ace0927 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 with a low passing to the west, i cant comprehend how the MM5 shows what it shows. Cold surface temperatures are one thing, but the MM5 shows what looks like snow to me, and a decent amount of it. the low isnt passing to the west...its transferring. 57 hrs 60 hrs DAMN IT- if only that 1045mb HP was in southern Canada instead of the Eastern Colorado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 the low isnt passing to the west...its transferring. 57 hrs 60 hrs The MM5 shows a full transfer below 40N thus allowing NNJ/NENJ/NEPA/NYC and surrounding areas to stay all or mostly frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/mm5rt_data/2011013112/images_d2/700fr.54.0000.gif Looks nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 A big thing, if not THE driving thing for NYC is how quickly the initial dies out and transfers to the coast. ANY earlier then what is being progged (or exactly what the MM5 solution is) would portray a more wintry situation for the area. If the initial hangs on longer then that gives the tri-state more time to experience a warm punch. IF the coastal gets the energy earlier then there IS cold air for it to tap into or at least hold onto, which is what the MM5 wants to do. The HPC said the NAM is likely wrong with the initial SLP being so strong right? I would think this is a good thing for us because a weaker initial low means it can die off/transfer quicker and there is more potential energy for a coastal low. Also, another thing to keep in mind is that the coastal lows we have had this year have developed quicker and at least 2-4 mb stronger then what guidance has had them developing at at any given time. Not that this will create huge forecast differences between a 1002 coastal and a potentially sub 1000mb coastal but it could have some small implications, and in a forecast uncertainty like this where 5-10 miles and 1-2 degrees could be the difference..... well you get where i am going. Just my 2cents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Based on the soundings I think both the GFS and NAM suggest some moderate icing potential for NYC with the first batch of precipitation tomorrow, after snow to start. The surface is very cold but shallow. The mid-levels actually look to cool just enough before the 2nd batch arrives late Tue night for a possible brief change back to snow, especially just north of the City. But by then surface temps look to have warmed sufficiently to mitigate the threat of freezing rain. Thereafter both ncep models suggest rain or barely freezing rain under near the end of the event. The model differences appear most pronounced for Wednesday, especially north of the City. The GFS really torches the mid-levels right through the mid-hudson valley and pushes the surface slightly above freezing up past HPN. Up toward KSWF would be mostly snow/sleet (NAM) or freezing rain (GFS), the lower hudson valley would be sleet/freezing rain (NAM) or rain (GFS), and the City would be freezing rain (NAM) or rain (GFS). I am eager to see how temperatures for this 2nd round trend in the modeling today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 A big thing, if not THE driving thing for NYC is how quickly the initial dies out and transfers to the coast. ANY earlier then what is being progged (or exactly what the MM5 solution is) would portray a more wintry situation for the area. If the initial hangs on longer then that gives the tri-state more time to experience a warm punch. IF the coastal gets the energy earlier then there IS cold air for it to tap into or at least hold onto, which is what the MM5 wants to do. The HPC said the NAM is likely wrong with the initial SLP being so strong right? I would think this is a good thing for us because a weaker initial low means it can die off/transfer quicker and there is more potential energy for a coastal low. Also, another thing to keep in mind is that the coastal lows we have had this year have developed quicker and at least 2-4 mb stronger then what guidance has had them developing at at any given time. Not that this will create huge forecast differences between a 1002 coastal and a potentially sub 1000mb coastal but it could have some small implications, and in a forecast uncertainty like this where 5-10 miles and 1-2 degrees could be the difference..... well you get where i am going. Just my 2cents This makes sense to me, even with the NAM's stronger solution it was still colder which would give this MM5 more traction. Simply because a weaker solution would end up being a colder solution and as it is the NAM is REALLY close. Needless to say, we'll just have to keep monitoring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 A big thing, if not THE driving thing for NYC is how quickly the initial dies out and transfers to the coast. ANY earlier then what is being progged (or exactly what the MM5 solution is) would portray a more wintry situation for the area. If the initial hangs on longer then that gives the tri-state more time to experience a warm punch. IF the coastal gets the energy earlier then there IS cold air for it to tap into or at least hold onto, which is what the MM5 wants to do. The HPC said the NAM is likely wrong with the initial SLP being so strong right? I would think this is a good thing for us because a weaker initial low means it can die off/transfer quicker and there is more potential energy for a coastal low. Also, another thing to keep in mind is that the coastal lows we have had this year have developed quicker and at least 2-4 mb stronger then what guidance has had them developing at at any given time. Not that this will create huge forecast differences between a 1002 coastal and a potentially sub 1000mb coastal but it could have some small implications, and in a forecast uncertainty like this where 5-10 miles and 1-2 degrees could be the difference..... well you get where i am going. Just my 2cents It seems like at least 7 times out of 10, primary mid-level lows move further north than expectation. If I were a gambler I would bet on slightly less snow to the north (with stronger southerly mid-level push) and slightly more sleet and ice to the south (with northerly surface component holding on). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It seems like at least 7 times out of 10, primary mid-level lows move further north than expectation. If I were a gambler I would bet on slightly less snow to the north (with stronger southerly mid-level push) and slightly more sleet and ice to the south (with northerly surface component holding on). Exactly, we've played this game many times before with primary lows driving to our west and waiting for them to transfer, only to find out that by the time it happened it was too late. Now who's to tell what this one will do, we dont know if it will be one of the 7 out of 10 or one of the few 3 out of 10 yet. My only point is that IF it happens a bit earlier then it would obv. be a more wintry solution. A bit later and its definitely going to be wet. (NYC area this is). A key will be watching that HP to the north and find out exactly how strong it is in regards to what is being modeled. If it winds up being stronger then modeled then the low will want to take the path of lesser resistance and move more quickly to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 oooh that 1/26 storm. It was BELOW zero in NYC that AM. I had a flight to Phoenix to visit a buddy at ASU.....I just got out before the storm...9 hours later is was in the 50's in NYC.....that was one crazy winter. 1/7/94 is the current #2 analog over the east for the next 36hrs. 2/9/94 is the #1. 1/26/94 is the #3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The models messed up in terms of timing and precipitation totals and most missed the first part of the storm, however they did a good job with precip type/track etc. How can anyone believe the models this season with last weeks clusterfook , i guess their is redemption but come on you have to watch the radar its kind of fun not knowing whats going to unfold see ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 as long as the low goes south of NYC, they will stay all or mostly frozen with an arctic high just north in southern canada. this goes for the immediate n/w burbs of Philly/TTN/EWR/etcas well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Although the MM5 would be great, it's likely prudent to not blend it into any forecast at the moment. It tends to have a bit of a cold and progressive bias at this range, and likes to follow alongside the NAM (which has the same issues). We've seen this play before. Strong primary surface lows are not easy to kill off without blocking or strong confluence. The NAM is very often too cold in these synoptic setups while the GFS may run a tick too warm. I suspect that a SREF/ECMWF blend of thermal profiles and QPF is the best way to go at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 i guess no one wants to post the SREF's because they are warm Yeah, that's usually the way it goes. I would post them if I wasn't on my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 One of the best analogs in terms of the upper level pattern (strong southern stream system moving ENE into well-defined confluence zone over Quebec, while energy remains behind in the SW US) is 1/19/1987. http://www.eas.slu.e...=12&map=4panelA http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1987/us0119.php The surface pattern (primary tracking NE from lower MS Valley to Ohio, with redevelopment off southern NJ) is also similar, though the high over Ontario/Quebec was significantly weaker (only about 1020 mb). It also produced significant snow just north of Tulsa, in Kansas City and St. Louis, and in the southern suburbs of Chicago. The boundary between significant snow vs. ZR/IP ran from NE PA/far NW NJ eastward into southern RI and Cape Cod. Because the preceding cold air mass wasn't very deep, there was only a thin strip of ZR and very little IP. It was also followed 2-3 days later by a KU storm on 1/22/87. 1/7/94 is the current #2 analog over the east for the next 36hrs. 2/9/94 is the #1. 1/26/94 is the #3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Srefs have NYC surface temp below 32 thru hour 45. .75"-1" of precip falls thru then for NYC on west. At 48, the surface warms to just above 32 for NYC and thru 48, 1"-1.25" of precip has fallen. Here is all the precip that falls thru hour 45, while NYC is in the 20's: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Srefs have NYC surface temp below 32 thru hour 45. .75"-1" of precip falls thru then for NYC on west. At 48, the surface warms to just above 32 for NYC and thru 48, 1"-1.25" of precip has fallen. Here is all the precip that falls thru hour 48, while NYC is in the 20's: keep in mind the SREF mean has a lot of RSM members in it that are low resolution models and are stubborn on picking up on low level cold air compared to the ARW/ETA/NMM members. So the surface cold would likely hold on longer than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 well, thru 18 hrs the 18Z would indicate that, at least for my area, we would see no snow at all. It is definitely warmer in the mid levels. and by 27hrs is basically all rain. cool a bit at 30 but the layer of cold air is shallow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 SREF's say time to put down the bags of salt and start stacking sand bags. lol, Pompton Plains is going to get a major icestorm. No flooding for you, my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 New NAM pushed the best precip with the first batch well north. So far this year, the models have insisted on knocking down QPF amounts the last few runs before an event every single time. Best verifcation has been the run 24hrs prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Turkey Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Does that moisture off the NC coast have anything to do with this system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Every single time a model is warm or not the best solution someone has some stupid excuse for it. Its getting ridiculous now. What I said is correct though, Just look at how much QPF has dropped since the runs this morning. Terrible continuity. I still think I'm in for quite a storm, NYC not so much. We shall see though still early in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 What I said is correct though, Just look at how much QPF has dropped since the runs this morning. Terrible continuity. I still think I'm in for quite a storm, NYC not so much. We shall see though still early in the run. and i thought he was getting on the other people who always find a reason why the warm/no snow/less than ideal models are wrong....my bad anyway- the 18Z nam isnt a good solution for anyone wanting frozen precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 and i thought he was getting on the other people who always find a reason why the warm/no snow/less than ideal models are wrong....my bad anyway- the 18Z nam isnt a good solution for anyone wanting frozen precip It has NYC well below freezing thru hour 42: What are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It has NYC well below freezing thru hour What are you talking about? stop looking at the ridiculous maps... here- http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false always every level is over 0C, there is NO WAY that is anything but RAIN. If you are talking westchester and rockland then YES its frozen...but im looking at it from my perspective (and i apologize for not clarifying that in my post) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NYC 32 degree line is at 32 at hour 45: Good amount of precip has fallen thru then: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 stop looking at the ridiculous maps... here- http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false always every level is over 0C, there is NO WAY that is anything but RAIN. If you are talking westchester and rockland then YES its frozen...but im looking at it from my perspective (and i apologize for not clarifying that in my post) LOL Your marker is centered about 50 miles south of LI in the Atlantic ocean. Of course they're getting rain there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 318 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011 ...WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY TO THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO JUMP TO THE WATERS OFF NEW JERSEY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE RACING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF OUR REGION FROM TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-061-062-011000- /O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0004.110201T0800Z-110202T2200Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0005.110201T0500Z-110202T2300Z/ SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN... JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON 318 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * PRECIPITATION TYPES: SNOW LATE TONIGHT WILL MIX WITH SOME SLEET ON TUESDAY DAY, A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE POSSIBLY CHANGING BACK TO SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * ACCUMULATIONS: CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO ACCUMULATION AS THEY ARE PRECIPITATION TYPE DEPENDENT. BEST ESTIMATE IS 4 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SUSSEX COUNTY NEW JERSEY AND THE POCONOS. IN ADDITION ABOUT ONE QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF ICE MIGHT ALSO OCCUR, GREATEST IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY. * TIMING: THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES BACK IN OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS: TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT IN THE REGION FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SNOW AND THEN ICE. ICE WILL ACCUMULATE ON TREE LIMBS AND UTILITY WIRES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. THE WEDNESDAY COMMUTE WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 stop looking at the ridiculous maps... here- always every level is over 0C, there is NO WAY that is anything but RAIN. If you are talking westchester and rockland then YES its frozen...but im looking at it from my perspective (and i apologize for not clarifying that in my post) I agree with your thoughts especially regarding the shallow cold air and the deep warm layer, but your marker is centered over Buoy 5545. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 LOL Your marker is centered about 50 miles south of LI in the Atlantic ocean. Of course they're getting rain there they are rain in southern westchester 3 hrs later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Forecast snow totals for part 1 (through 6z Wed): SWF: 4-7" HPN: 3-5" TEB: 2-4" EWR: 1-2" NYC: 1-3" LGA: 1-3" JFK: 0-1" ISP: 1-2" Port Jefferson, NY: 2-3" FOK: 1-2" BDR: 3-5" DXR: 5-7" HVN: 3-5" MMK: 5-8" GON: 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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