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NYC CWA Feb 1-2 Storm Discussion


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Guest stormchaser

That is better then ice blizzardo, so well take it. This is getting closer to roger smith land or those who know what I'm talking about

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Good amount of rain for NYC hours 48-54. .75"-1"

nam_namer_054_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

Once again I must say that this is really bad news if it verifies. Flooding will be very severe if this happens and the freezing line follows suit. I honestly would rather have the ice accumulation than this. Flooding of this magnitude causes bigger problems in this region than a minor ice accretion.

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33 degrees with a heavy snowpack will not really result in that much flooding, most of it will be absorbed. a layer of ice on top of the snowpack could complicate things however.

Once again I must say that this is really bad news if it verifies. Flooding will be very severe if this happens and the freezing line follos suit. I honestly would rather have the ice accumulation than this. Flooding of this magnitude causes bigger problems in this region than a minor ice accretion.

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This is going to be a now casting event - especially in NYC metro because they are right on the fence - and a degree or 2 or 3 here and there makes a big difference and is impossible to accurately predict until the event unfolds.........

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33 degrees with a heavy snowpack will not really result in that much flooding, most of it will be absorbed. a layer of ice on top of the snowpack could complicate things however.

I disagree. If the ice accumulation is less than an inch overall in this area, I have seen little to no issues over the years. However if we get an inch+ of rain on to this snowpack and river ice especially if it downpours at times we'd have serious problems all across the region.

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If the NAM has any clue, there's a better chance Mary Poppins jumps out of the sky then it plain raining significantly in NYC. Those soundings look like a scenario that would unfold as sleet to me and plenty of it... Warms up to above freezing at 54... Seen that before, and the cold almost always hangs around longer than advertised at the lower levels.

. 110131143830.gif

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3 hour soundings out. LGA goes above freezing at hour 51, 32.2 degrees.

And by then .93" of QPF has already fallen.

NAM is a big time ice storm for LGA:

http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_Klga.txt

plymouth soundings got a -.2 at 51... but we're splitting hairs here... Idk the resolution of hte plymouth soundings... going to pull up the arl though...

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Although NYC will not pick up a significant snowfall this time around, the accumulation should help push it toward 60" or the season. NYC's 56.1" at the end of January was the highest figure to that point in the season. FWIW, the highest snowfall figures through February (prior to 2010-11) were:

1. 61.7", 1995-96

2. 59.9", 1872-73

3. 58.5", 1947-48

4. 53.5", 1960-61

5. 52.3", 1922-23

NYC will start February in the #4 spot. If the month unfolds as I believe it will, 2010-11 should be in the top spot at the end of February. The big question that arises then is whether the rest of the season will have very little snowfall, as happened in 1872-73 or continued above normal snowfall as occurred in 1995-96. A lot will depend on whether the blocking redevelops in time for March and then holds through at least a meaningful portion of the month.

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Although NYC will not pick up a significant snowfall this time around, the accumulation should help push it toward 60" or the season. NYC's 56.1" at the end of January was the highest figure to that point in the season. FWIW, the highest snowfall figures through February (prior to 2010-11) were:

1. 61.7", 1995-96

2. 59.9", 1872-73

3. 58.5", 1947-48

4. 53.5", 1960-61

5. 52.3", 1922-23

NYC will start February in the #4 spot. If the month unfolds as I believe it will, 2010-11 should be in the top spot at the end of February. The big question that arises then is whether the rest of the season will have very little snowfall, as happened in 1872-73 or continued above normal snowfall as occurred in 1995-96. A lot will depend on whether the blocking redevelops in time for March and then holds through at least a meaningful portion of the month.

I agree with you Don...I also think March might have a grand finally...I thought that last year and was wrong...The blocking was gone in early March last year and returned to late to matter...This year it looks like the first part of February has a +ao but if it goes negative at the end of the month March will see another snowstorm...

This is the first time January and February will have at least 12" of snow depth on the 1st...1947-48 came close but Feb. 1st had only 8-9"...

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12z NAM still looks good for a few inches of snow and sleet with the initial waa precipitation. We'll know more about the main event in a few minutes, but man will it be hard to keep the thermal profile cold for frozen precipitation with a surface low driving into Illinois.

By the way, good morning dudes. Our nonstop winter of tracking snow continues.

Surface low "driving into Illinois"? I would be reluctant to say it that way when it ends up off the NJ coast. I it might we wise to focus on the persistent cold air source and where this ends up rather than where it is trying unnsuccessfully to go. There is very little here indicating plain rain at any time during this event and if we got a coastal cranking sooner, there is an outside possibility (less outside than it was earlier) that this could end up mostly heavy snow and sleet.

WX/PT

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