a point with the tredns of more snow or just more frozen precip ex. freezing rain, sleet and other icey projectiles falling from the sky?

depends on the area, but most people in and around NYC will likely go over to at least sleet and freezing rain. with the current low track, there would be too much warming aloft to allow for it to stay all/mostly snow.

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Strong sfc high pressure in the classic "banana" shape from the Plains to SE Canada has me worried that we could be looking at a prolonged, potentially damaging ice storm for parts of the area. The synoptics are not favorable for snow along the I-95 corridor, but with winds NELY at the sfc via HP, and those winds traversing a cold, 1-3ft snowpack across New England and NJ, will make it extremely difficult to break 32F virtually everywhere in the tristate through Wednesday afternoon (save for maybe the immediate coast line). Tuesday looks to feature some front-running light accumulating snow/sleet, but the bulk of the precipitation from the event could fall as freezing rain --> the dangerous part. The last thing we need is a crippling ice storm, and to be honest, some of the skew-T's I've seen look pretty scary. 850's well into the +3 to +5c range but surface temps in the mid-upper 20s on a NE flow.

There's been a definite correction NW in storm track over the past few days, but there's also been a correction in the coverage and intensity of surface high pressure across sern Canada, now depicted to be around 1030-35mb. If that's the case, I'm telling you right now, a very small percentage of this storm will be rain, even for NYC.

good points storm...

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I'd just like to know what the range for snow is for NYC/LI...I figure 6 is max.....can it be more let's say 6-8?

Also what's the least 1-3?

So far out of the most recent guidance, the 18z NAM run was the coldest and had upto 8 inches for NYC. Most other guidance is less than 6 and closer to 2 - 4 before mixing and changeover to rain. Lets see what the 00z nam has to offer. I hadnt looked at the SREF yet but judging by eathlites post it seems to be more of a frz rain threat.

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Honestly I hope ice storm warnings fly where warranted and not just winter storm blanket warnings

May see Winter Storm Warnings/Winter Weather Advisories for Tuesday, followed by either Winter Storm or Ice Storm Watches for Wednesday...not sure how the NWS will handle it though.

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