A-L-E-X Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Guess i don't pay attention. lol My favorite ice storm (I guess if you can call it "favorite" lol) was back in January 1994, when we got almost 2 inches of ice on almost all surfaces. That came after a few inches of snow and sleet and the result was an offwhite hard as rock snow/icepack that you couldnt even dig into with an ice pick and which you could drive an 18 wheeler over without leaving a mark. VD 2007 and St Pattys Day 2007 also featured events that had freezing rain as part of their mixed bag of slop, but were more snow and/or sleet than anything else. We usually get 1-2 events a year which feature freezing rain for at least part of the storm on long island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I can see 6hr ensembles now and they are cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 You are qyuickly becoming the latest DD. All this talk of wanting zr and storms missing. Show me one post this winter where I wanted a storm to miss.. I'm just saying the majority of guidance was wide-right with this weeknds system. Believe me, the last thing I want is a miss, let's bring this b**** right up the Hudson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Apparently, it's cooled some. A few folks (messenger, and others) had suggested the off hour NAM/GFS would run a lot colder, the milder on the main runs though with a somewhat cooler look than the prior main run. A two-steps up, one step back approach. So like you said, let's see what the 12z run has in store. Good htings all around though. 12+ coming. I might end up eating crow on my thought of the CT ice storm. I think Pete was premature in making a "final call" yesterday. He'd undoubtedly would want to raise his floor to about 10" or more I think. 14.1/6 As I said, 8-14" was a good place to start a final call. If things continue to trend colder I can bump my final call to 12-18", once underway if we get into that familiar East Slope Death Band I can then push the totals to 24-36" for my final call. Anyway you slice it, my final call should be spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Show me one post this winter where I wanted a storm to miss.. I'm just saying the majority of guidance was wide-right with this weeknds system. Believe me, the last thing I want is a miss, let's bring this b**** right up the Hudson. Ok, right there, you did it again. You made me puke a little into my mouth. Stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I can see 6hr ensembles now and they are cold. Scott, Do you think I'll ping here? Nothing worse than the sound of bb's hitting the windows. It's bummed me out since I was a kid. My guess is a brief period of sn/pl mix before flipping back to all snow. ALB/BOX afd's have me a bit concerned about taint issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I can see 6hr ensembles now and they are cold. gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I can see 6hr ensembles now and they are cold. How cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Scott, Do you think I'll ping here? Nothing worse than the sound of bb's hitting the windows. It's bummed me out since I was a kid. My guess is a brief period of sn/pl mix before flipping back to all snow. ALB/BOX afd's have me a bit concerned about taint issues. Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looks like HPC has shifted the heaviest QPF a little further North.. 0z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Pretty decent differences: 6z NAM 00z NAM 00z GFS 18z GFS (similar, a bit warmer, than 6z GFS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Always pretty nerve wracking being right in the middle of the mix line - Scott I don't envy you having to make a call for the airport - they could get >15" from the one-two punch or 8" and 0.5" accretion. BOX's experience with the local climate and SWFE pattern and calling for a major mix south of I-90 has me nervous about watching the pink creep over my head. Edit: I'm 1 mile south of the pike so literally battleground. the OKX snow totals are somewhat encouraging and would indicate more of a 10-15"+ total up this way. Hope we put our 1.25-1.50" QPF toward snow and not ice pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 You are to quick, I had already edited it...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 You are to quick, I had already edited it...lol You're quick, too - I deleted my post. Anyway, it's heavy stuff for a whole lot of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 You're quick, too - I deleted my post. Anyway, it's heavy stuff for a whole lot of us. It is, It looks like GYX is going to treat it like 2 events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Always pretty nerve wracking being right in the middle of the mix line - Scott I don't envy you having to make a call for the airport - they could get >15" from the one-two punch or 8" and 0.5" accretion. BOX's experience with the local climate and SWFE pattern and calling for a major mix south of I-90 has me nervous about watching the pink creep over my head. Edit: I'm 1 mile south of the pike so literally battleground. the OKX snow totals are somewhat encouraging and would indicate more of a 10-15"+ total up this way. Hope we put our 1.25-1.50" QPF toward snow and not ice pack. I'm starting to feel pretty good about mostly snow for us. I'll wait until 12z, but like I said earlier, I'm still nervous for a tick back north a bit, as models waver a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Always pretty nerve wracking being right in the middle of the mix line - Scott I don't envy you having to make a call for the airport - they could get >15" from the one-two punch or 8" and 0.5" accretion. BOX's experience with the local climate and SWFE pattern and calling for a major mix south of I-90 has me nervous about watching the pink creep over my head. Edit: I'm 1 mile south of the pike so literally battleground. the OKX snow totals are somewhat encouraging and would indicate more of a 10-15"+ total up this way. Hope we put our 1.25-1.50" QPF toward snow and not ice pack. LOL. I'm about 1/4 mile from the Pike, so I just pick the forecast that Ilike best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Nope. Cool. It's going to be quite spectacular around these parts with another 12-18" on top of this. I wish I didn't have to work today so I could hover over the computer to keep tabs on the latest trends. However, I think I'll lose a good part of the week to skiing so....... Thanks for your reply, hope you don't taint as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COPO Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Channel 40 news in Springfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 As I said, 8-14" was a good place to start a final call. If things continue to trend colder I can bump my final call to 12-18", once underway if we get into that familiar East Slope Death Band I can then push the totals to 24-36" for my final call. Anyway you slice it, my final call should be spot on. I don't think you know the meaning of the words "final call". lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Nope. Good to hear. ALY has pinging into the CD and SVT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looks like sleet stays south of HFD now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 gfs and nam both give me 18-19", euro probably gives me 13-14" or so. Im going all out. Call for now: 3-5 tues 10-14 wed 13-19 total. -------------- Btw when you guys get totals for this Im assuming youll just count it as 1 event? Not really any precip falls from 6z wed to 12z wed though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 6z can go to hell like 18. trash runs. AWT haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm thinking along and N of the pike stays 80-90% snow and probably 100% N of rt 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Others have noted but this is so 1993-94. We had one around the same time of year which also came in on a Tuesday and was supposed to be 2-4 but was 4-8. The next day gave us 8-12. And this winter rocks on...... When I called for 73 in BOS back in late September many ridiculed. We may well have that total by sunset Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm thinking along and N of the pike stays 80-90% snow and probably 100% N of rt 2. HFD south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 HFD south I think they'll be plenty of pingers in CT into HFD and you'll almost certainly ping too. I may ping here at the height for a brief time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm thinking along and N of the pike stays 80-90% snow and probably 100% N of rt 2. Yeah, I'd agree. From what I've seen this morning and yesterday, it really doesn't seem like that hard of a forecast. Mix line at I-90, maybe a few pingers mixed up to RT 2, but nothing that'll take away from accums. For those that do change to sleet, you've got a huge snowpack and now it'll be more indestructable, I don't see the problem, haha. Jackpot for me in this storm would be far northern MA, southern Greens, and Manadnocks area. I would love to be in Jaffery for this one. I think you'll certainly get into double digits (maybe 15-18") in ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm thinking along and N of the pike stays 80-90% snow and probably 100% N of rt 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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