Ababa Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Southern ny biggest snow since last feb....they got 30 inches plus in that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Still trying to figure out where you get this when the surface doesn't go above freezing but for maybe a few minutes here and there. Maybe time to put the wet dreams aside and get on with the more realistic threat here which is a severe snow, sleet, and ice storm. WX/PT Roger Smith camp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I believe so as well. But we also were supposed to get more front end snow and instead it changed to sleet almost immediately If I remember correctly, NYC was supposed to change to rain in the Feb 14,2007 storm. Temps stayed in the low 20's and it never changed to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Roger Smith camp? He's talking about the trends lately....Clearly there has been a colder trend. Being that this event doesn't begin (main event) until tues night. I would certainly (and I am) be concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The RGEM has the snow line about 20 miles north of NYC at 48 hours...given that thing always seems warm, thats scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The RGEM has the snow line about 20 miles north of NYC at 48 hours...given that thing always seems warm, thats scary. the NAM has the snow line over Yonkers at 48 hours...soooo, not much of a difference http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETAPA_12z/f48.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I think this will be a 2-4" snow/sleet.freezing rain to all rain event...How much all rain is the question?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 His forecast is for over 20 inches of snow for our area. I would love to see that verify . I doubt it will though. If NYC gets double digits from this...the 2nd event that is, then someone officially sold their soul to the devil...the first event I could envision a miracle 10 inches simply based on how this winter has gone and how these types of events overperform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 HPN only gets to 31 Big zr mess, this could be really bad for places to the North and West of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Ha... You know something, I agree with you. Very excited to see radar trends tonight. The other big issue is timing... OKX believes snow moves in at 8z, give or take an hour. Will be interesting to see precip break out even further & faster ahead of the Low on WAA... You mentioned this possibility several times regarding SWFE.... what are your thoughts now? If NYC gets double digits from this...the 2nd event that is, then someone officially sold their soul to the devil...the first event I could envision a miracle 10 inches simply based on how this winter has gone and how these types of events overperform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 RGEM is colder and close with the snow line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Ha... You know something, I agree with you. Very excited to see radar trends tonight. The other big issue is timing... OKX believes snow moves in at 8z, give or take an hour. Will be interesting to see precip break out even further & faster ahead of the Low on WAA... You mentioned this possibility several times regarding SWFE.... what are your thoughts now? the 14 Z ruc has snow starting by 08-09Z...it has the snow shield relatively far south as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Thanks for sharing. I really appreciate your insight. Also have to wonder if the precip gap begins to close as we get closer to the event. May very well be one long duration storm....rather than two distinct pieces. the 14 Z ruc has snow starting by 08-09Z...it has the snow shield relatively far south as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS thru hour 33 has NYC surface below zero. Line is on south shore of LI. 850's are cold thru hour 30 and pop just north of the city by hour 33. .25"-.50" of frozen for 1st event. Probably 80% snow, 20% sleet. Just saw that...Was going to say, GFS is just a touch colder than NAM at hr. 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I think this will be a 2-4" snow/sleet.freezing rain to all rain event...How much all rain is the question?... I was leaning this way but suspect the rain part is more limited especially in/around i-78 down to inland C-NJ. I think we will have a period of major ZR with tems hovering in the upper 20s before any change to all rain. Looks ugly for the commutes tues and wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS looks north of 6z in terms of the 850 line and surface line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 At 48 hours, heavier precip comes into the area. Freezing line is right on top of NYC while the 850's are to the north of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 12Z RGEM One hour dominant precip. at hour 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 At 48 hours, heavier precip comes into the area. Freezing line is right on top of NYC while the 850's are to the north of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 At 51 hours, freezing line and 850's are north of the City. Heavy rain for the area, while SNE is getting hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 event number 2 has trended wayyyyy NW.... worst case scenario that would be a lot of freezing rain for CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 of course the GFS is 150 miles WNW of nam within 48 hours.. so much for continuity they are getting farther from that as we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 of course the GFS is 150 miles WNW of nam within 48 hours.. so much for continuity they are getting farther from that as we get closer Remember I mentioned the NAM tends to have severe south biases outside 48 hours on SW flow events....I'm not so sure though I can go against it this year given its been good on many storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS at H5 took a slight jog to the north and as a result everything was moved northward, thus the warmer solution the shift is less than 50 miles, just goes to show how volatile the situation is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 of course the GFS is 150 miles WNW of nam within 48 hours.. so much for continuity they are getting farther from that as we get closer Yea, so much for model agreement. I really thought by 12Z today we would have a better idea, but no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Still colder than 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 12Z RGEM Hour 48 Surface isotherm [black] and 850 isotherm [red] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS is about .40" frozen for NYC thru hour 48. Then hours 48-60, pure rain. Not a lot though. About .50" Here is the rain part. Hours 48-60: This is largely because GFS does not pop a secondary south of LI but waits until too late and pops one e of Boston. The GFS is VERY different from the NAM, RGEM, and RUC. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 HPC says there were errors on the Nam THE NAM HAS TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER AND STRONGER BUT OTHERWISESHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 06Z GFS...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF AVERAGES 50-75 NM NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE NAM/GFS. AN UNRESOLVED CONCERN HOWEVER IS THAT MISSING RAOB DATA FROM SAN DIEGO MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE NAM'S QUESTIONABLE INITIALIZATION WHICH SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AS MUCH AS 50-75 NM EAST OF ITS APPROXIMATED POSITION ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THUS...THE NAM'S SLOWER/STRONGER TREND ENTERING THE PLAINS IS QUESTIONED. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This is also starting to get into the NAM's good range now. the nam was a hideous failure on the jan 26 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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