IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 They didn't say they were throwing out the NAM, just that its solution was suspect. Seems to be happening alot lately. I personally think they are just trying to cover themselves considering how poorly the run to run continuity has been so close to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 They didn't say they were throwing out the NAM, just that its solution was suspect. Seems to be happening alot lately. I personally think they are just trying to cover themselves considering how poorly the run to run continuity has been so close to the event. If there's missing data from san diego wouldn't that effect more than just the nam? I mean what's happening there now has a lot to do with what happens downstream no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 They didn't say they were throwing out the NAM, just that its solution was suspect. Seems to be happening alot lately. I personally think they are just trying to cover themselves considering how poorly the run to run continuity has been so close to the event. Missing upper air data is a big deal since that one station is representing the state of the upper atmosphere for a large area. The west coast balloons are especially important given that they are at the southwestern boundary of the network. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 If there's missing data from san diego wouldn't that effect more than just the nam? I mean what's happening there now has a lot to do with what happens downstream no? Could be a timing thing where the NAM kicked off before ingesting the data. Perhaps San Diego was just a little late today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 They didn't say they were throwing out the NAM, just that its solution was suspect. Seems to be happening alot lately. I personally think they are just trying to cover themselves considering how poorly the run to run continuity has been so close to the event. Correct, they're just questioning the slower/stronger trend with regards to system entering the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 If I'm wrong I'll be the first to admit it but I feel pretty confident in saying that someone within a 20 mile drive of the city will recieve > 12" of snow when all is said and done. Maybe even > 18" if the 12z NAM is the more correct solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Honestly I see the sleet scenario or just rain...I think if it warms enough to go over to ZR we don't have a good enough setup to keep it ZR for that long....the 2nd part of this storm will probably be mostly sleet or rain. VD 2007 had only a very very narrow stripe of significant freezing rain that fell from just north of Belmar back southwest into Burlington county...every where else was sleet, southeast of there turned to rain. I never got above 28 degrees in Holmdel during that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 If I'm wrong I'll be the first to admit it but I feel pretty confident in saying that someone within a 20 mile drive of the city will recieve > 12" of snow when all is said and done. Maybe even > 18" if the 12z NAM is the more correct solution. It would not take much of a shift SE for the city locals to see 18 inches of snow west of NYC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Uncertainty should be stressed at this point....because as far as I can tell, thats where we continue to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 If I'm wrong I'll be the first to admit it but I feel pretty confident in saying that someone within a 20 mile drive of the city will recieve > 12" of snow when all is said and done. Maybe even > 18" if the 12z NAM is the more correct solution. If the 12z NAM is correct then we stay all snow up here with >18" of snow.. GFS gives us 10-12" so a blend of the 2 might be in order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 VD 2007 had only a very very narrow stripe of significant freezing rain that fell from just north of Belmar back southwest into Burlington county...every where else was sleet, southeast of there turned to rain. I never got above 28 degrees in Holmdel during that storm Indeed, and I strongly agree with Snowgoose. I've maintained we see 3-6" of snow and go to sleet/zr with no rain or only very little, with the caveat that the ice part will likely be mainly sleet. ZR is always overforecasted. I still think this could be the most crippling storm of the season if you discount 12/27... this on top of what's already fallen and how icy it'll be is going to be very very bad for area roads etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I agree, and this may be relatively minor for the city itself from an icing standpoint but plenty of locales within the viewing area are not getting above freezing the entire time and will either have significant snow/sleet or major icing. That should be emphasized. I was very disappointed with the local weathermen on CBS, NBC, and ABC this morning. Not a single met emphasized the very real possibility of a significant icing event for large portions of the forecast area. All you heard was basically "A couple inches of snow, then some sleet, and eventually just plain rain." That might be the forecast for *some* portion of the forecast area, but it ill-prepares anyone west of the Hudson and north of I-78 for the potential (likely?) scenarios involving significant icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Even JFK gets 0.58 QPF of frozen precip with temps in the mid 20's before it warms up to the mid 30'.s god i hope its wrong...very little is snow...no interest in ZR... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Milford Highlander Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Isn't Pompton Plains about a 20 mile drive of the city? Wishful thinking? If I'm wrong I'll be the first to admit it but I feel pretty confident in saying that someone within a 20 mile drive of the city will recieve > 12" of snow when all is said and done. Maybe even > 18" if the 12z NAM is the more correct solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 ARW at 48 hr 850s: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevpage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=01%2F31%2F2011+12UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=850_temp_ht&model=HRW-ARW-EUS&area=EUS&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&areaDesc=Eastern+United+States&fcast=01%2F31%2F2011+12UTC+048HR ARW at 48 hr sim radar" http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevpage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=01%2F31%2F2011+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=sim_radar&model=HRW-ARW-EUS&area=EUS&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&areaDesc=Eastern+United+States&fcast=01%2F31%2F2011+12UTC+048HR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Isn't Pompton Plains about a 20 mile drive of the city? Wishful thinking? It's about a half hour. Regardless were right on 287 which is usually the cutoff with these type of storms between major problems and minor problems. For VD 2007 we stayed below freezing until after the precip had ended. Somone is going to get absolutely smoked in the NYC area and they probably won't be expecting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 ARW at 48 hr 850s: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevpage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=01%2F31%2F2011+12UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=850_temp_ht&model=HRW-ARW-EUS&area=EUS&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&areaDesc=Eastern+United+States&fcast=01%2F31%2F2011+12UTC+048HR ARW at 48 hr sim radar" http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevpage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=01%2F31%2F2011+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=sim_radar&model=HRW-ARW-EUS&area=EUS&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&areaDesc=Eastern+United+States&fcast=01%2F31%2F2011+12UTC+048HR How accurate is this model? That 850 0C line is extremely south of any other guidance I've seen, entirely below Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 How accurate is this model? That 850 0C line is extremely south of any other guidance I've seen, entirely below Long Island. Not sure, the NMM is also very similar to this. They are short range hi-resolution models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It's about a half hour. Regardless were right on 287 which is usually the cutoff with these type of storms between major problems and minor problems. For VD 2007 we stayed below freezing until after the precip had ended. Somone is going to get absolutely smoked in the NYC area and they probably won't be expecting it. Everyone stayed below freezing in the VD 2007 event north of a line from belmar NJ down towards PHL area...In the New Brunswick - Holmdel area, I specifically recall us spending the majority of the event in the low 20s.. perhaps mid-uper 20s in Holmdel. It was all sleet. This storm though features a very strong storm driving up well to our west, further than VD 2007, so we shall see. These events suck to forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Milford Highlander Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I agree with you although Pompton Plains is usually a little too far south and with an elevation of only 200' you have to go further north and west with storms like this. It's about a half hour. Regardless were right on 287 which is usually the cutoff with these type of storms between major problems and minor problems. For VD 2007 we stayed below freezing until after the precip had ended. Somone is going to get absolutely smoked in the NYC area and they probably won't be expecting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I agree with you although Pompton Plains is usually a little too far south and with an elevation of only 200' you have to go further north and west with storms like this. I think your gonna have to go 40+ miles NW to see some good snow out of this. Even up here we run the possibility of some sleet contamination and im >50 miles from the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Something tells me that even though there is a good deal of a mid-level warm push that many more areas then some are expecting are going to see a very watery heavy wet snow/sleet mix that goes back and forth between rain with lulls/pickups in precip intensity. There WILL be freezing rain however i think it will be limited to areas that typically stay much colder, i cant see immediate NYC or its warmer immediate W/S/E boroughs picking up much ice accretion (Westfield/Union/Elizabeth). These areas in my opinion hold onto a heavy sloppy mix until a full transition to rain occurs on Wednesday without too much ice accretion. However, areas further inland (Morristown, Sussex, High Point, Parsippany, West Milford and back into NEPA) THESE are the areas that should be wincing a bit looking at the situation. These are the areas where cold air sticks around much easier then in Elizabeth/Newark and the such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 2/14/07 is being brought up over and over again... I'll take it for about 2 feet fell in KLEB... but it's also important for another reason.... The GFS usually doesn't do a very good job at handling lower level air holding on... It took until about 2 model runs before the storm before the models realized "wait that cold air ain't gonna nowhere". Even then, the GFS hadn't a clue. Though it's out of its "good range", check out the Suny mm5 frozen precip graphics. It has the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 2/14/07 is being brought up over and over again... I'll take it for about 2 feet fell in KLEB... but it's also important for another reason.... The GFS usually doesn't do a very good job at handling lower level air holding on... It took until about 2 model runs before the storm before the models realized "wait that cold air ain't gonna nowhere". Even then, the GFS hadn't a clue. Though it's out of its "good range", check out the Suny mm5 frozen precip graphics. It has the right idea. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Link? http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/html/alt_mm5.cgi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I think that air mass was colder overall. Alot of teens/low to mid 20s in the interior during much of the event. The primarily low didn't get nearly as far north as this one is expected to before the coastal took over. 2/14/07 is being brought up over and over again... I'll take it for about 2 feet fell in KLEB... but it's also important for another reason.... The GFS usually doesn't do a very good job at handling lower level air holding on... It took until about 2 model runs before the storm before the models realized "wait that cold air ain't gonna nowhere". Even then, the GFS hadn't a clue. Though it's out of its "good range", check out the Suny mm5 frozen precip graphics. It has the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 http://cheget.msrc.s...tml/alt_mm5.cgi http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/loop/12km.fzlv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I think that air mass was colder overall. Alot of teens/low to mid 20s in the interior during much of the event. The primarily low didn't get nearly as far north as this one is expected to before the coastal took over. Oh, I'm not saying they are the same. Surely, not. I'm merely recognizing that models tend to overdo lower level warmth, especially when the best you'll probably get is a ENE, not straight E or anywhere close to SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 http://cheget.msrc.s...tml/alt_mm5.cgi http://cheget.msrc.s...slp.51.0000.gif http://cheget.msrc.s...zlv.51.0000.gif http://cheget.msrc.s...50t.51.0000.gif http://cheget.msrc.s...50t.54.0000.gif To me, for NYC/NE Nj that looks like sleet during the heaviest precip. Perhaps even a heavy wet snow as 850's are still below 0 in NYC. And then i would think if 850's warmed above 0 but surface and 925mb were below that the layer of cold air might be enough to get sleet as opposed to frza. EDIT: Granted this is the mm5 outside of its golden range and it generally is too SE with its solutions, but it seems to have a decent grasp on not pushing out colder air then it should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 EUro coming in like gfs a bit.. 42, 0 line (surface) south of philly, very light precip... then 48, it jumps to about central berks/bucks up to NYC with heavier precip.. LV up to about scranton getting ice . 850's are on the pa/ny line .25-.5" 54, it jumps to 30miles north of NYC, most of precip is out of area for PA, nj and NYC still some rain.. Seems like the NAM is on it's own with the colder solution, total qpf.. PA .75-1", NE PA /poconos to NYC to albany . LI 1"-1.25, eastern CT, southern Mass, and RI to the cape 1.25" + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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