Guest Patrick Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hey Goose... Given the models warm bias, and the colder look of the rest of the overnight suite, do you see the legitimate possibility that we end up with mostly IP and very little ZR, thereby sparing the NYC metro a catastrophic ice event? Thats strange given how warm that darn model normally is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hey Goose... Given the models warm bias, and the colder look of the rest of the overnight suite, do you see the legitimate possibility that we end up with mostly IP and very little ZR, thereby sparing the NYC metro a catastrophic ice event? Honestly I see the sleet scenario or just rain...I think if it warms enough to go over to ZR we don't have a good enough setup to keep it ZR for that long....the 2nd part of this storm will probably be mostly sleet or rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Honestly I see the sleet scenario or just rain...I think if it warms enough to go over to ZR we don't have a good enough setup to keep it ZR for that long....the 2nd part of this storm will probably be mostly sleet or rain. Agreed entirely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Honestly I see the sleet scenario or just rain...I think if it warms enough to go over to ZR we don't have a good enough setup to keep it ZR for that long....the 2nd part of this storm will probably be mostly sleet or rain. 2/14/07... models were far too warm, then cooled at the surface... ice storm warnings were issued... it was sleet instead. That often happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 6z GFS warms JFK to near 40 during the second storm, in the end this is probably snow to mix for the first wave and sleet to rain on the second wave. NW of NYC still could be pretty bad with sleet and maybe ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 6z GFS warms JFK to near 40 during the second storm, in the end this is probably snow to mix for the first wave and sleet to rain on the second wave. NW of NYC still could be pretty bad with sleet and maybe ZR. You find the one model that's the warmest and use it? How about the euro and nam? Higher resolution models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 im pretty suprised my watch says 5-9" of snow, some sleet and some frz rain. 5-9" of snow is a lot of snow, then top it with icing and this is going to be a dangerous and ugly storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 You find the one model that's the warmest and use it? How about the euro and nam? Higher resolution models? 35 on the NAM and I dont have access to Euro model output. Either way I would be pretty surprised if JFK did not reach the mid 30s during the heaviest precip on wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 35 on the NAM and I dont have access to Euro model output. Either way I would be pretty surprised if JFK did not reach the mid 30s during the heaviest precip on wed. OK. But how about the other 36 hours? I agree that Wednesday afternoon we probably warm to rain. But how about 4am tonight thru Wednesday 1pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 OK. But how about the other 36 hours? I agree that Wednesday afternoon we probably warm to rain. But how about 4am tonight thru Wednesday 1pm? I think the NWS has the right idea with 1-3 / 2-4 type deal tomorrow and then up to .25 inch of ice for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm a little concerned with the cooler shift in model guidance....This trend just started for all intents and purposes, what if it continues...Its no coincidence that the cooler guidence tracks the storm out west slightly further south than the warmer guidance. This whole situation is going to require close monitoring. Anything but freezing rain ANYTHING....Its rare it happens on LI, but it happens, I remember cars being stuck to the road in ice a couple of times... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 No disrespect or slight to anyone intended here. However, I'm always surprised at the level of arguing over forecasts well in advance of an event. Most people basically go with whatever the latest model or model spreads show, then run with it as if it's etched in stone, only to then vehemently argue or defend what the next model cycle shows if/when they change abruptly, until the next model cycle changes once again and the process is repeated. Again, no disrespect intended. Just an observation that these threads often amount to good analyses and discussions about what the model of the moment shows, and less in the way of actual forecasting of the likely sensible weather outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riverrat Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 No disrespect or slight to anyone intended here. However, I'm always surprised at the level of arguing over forecasts well in advance of an event. Most people basically go with whatever the latest model or model spreads show, then run with it as if it's etched in stone, only to then vehemently argue or defend what the next model cycle shows if/when they change abruptly, until the next model cycle changes once again and the process is repeated. Again, no disrespect intended. Just an observation that these threads often amount to good analyses and discussions about what the model of the moment shows, and less in the way of actual forecasting of the likely sensible weather outcome. This is the nature of the beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I definitely see your point, but there are several ways to view this issue. It is true that there might be less in the way of actual forecasting of likely sensible weather in this forum. In all honesty, the local NWS offices (OKX & Mt Holly) do an awesome job getting that part right. If someone wants to see the most likely outcome, check the point and click forecast. This board is more of an "alternate ending" situation. There is no shortage of discussion regarding how and why a certain forecast was made for a particular location. You might hug the GFS, I'll hug the ETA, and someone who will remain unmentioned will hug the Nogaps. The rest of the weenies will hug whatever model gives them the most snow. To be fair, I guess you could say there seems to be a 'resident expert' on just about every model that we interpret. Pretty damn cool if you ask me. Personally, when I view a model run and see a "good" outcome for the area, I immediately pull analogs and, after asking tombo how much for my backyard, I try to determine what could go wrong. Specifically regarding this situation, I am sitting on the sidelines and waiting for the forecasts from PT, Don, TQ, and a few other met heavyweights. Unless we all torch and hit 40-50* in a hurry tomorrow, this event is going to be ugly, and there is going to be a lot of nail biting. Seems many in this forum weren't old enough to experience a real Freezing Rain storm. It can happen in NYC, even though there hasn't been a 'real' ice storm in several years. No disrespect or slight to anyone intended here. However, I'm always surprised at the level of arguing over forecasts well in advance of an event. Most people basically go with whatever the latest model or model spreads show, then run with it as if it's etched in stone, only to then vehemently argue or defend what the next model cycle shows if/when they change abruptly, until the next model cycle changes once again and the process is repeated. Again, no disrespect intended. Just an observation that these threads often amount to good analyses and discussions about what the model of the moment shows, and less in the way of actual forecasting of the likely sensible weather outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 No disrespect or slight to anyone intended here. However, I'm always surprised at the level of arguing over forecasts well in advance of an event. Most people basically go with whatever the latest model or model spreads show, then run with it as if it's etched in stone, only to then vehemently argue or defend what the next model cycle shows if/when they change abruptly, until the next model cycle changes once again and the process is repeated. Again, no disrespect intended. Just an observation that these threads often amount to good analyses and discussions about what the model of the moment shows, and less in the way of actual forecasting of the likely sensible weather outcome. you get forecasts from the pros, or noaa. us weenies use this platform to discuss and argue model prinouts. if ur looking for a weenie to provide a forecast, then thats your problem right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 9z SREF has a hell of an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 CAD and initial overruning precip. better on NAM at 12z 24h compared to 0z 36h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Temps fairly similar to 0z NAM. Certainly warmer when compared to 6z, but that's to be expected with this kind of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 .25 QPF for 1st event NYC Metro, .50-1.00 qpf N and W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 12z NAM still looks good for a few inches of snow and sleet with the initial waa precipitation. We'll know more about the main event in a few minutes, but man will it be hard to keep the thermal profile cold for frozen precipitation with a surface low driving into Illinois. By the way, good morning dudes. Our nonstop winter of tracking snow continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Through 39 hours, 0.25-0.50 QPF for NYC with the 850's just north of NYC and the surface below freezing. The heavier precip is just north of the city with the 1st batch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 2/14/07... models were far too warm, then cooled at the surface... ice storm warnings were issued... it was sleet instead. That often happens... In Ramsey we had plenty of ice thanks to rain and 20 degree temps until mid afternoon. We topped out that day at 34 degrees but the precip was already over. It did however save the evening commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 12z NAM still looks good for a few inches of snow and sleet with the initial waa precipitation. We'll know more about the main event in a few minutes, but man will it be hard to keep the thermal profile cold for frozen precipitation with a surface low driving into Illinois. By the way, good morning dudes. Our nonstop winter of tracking snow continues. I agree, but to see the Euro picking up on this strong CAD signature peaks my interests for an ice storm. They are rare around here and certainly even moreso with this **** set-up, but not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 A new high builds in at 45 hours, just in time for the 2nd round. 1032 high to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Out to 42, the surface temps are now noticably colder than 00z, but still slightly warmer than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The 2nd batch starts off frozen. Heavy precip for the area by hour 48 with below freezing temps. Very serious situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 All of PA, northern NJ getting hit hard with freezing rain on hour 48. 1032 high on 12z compared to 1030 high on 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Did notice that the main storm tracks ever so slightly south so far this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I just got that eery feelin that old man winter wants to keep rippin' and its going to snow more then anyone thinks.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 you get forecasts from the pros, or noaa. us weenies use this platform to discuss and argue model prinouts. if ur looking for a weenie to provide a forecast, then thats your problem right there. Not sure if there's an alternative to my earlier post and points. It is what it is and you certainly have to change your point of view as the models change. However, by way of example, I witnessed some individuals get ridiculed to no end on the last event when they dared question the Euro showing a rainstorm despite a great track. Several posters went out of their way to defene the Euro's rain solution and why those that questioned it were wrong. Of course, those same individuals then did an about face when the Euro's next run showed all snow instead of a driving rain, and then categorically defended the Euro's opposite position. As I said, there's no alternative but people are very quick to embrace the model of the moment and discount alternative views. Just my two cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.