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NYC CWA Feb 1-2 Storm Discussion


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From the Philly thread

To me, the models are moving things along way to quick with the warm up. I'll lean toward the NAM for now. To me there is such strong cold source over New England that will no doubt be a battle get this cold air scoured out.. Should be really interesting on verifying the observations against the models tomorrow..

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EUro coming in like gfs a bit..

42, 0 line (surface) south of philly, very light precip... then 48, it jumps to about central berks/bucks up to NYC with heavier precip.. LV up to about scranton getting ice . 850's are on the pa/ny line

.25-.5"

54, it jumps to 30miles north of NYC, most of precip is out of area for PA, nj and NYC still some rain..

Seems like the NAM is on it's own with the colder solution,

total qpf.. PA .75-1", NE PA /poconos to NYC to albany . LI 1"-1.25, eastern CT, southern Mass, and RI to the cape 1.25" +

NAM has the latest MM5 on its side for sure, in fact on the MM5 one in NENJ/NYC and NNJ could hope for a mostly wet snow/sleet solution as opposed to seeing any rain lol.

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http://cheget.msrc.s...slp.51.0000.gif

http://cheget.msrc.s...zlv.51.0000.gif

http://cheget.msrc.s...50t.51.0000.gif

http://cheget.msrc.s...50t.54.0000.gif

To me, for NYC/NE Nj that looks like sleet during the heaviest precip. Perhaps even a heavy wet snow as 850's are still below 0 in NYC. And then i would think if 850's warmed above 0 but surface and 925mb were below that the layer of cold air might be enough to get sleet as opposed to frza.

EDIT: Granted this is the mm5 outside of its golden range and it generally is too SE with its solutions, but it seems to have a decent grasp on not pushing out colder air then it should.

Snow might not be wet if surface temps are well below freezing. It's possible to go from a relatively dry snow to freezing rain and back again.

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I'd lean towards the higher-res models in a set-up like this; they can usually detect the staying power of the low level cold a bit better than globals. I'm willing to bet the NAM is closer to reality on surface temps versus the Euro ro GFS. With a strong sfc high up north and deep snowpack in place, it's going to be like pulling teeth to get that freezing line nwd.

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2/14/07 is being brought up over and over again... I'll take it for about 2 feet fell in KLEB... but it's also important for another reason.... The GFS usually doesn't do a very good job at handling lower level air holding on... It took until about 2 model runs before the storm before the models realized "wait that cold air ain't gonna nowhere". Even then, the GFS hadn't a clue. Though it's out of its "good range", check out the Suny mm5 frozen precip graphics. It has the right idea.

call me crazy but the entire set up is different than 2/2007...this is closer to the ice storms of the 1994 winter

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I'd lean towards the higher-res models in a set-up like this; they can usually detect the staying power of the low level cold a bit better than globals. I'm willing to bet the NAM is closer to reality on surface temps versus the Euro ro GFS. With a strong sfc high up north and deep snowpack in place, it's going to be like pulling teeth to get that freezing line nwd.

I agree with you. Euro does seem to be on the warmer side of things. But how cold it's been lately and the snowpack all around, i'd be surprised to see the low level warm intrusion as fast as the euro shows it.

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I'd lean towards the higher-res models in a set-up like this; they can usually detect the staying power of the low level cold a bit better than globals. I'm willing to bet the NAM is closer to reality on surface temps versus the Euro ro GFS. With a strong sfc high up north and deep snowpack in place, it's going to be like pulling teeth to get that freezing line nwd.

Exactly, what is one of the first things we look for when we first start seeing a potential setup for a storm? We look to see if there is a cold air source from the north (As many are looking for with the potential for this upcoming weekend). Well ya know what? We have one in almost prime position, and a pretty decently strong one at that. Now I'm not pulling a roger smith here or anything and saying 20-30" of snow like he is for NYC. I am just pointing out that if surface highs are so important that they are one of the first things we would like to see, then maybe just maybe we are underestimating the importance of actually HAVING one there NOW.

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NAM has the latest MM5 on its side for sure, in fact on the MM5 one in NENJ/NYC and NNJ could hope for a mostly wet snow/sleet solution as opposed to seeing any rain lol.

If the NAM is right, much of NNJ should be in the 10s and 20s throughout almost all of this event. You wouldn't get good ratios because of warm mid-levels, but it wouldn't be a wet, clingy snow like last Wed.

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If the NAM is right, much of NNJ should be in the 10s and 20s throughout almost all of this event. You wouldn't get good ratios because of warm mid-levels, but it wouldn't be a wet, clingy snow like last Wed.

Probably more of that real fine almost rainy like looking snow because of very poor snow growth then i would assume?

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Agree with this, in fact MM5 looks even a little colder

How could i forget my friends out on LI lol? The MM5 never pushes the 850 line or sfc line anywhere near LI, especially the north shore.

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NAM has the latest MM5 on its side for sure, in fact on the MM5 one in NENJ/NYC and NNJ could hope for a mostly wet snow/sleet solution as opposed to seeing any rain lol.

Also take a look at the 48 hour ARW on the page before this...has the 850 0C below even all of LI. I don't know however how accurate this model is.

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which of the 94 events was the biggest ice storm? So many events from 94 are showing up in the analogs today but I'm not sure which one is the right one to focus on.

Something to keep an eye on for the event later in the week.....PDII keeps poking its eye in and out for the 120hr time frame. Also the event just prior to 96 has been showing alot as well. Will be interesting to see what happens once the current storm is resolved.

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1/3 and 1/7, 1/26 was more rain, ice to snow I believe and 2/8 and 2/11 were the 2 big primarily snow events

which of the 94 events was the biggest ice storm? So many events from 94 are showing up in the analogs today but I'm not sure which one is the right one to focus on.

Something to keep an eye on for the event later in the week.....PDII keeps poking its eye in and out for the 120hr time frame. Also the event just prior to 96 has been showing alot as well. Will be interesting to see what happens once the current storm is resolved.

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Probably more of that real fine almost rainy like looking snow because of very poor snow growth then i would assume?

Yeah, that's be my guess. But when temps aloft approach freezing, you could also get large, clumping aggregates that don't cling to anything because the surface is cold.

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which of the 94 events was the biggest ice storm? So many events from 94 are showing up in the analogs today but I'm not sure which one is the right one to focus on.

Something to keep an eye on for the event later in the week.....PDII keeps poking its eye in and out for the 120hr time frame. Also the event just prior to 96 has been showing alot as well. Will be interesting to see what happens once the current storm is resolved.

january 7-8 1994 was a pretty vicious one.

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1/3 and 1/7, 1/26 was more rain, ice to snow I believe and 2/8 and 2/11 were the 2 big primarily snow events

oooh that 1/26 storm. It was BELOW zero in NYC that AM. I had a flight to Phoenix to visit a buddy at ASU.....I just got out before the storm...9 hours later is was in the 50's in NYC.....that was one crazy winter.

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with a low passing to the west, i cant comprehend how the MM5 shows what it shows. Cold surface temperatures are one thing, but the MM5 shows what looks like snow to me, and a decent amount of it.

Verbatim, NYC gets about 6-9" of snow in 6 hours before a quick burst of sleet at the end. This is after 2-3" of snow followed by sleet/zr with the first batch

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