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NYC CWA Feb 1-2 Storm Discussion


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His forecast is for over 20 inches of snow for our area. I would love to see that verify . I doubt it will though.

If NYC gets double digits from this...the 2nd event that is, then someone officially sold their soul to the devil...the first event I could envision a miracle 10 inches simply based on how this winter has gone and how these types of events overperform.

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Guest Patrick

Ha... You know something, I agree with you. Very excited to see radar trends tonight.

The other big issue is timing...

OKX believes snow moves in at 8z, give or take an hour. Will be interesting to see precip break out even further & faster ahead of the Low on WAA...

You mentioned this possibility several times regarding SWFE.... what are your thoughts now?

If NYC gets double digits from this...the 2nd event that is, then someone officially sold their soul to the devil...the first event I could envision a miracle 10 inches simply based on how this winter has gone and how these types of events overperform.

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Ha... You know something, I agree with you. Very excited to see radar trends tonight.

The other big issue is timing...

OKX believes snow moves in at 8z, give or take an hour. Will be interesting to see precip break out even further & faster ahead of the Low on WAA...

You mentioned this possibility several times regarding SWFE.... what are your thoughts now?

the 14 Z ruc has snow starting by 08-09Z...it has the snow shield relatively far south as well.

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Guest Patrick

Thanks for sharing. I really appreciate your insight.

Also have to wonder if the precip gap begins to close as we get closer to the event. May very well be one long duration storm....rather than two distinct pieces.

the 14 Z ruc has snow starting by 08-09Z...it has the snow shield relatively far south as well.

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GFS thru hour 33 has NYC surface below zero. Line is on south shore of LI. 850's are cold thru hour 30 and pop just north of the city by hour 33.

.25"-.50" of frozen for 1st event. Probably 80% snow, 20% sleet.

Just saw that...Was going to say, GFS is just a touch colder than NAM at hr. 30

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I think this will be a 2-4" snow/sleet.freezing rain to all rain event...How much all rain is the question?...

I was leaning this way but suspect the rain part is more limited especially in/around i-78 down to inland C-NJ. I think we will have a period of major ZR with tems hovering in the upper 20s before any change to all rain. Looks ugly for the commutes tues and wed.

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of course the GFS is 150 miles WNW of nam within 48 hours.. so much for continuity they are getting farther from that as we get closer

Remember I mentioned the NAM tends to have severe south biases outside 48 hours on SW flow events....I'm not so sure though I can go against it this year given its been good on many storms.

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GFS is about .40" frozen for NYC thru hour 48.

Then hours 48-60, pure rain. Not a lot though. About .50"

Here is the rain part. Hours 48-60:

This is largely because GFS does not pop a secondary south of LI but waits until too late and pops one e of Boston. The GFS is VERY different from the NAM, RGEM, and RUC.

WX/PT

gfs_namer_060_precip_p12.gif

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HPC says there were errors on the Nam

THE NAM HAS TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER AND STRONGER BUT OTHERWISE

SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 06Z GFS...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF

AVERAGES 50-75 NM NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE NAM/GFS. AN UNRESOLVED

CONCERN HOWEVER IS THAT MISSING RAOB DATA FROM SAN DIEGO MAY BE

CONTRIBUTING TO THE NAM'S QUESTIONABLE INITIALIZATION WHICH SHOWS

THE CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AS MUCH AS 50-75 NM EAST OF ITS

APPROXIMATED POSITION ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THUS...THE

NAM'S SLOWER/STRONGER TREND ENTERING THE PLAINS IS QUESTIONED.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html

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