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Epic winter signal continues to beam, part III


Typhoon Tip

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from St. louis AFD

A FOOT AND A HALF POSSIBLE

Chicago AFD

TOTAL SNOWFALL IS CURRENTLY

FORECASTED FOR THE EVENT IN EXCESS OF ONE FOOT TO SOME LOCATIONS

RECEIVING UP TO TWO FEET. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A FEW MODEL

SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE SUGGESTED SNOW RATIOS WOULD BE SLIGHTLY

HIGHER...WHICH COULD LEAD TO STORM TOTALS MUCH HIGHER

these offices were leading on a northwest deeper LP trend in their writeups.....and then 18z said "not so much" and shifted back a tad south.....they will be watching 0z's like a hawk out there

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SNE big city weenies-

There is going to be a run on the stores beginning tomorrow.

Consider how the tone even here has changed the past two days. I've noticed a steady increase in levels of concern among many posters who were giddy last week.

It began with talk about icicle dangers. Then a wave of chatter about ice dam troubles. High berm warnings followed from many who are disliking the hazards of great snow depth. An avalanche of roof weight build-up posts soon followed.

And now the growing certainty here that mastodon-immobilizing snows are at your doorsteps.

This changing tone has taken place here among the people who best understand the effects of winter.

Imagine how the other 99% of your neighbors will react. They begin to panic-buy tomorrow.

The herd of the great unwashed will become skittish tonight when they begin to hear those first rustlings from the little people with the big heads that read them the news and play-act the weather on those millions of tv's.

The cities have a problem coming up. Whether or not and to what degree it happens is moot.

The shelves are going to begin going bare tomorrow.

So, panic before they do.

Vim Toot!

:weenie:

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I keep seeing folks mention that the NAM was the first to latch onto the two piece aspect of the last event, which is true, but what they fail to mention is that it also tried to whiff most of us....which was not at all correct.

Couple that with the bias of the NAM to under do WAA in swfes and presto.

The NAM is probably sniffing out some what of a trend, but it's nothing that we didn't already expect....the snow\sleet line will end up the pike and not rt 2.

I don't even think that this forecast is that difficult....I'm not saying that the NAM is useless, I believe that it has value if you view it as another ensemble member and in so doing it should make folks n of the pike feel even more comfy....I mean, I'd rather see the NAM do that, then send sleet to Concord, NH.

I'd agree people are taking runs to literally. I think the nam will have two things right here in general....a more pronounced first system that helps to reset the boundary further south after the first pulse, and a faster cutoff to the warm air / jump out south. Like you said it's prone to extremes but it's had a good idea of general changes at 72 hours.

The gfs had a decent idea at 72 hours last time. I think tonight we will get a good snapshot of what's to come. I do think we continue with the colder trend but like Will said precise discussions of small changes at 3 1/4 day makes no real sense.

It did hand up energy moreso this run.

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I'd agree people are taking runs to literally. I think the nam will have two things right here in general....a more pronounced first system that helps to reset the boundary further south after the first pulse, and a faster cutoff to the warm air / jump out south. Like you said it's prone to extremes but it's had a good idea of general changes at 72 hours.

The gfs had a decent idea at 72 hours last time. I think tonight we will get a good snapshot of what's to come. I do think we continue with the colder trend but like Will said precise discussions of small changes at 3 1/4 day makes no real sense.

It did hand up energy moreso this run.

I have to agree with you Messenger, I think in the end based on the season so far and overall storm track this year, the colder solution seems to be the way to go these days than the warmer rain or mix type of storms other than for the Cape and islands.

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So far this is the 8th snowiest winter on record for BDL with 71.1''

2004-2005 is up next with 74.1'' then 2002-2003 with 75.5'' then 1955-1956 with 76.3'' then 1960-1961 with 80.2''...this is actually the 5th snowiest winter on record for BDL...this storm has a chance to get us into or pretty close to the top 5!

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I think that map is very reasonable....agree with that.

Of course you do LOL, wow. You guys remember when Matt N said last week that this would be the biggest storm of the winter and many laughed, hmmmmm As is typical for these events QPF ramps up not down like the typical coastal, been there done this.

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Good to see Burbank is on board!

I am not buying into that rain,snow mix to snow scenerio for Plymouth County.....I am thinking Barry B is a bit low for totals south and southwest of Boston....he blew it on the last storm and I believe he is trying to play catch up or make up for the last busted forecast.. imo....

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