Rib Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Post discussion about the Feb 1-2 storm in the NYC CWA here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Goose- the 1/7/94 storm is it... I was in college and was between sessions...which explains why i was home during the day...i remember it was a friday. just peeked at the ewall historical maps and the h5 maps kinda have some similarities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18Z RGEM MSLP 1000-500 mb thicknesses @ hour 54 considerably more wrapped up compared to the NAM at hour 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 whatever way you slice it - this has the potential of being a very dangerous storm in NYC metro - just analyse the 18Z GFS data from Newark NJ http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KEWR a few inches of snow - then a quater inch of ice then 3/4 inch rain then a flash freeze overnight into Thursday morning - NOT GOOD - also the 1 - 2 feet of snow already on the ground complicates the situation even more - clogged covered storm drains and roofs covered with heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 All in all a very messy storm, and if the storm trends colder and more south and east, then more ice will be at hand for the city.. but snow-ice-rain is still messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 All in all a very messy storm, and if the storm trends colder and more south and east, then more ice will be at hand for the city.. but snow-ice-rain is still messy. agree, even normal people who dont like snow rather have all snow with this one.. Wet snow then ice then rain would make the 2 foot snowpack extremely heavy which will cause major major problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 agree, even normal people who dont like snow rather have all snow with this one.. Wet snow then ice then rain would make the 2 foot snowpack extremely heavy which will cause major major problems. If the NAM is running right, then we might not have to worry about any rain.... Because the NAM puts 12+ all over the place, which would quite nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If the NAM is running right, then we might not have to worry about any rain.... Because the NAM puts 12+ all over the place, which would quite nuts. yeah if it holds for a few more runs with colder temps and weaker low trends, we may be looking at a 3 ft snow pack? i wouldnt use the euro for this storm all that much, its been too warm with basically everystorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 yeah if it holds for a few more runs with colder temps and weaker low trends, we may be looking at a 3 ft snow pack? i wouldnt use the euro for this storm all that much, its been too warm with basically everystorm. I cannot even comprehend what a 35" snowpack would look like here.... But tonight and tomorrow will certainly determine if the NAM is on crack or has something. But it made a significant colder trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If the 0z runs Continue the trend I would expect mostly frozen precip even down to nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If the NAM is running right, then we might not have to worry about any rain.... Because the NAM puts 12+ all over the place, which would quite nuts. IF that happened it would be 12 inches of heavy very wet snow - just as bad as the snow - ice - heavy rain - flash freeze the GFS is advertising..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 here is rather interesting article about what is happening leading up to this event http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/prometweatherblogs/5/1/4271/Models-Too-Far-North-with-This-Weeks-Storm?--+-Precip-Type-Map this explains the colder solutions beginning to come in.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Major problems for the interior if the GFS verifies http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NY&stn=KHPN&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 here is rather interesting article about what is happening leading up to this event http://www.liveweath...Precip-Type-Map this explains the colder solutions beginning to come in.... It's a rule of thumb, however there is more to this storm than simply a shortwave crossing the CONUS in a zonal flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 here is rather interesting article about what is happening leading up to this event http://www.liveweath...Precip-Type-Map this explains the colder solutions beginning to come in.... His historical reasoning involving the wave latitude does not account for current patterns, which involves a second wave diving into the southwest, and kicking the first wave NE'ward. I chalk up the jog south to simple cold air intrusion lowing the heights across the 40-45N latitudes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It's a rule of thumb, however there is more to this storm than simply a shortwave crossing the CONUS in a zonal flow. just doesn't apply to a shortwave in a zonal flow - he wouldn't have written that article as a possible example for this system if it did.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 just doesn't apply to a shortwave in a zonal flow - he wouldn't have written that article as a possible example for this system if it did.... I could also write an article that more than "9 times out of 10" the models are not very far off at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM clown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
middlesea Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Based on this a 10 mile shift to the south gives NYC warning level snows...? NAM clown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Based on this a 10 mile shift to the south gives NYC warning level snows...? It's an off hour NAM run, which I never trust. If 0z models come in with a colder solution though overall, it will definitely be a trend to watch for. Either way, I doubt places more than 25 miles NW of the city see any liquid rain. The cold air sticks there and it takes a lot of warm advection to scour it out, even without snow cover. I probably see rain for a while, but I just hope we can avoid the temp spike into the 40s. That's the kind of thing that will lead to flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Based on this a 10 mile shift to the south gives NYC warning level snows...? It gives NYC 5-8" as it is...so verbatim its a WSW. 10-20 miles more shift south and NYC gets into the 10"-12" area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It gives NYC 5-8" as it is...so verbatim its a WSW. 10-20 miles more shift south and NYC gets into the 12" area... Yea its very close to warning level snows. Let's see what the 00z NAM does now having fresh dataset and the s/w being fully onshore. If it continues to come south then oh boy...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yea its very close to warning level snows. Let's see what the 00z NAM does now having fresh dataset and the s/w being fully onshore. If it continues to come south then oh boy...... Im not expecting another big snow with this one, but if we can squeeze out 3-6/4-8" with mostly ice/sleet and little plain rain, Id be happy. 18Z GFS & NAM were very close to this scenario at worst. BTW- State College hoisted WSW for their entire CWA down to the M/D line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Im not expecting another big snow with this one, but if we can squeeze out 3-6/4-8" with mostly ice/sleet and little plain rain, Id be happy. 18Z GFS & NAM were very close to this scenario at worst. BTW- State College hoisted WSW for their entire CWA down to the M/D line... Yea im just hoping for little plain rain. Lets keep it on the wintry side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Tremendous area of watches and warnings on the map. Even a blizzard watch for Chicago and would be in their top 5 of all time with 1 to 2 feet forecasted. Tomorrow I think more than half the country will be blue, pink or purple Im not expecting another big snow with this one, but if we can squeeze out 3-6/4-8" with mostly ice/sleet and little plain rain, Id be happy. 18Z GFS & NAM were very close to this scenario at worst. BTW- State College hoisted WSW for their entire CWA down to the M/D line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 835 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2011 ...A LARGE WINTER STORM IS FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST USA... .SNOW TUESDAY MORNING WILL TURN TO RAIN...SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE SOMETIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN RESUME AS HEAVY RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE WEDNESDAY. NJZ001-007>010-012-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-068-069-310945- /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0004.110201T0800Z-110202T2200Z/ SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-CARBON- MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN... FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...JIM THORPE... STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON... NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN 835 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE: EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AS WELL AS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. * PRECIPITATION TYPE: SNOW TUESDAY MORNING CHANGES TO SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. PERIODS OF HEAVY SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS: 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET TUESDAY. GLAZE MAY ACCUMULATE FROM ONE QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. * TIMING: SNOW BEGINS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 4 AM TUESDAY. THE CHANGE TO SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM TUESDAY. * IMPACTS: THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE WILL LIKELY BE HAZARDOUS WITH AT LEAST SOME SNOW AND TEMPERATURES NEAR 20. THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE IS ALSO LIKELY TO BE HAZARDOUS DUE TO ICE AND THE WEDNESDAY EVENING COMMUTE MAY STILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR ALL UNTREATED PAVEMENTS. IF GLAZE REACHES OR EXCEEDS ONE HALF INCH...POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR. ALSO...THE WATER EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION FOR THIS STORM MAY EXCEED ONE INCH AND THIS ADDED TO SNOW LOADS ON SOME ROOFS AND ATTEMPTING TO RUN OFF INTO ICE ALREADY ICE CLOGGED ROOF GUTTERS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO STRUCTURE LEAKS. * CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE ON BOTH SNOW AND GLAZE OCCURRING BUT TOP END AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF GLAZE ARE BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && $$ DRAG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 WSW for Asbury Park NJ (as Coastal as you can get)...Will Upton follow suit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 if the 00z NAM is anything like the 18z run, I would say OKX really should consider throwing up a WSW for the entire CWA. this could be one nasty storm, especially JUST north and NW of the City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wow the watch has up to 6" of snow possible as the top amount and 3/4 of an inch of ice as the top amount. If amounts were to get that high, we would see major disruptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Definitly a watch....I don't see the harm in issuing a watch...can always be upgraded if need be or downgraded, but either way the public at least knows that it could be something serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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