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Epic winter signal continues to beam, part III

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted

Would like this to verify pleaze!

Station ID: KTAN Lat:   41.87 Long:  -71.02                                                        
NAM Model Run:  6Z 31JAN 2011
 HR Valid 	2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX   Tot    Snowfall  Vis
               Deg F  Deg F   deg      kt    in.   in. 	Thk    GPH   Tmp   Tmp   mb   %  TEXT    Clouds      in    SM
  0 01/31 06Z   20 	11 	280   	5    0.00  0.00    521    539  -13.2 -26.0 1023   0          CLR   	0.0   15.1
  3 01/31 09Z   17      8 	305   	6    0.00  0.00    521    541  -12.2 -27.2 1026   4   	007FEW062    0.0   15.1
  6 01/31 12Z   13      7 	325   	6    0.00  0.00    521    543  -13.5 -27.9 1028  10   	024FEW078    0.0   14.9
  9 01/31 15Z   19 	10 	344      10    0.00  0.00    521    546  -12.2 -27.1 1032   2   	230FEW251    0.0   14.9
 12 01/31 18Z   21 	13 	352   	7    0.00  0.00    524    548  -10.9 -25.4 1031   3   	246FEW268    0.0   15.1
 15 01/31 21Z   21 	13 	333   	6    0.00  0.00    524    549   -9.9 -25.3 1031  98   	143OVC244    0.0   15.1
 18 02/01 00Z   19 	13   	4   	2    0.00  0.00    525    550   -9.2 -24.8 1032  96   	130BKN210    0.0   15.1
 21 02/01 03Z   15 	10      30   	4    0.00  0.00    526    551   -8.7 -24.2 1032  93   	138BKN303    0.0   14.9
 24 02/01 06Z   17 	13      20   	2    0.00  0.00    527    552   -8.3 -24.4 1032 100   	116OVC310    0.0   14.9
 27 02/01 09Z   19 	16 	355   	3    0.00  0.00    528    552   -9.6 -24.1 1031 100   	050OVC231    0.0   15.1
 30 02/01 12Z   20 	17      19   	3    0.00  0.00    530    554   -8.3 -24.0 1031 100   	000OVC269    0.0    7.2
 33 02/01 15Z   24 	22      32   	7    0.04  0.00    531    555   -5.6 -23.8 1030 100 -SN   000OVC245    0.4    1.3
 36 02/01 18Z   26 	25      35   	8    0.13  0.00    533    555   -4.1 -23.4 1027 100 SN    000OVC210    1.3    0.4
 39 02/01 21Z   26 	25      27      10    0.20  0.00    535    555   -5.2 -22.8 1026 100 -SN   000OVC260    2.1    0.5
 42 02/02 00Z   26 	25      23      11    0.12  0.00    537    557   -0.2 -22.8 1025 100 -SN   000OVC366    1.1    0.9
 45 02/02 03Z   27 	26      22      11    0.04  0.00    539    558   -0.3 -20.4 1023 100   	000OVC327    0.0    4.3
 48 02/02 06Z   27 	26      11      11    0.02  0.00    538    557   -1.1 -21.1 1023 100 -SN   000OVC406    0.2    2.7
 51 02/02 09Z   28 	26      26      11    0.01  0.00    539    556   -2.2 -19.9 1021 100   	000OVC430    0.1    2.6
 54 02/02 12Z   30 	29      40      10    0.02  0.00    539    555   -2.0 -18.6 1020 100 -SN   000OVC407    0.2    1.7
 57 02/02 15Z   32 	31      61      11    0.15  0.00    539    555   -3.5 -18.7 1019 100 SN    000OVC352    1.5    0.5
 60 02/02 18Z   32 	31      66      14    0.24  0.00    543    553   -2.3 -16.1 1012 100 SN    000OVC410    2.2    0.3
 63 02/02 21Z   32 	31      40      18    0.45  0.00    542    549   -3.9 -18.3 1008 100 SN    000OVC171    4.1    0.3
 66 02/03 00Z   31 	29      39      18    0.13  0.00    538    543   -2.5 -22.4 1006 100 -PL   000OVC058    0.0    1.8
 69 02/03 03Z   31 	30      25      14    0.04  0.00    533    540   -6.6 -25.5 1008 100 -SN   000OVC060    0.4    1.3
 72 02/03 06Z   27 	25      23      15    0.04  0.00    530    537   -7.4 -25.0 1008 100 -SN   000OVC153    0.4    2.1
 75 02/03 09Z   24 	22   	0      14    0.06  0.00    525    534  -11.0 -25.9 1011 100 -SN   000OVC162    0.6    1.1
 78 02/03 12Z   22 	19 	359      12    0.02  0.00    525    537  -10.6 -24.2 1015 100   	000OVC038    0.0    7.0
 81 02/03 15Z   26 	23   	1      12    0.00  0.00    525    539  -11.3 -23.8 1018 100   	000OVC041    0.0    8.2
 84 02/03 18Z   28 	22   	3   	9    0.00  0.00    524    539  -12.3 -23.9 1018  95   	000BKN031    0.0   15.4

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Yeah, that's as far north as they get.

That makes sense. It seems we have trended the warmest layer a bit higher in the column. 700mb is pretty warm for a time even while 850 is quite cold. I think I may flirt with a few pellets at the height...but we'll see. It might be that the snow growth turns crappier for a time with some snow grains mixed in up near the 850-700 line rather than actual pellets if the culprit of the warm values is a layer near like -1C or -2C in the 750mb region and the actual >0C stuff is a little further south of that line by 15 or 20 mi.

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rivers

rivers

Posted
Posted

I was reading the upton discussion this morning and they feel that the rain snow line stops at nyc-long island with southern conn ending up with snow to sleet then ice,followed by snow and sleet for the interior counties.thats definitly a colder solution from yesterday.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Considering how we've gone from everyone thinking CT would get a damaging ice storm..to 12 hrs of sleet to now a few hours of maybe some pellets mixed in..I like my chances of mostly snow

I'm really not understanding why people are so hesitant to accept the snow solution this time. Clearly the nam at 18z yesterday started to get the right idea.

This is mostly snow for many/most,

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
Posted

Considering how we've gone from everyone thinking CT would get a damaging ice storm..to 12 hrs of sleet to now a few hours of maybe some pellets mixed in..I like my chances of mostly snow

I don't see much of anyone truly convinced CT will only see a little bit of pellets mixed in. It's just a little pregame trend, I'll be shocked if you don't get a layer of taint. I would buy ORH having a few pellets.

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jt5019

jt5019

Posted
Posted

HEAVIEST PRECIP MOVES IN WEDNESDAY AS NOW CLOSED UPPER LOW

MOVES EAST AND OPENS UP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. SFC LOW LOOKS TO TRACK

ACROSS PA WEDNESDAY MORNING...TO NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND

WED AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARD A TRACK JUST SOUTH...WITH

MORE OF A EAST/NORTHEAST WIND FLOW THE RESULT.

ENOUGH WARM AIR FOR A TRANSITION TO LIQUID FORM...ESPECIALLY NEAR

THE COAST. SNOW AND SLEET INTERIOR TUE NIGHT AND WED.

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? FOR NRN NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SRN

CT...MORE FROZEN PRECIP TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER SNOW

AMOUNTS. COULD SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES SNOW/SLEET ACCUM ACROSS INTERIOR

LOCATIONS. SOME FREEZING RAIN MIXES IN...ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH

FOR A COATING OF ICE. IN FACT...UP TO A HALF AN INCH ICE ACCUM IS

POSSIBLE.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted

I'm really not understanding why people are so hesitant to accept the snow solution this time. Clearly the nam at 18z yesterday started to get the right idea.

This is mostly snow for many/most,

Past history from the 2007/08 season. There always seams to be some sneaky warm layer in there that muddles things up.

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rivers

rivers

Posted
Posted

HEAVIEST PRECIP MOVES IN WEDNESDAY AS NOW CLOSED UPPER LOW

MOVES EAST AND OPENS UP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. SFC LOW LOOKS TO TRACK

ACROSS PA WEDNESDAY MORNING...TO NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND

WED AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARD A TRACK JUST SOUTH...WITH

MORE OF A EAST/NORTHEAST WIND FLOW THE RESULT.

ENOUGH WARM AIR FOR A TRANSITION TO LIQUID FORM...ESPECIALLY NEAR

THE COAST. SNOW AND SLEET INTERIOR TUE NIGHT AND WED.

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? FOR NRN NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SRN

CT...MORE FROZEN PRECIP TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER SNOW

AMOUNTS. COULD SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES SNOW/SLEET ACCUM ACROSS INTERIOR

LOCATIONS. SOME FREEZING RAIN MIXES IN...ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH

FOR A COATING OF ICE. IN FACT...UP TO A HALF AN INCH ICE ACCUM IS

POSSIBLE.

thats the forcast for southern connecticut counties,if this verifies it would mean alot more snow for the northern part of the state.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Past history from the 2007/08 season. There always seams to be some sneaky warm layer in there that muddles things up.

That I could buy but I think it's a foregone conclusion that the colder solutions are winning out. It's following the same pattern of the 2011 season.

Said it yesterday,I think the low jumps off the snj coast moving out under us.

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mattmfm

mattmfm

Posted
Posted

I'm really not understanding why people are so hesitant to accept the snow solution this time. Clearly the nam at 18z yesterday started to get the right idea.

This is mostly snow for many/most,

Because even with cold low levels as we're seeing these types of events always seen to find a way to push a mid-level warm layer further north than anticipated. There have been numerous events on this board when a storm trended towards a colder/snowier solution only to have Kevin freaking when he starts hearing pings.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Considering how we've gone from everyone thinking CT would get a damaging ice storm..to 12 hrs of sleet to now a few hours of maybe some pellets mixed in..I like my chances of mostly snow

Worst case scenario is you ping for a few hours during the heaviest QPF. Not the worst thing in the world to add a layer of sand to the snowpack.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Because even with cold low levels as we're seeing these types of events always seen to find a way to push a mid-level warm layer further north than anticipated. There have been numerous events on this board when a storm trended towards a colder/snowier solution only to have Kevin freaking when he starts hearing pings.

Well looking closely at the NAM now....I can tell you all year it's been tool cold. Now it's still 2 days away so we will see the normal fluctuations upcoming and hopefully the cooler trending holds.

That said, it's been the 1000-700 CT's that have mattered with it, most times the 1000-8h critical thicknesses have given false hope. The last storm was a perfect example it was warm layers between 700-850 that caused the delayed change over.

That should take everyone back a notch as it's still a lot of non-snow in CT. Models continue to hint at a deal where it's colder east on any given line versus west, IE Bob is still snowing, Kev is pinging or Ryan etc.

This will need to sink south for there to be any confidence in a mostly snow situation anywhere near the line.

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