wiley1 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 My area looks like a net loss for this system we have charateristics much like SECN as mentioned be for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 weekend storm ots....ni-night Not for SNE on the Euro it's not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Interestingly, the zfp even for here in western Franklin has a sleet taint on Wednesday. BOX is sticking with a mix scenario in their AFD. Nice to see 4-6" in the official forecast for NW areas from the appetizer. Doesn't really matter what the AFD says.Everything is coming in much colder/south and snowier Mike,. Euro/NAM/GFS ..look at trends..not AFD's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm not sure that extra inch over 24 hours would merit exclusion--especially since we're talking "watch" and the confidence level has to be quite high. I wonder if VT has the same criteria as they've been hoisted there. Read the AFD it's explained in there also IIRC. PER COLLABORATION WITH UPSTREAM OFFICES AND BASED ON MEETING WINTER WEATHER CRITERIA...HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...VERSUS AN ADVISORY TUESDAY AND WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY...AS THE LULL IN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF. THE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED NORTH INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS AFTERNOON...GIVEN CRITERIA THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET THERE UNTIL LATE 4TH OR 5TH PERIOD. WILL HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL EFFECTS AND NOTE IMPACTS OF THIS TWO PART SYSTEM IN THE WATCH STATEMENT. THE WATCH MAY BE EXPANDED CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST AS WELL...ALTHOUGH WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO CUT DOWN ON SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 OKX has decent snows in their graphic up. But, they also hit the ice pretty hard. How often does NYC have ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I just need 3 drops of fzra on mt tolland to win a 6 pack of smithwicks. Ahh..good morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Doesn't really matter what the AFD says.Everything is coming in much colder/south and snowier Mike,. Euro/NAM/GFS ..look at trends..not AFD's I see that, Kevin. My comment was tied to their AFD not seeming to really give that a whole lot of weight for whatever reason. Either way 12+ looks pretty good. I mentioned this yesterday, but I'll do so again. I would think the duration of this over two days will allow for some compaction of snow during the events (even without tainting). So, folks should take that into account when putting out their accumulation forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NYC saw a rather extended period of freezing drizzle a few weeks ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I see that, Kevin. My comment was tied to their AFD not seeming to really give that a whole lot of weight for whatever reason. Either way 12+ looks pretty good. I mentioned this yesterday, but I'll do so again. I would think the duration of this over two days will allow for some compaction of snow during the events (even without tainting). So, folks should take that into account when putting out their accumulation forecasts. Won't matter if wiping the board clean every six hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I see that, Kevin. My comment was tied to their AFD not seeming to really give that a whole lot of weight for whatever reason. Either way 12+ looks pretty good. I mentioned this yesterday, but I'll do so again. I would think the duration of this over two days will allow for some compaction of snow during the events (even without tainting). So, folks should take that into account when putting out their accumulation forecasts. I don't know, would think the two systems should be measured and accounted for seperately if there is an extended break (several hours) in precip. Also, everyone shuold be wiping clean their measuring boards/surfaces every 6 hrs which negates the compacting issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NYC saw a rather extended period of freezing drizzle a few weeks ago... Guess i don't pay attention. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 6z can go to hell like 18. trash runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 6z can go to hell like 18. trash runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 6z can go to hell like 18. trash runs. The SREF is all you need to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 LOL...I decided no AWT's this morning.. I think things speak for themselves So, no AWT Warning Criteria? Just understood... AWK - as we knew? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 6z can go to hell like 18. trash runs. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Good morning i'm thinking of opening a rim repair shop up in boston even though i have my hands full in the bronx i have nowhere to put snow anymore i have to hire a payloader no ****ting this is rediciulous . The slopfest coming my way should seal the deal with pothole armaggedon LOL see ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Were the Euro ensembles also colder? Yeah they were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Still nervous 12z runs could go warmer again, but a nice trend over the last 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 LOL I applied the appropriate correctional vector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I applied the appropriate correctional vector. Have you slept? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I applied the appropriate correctional vector. You guys will still do fine up there..maybe just not those real high amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Have you slept? Yeah...a half hour right through my alarm.Danielle Niles has me in 12-20+. So the Danielle/SREFs rule goes into effect. Honestly I haven't had time to even look at 6z. See you tonight guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 You guys will still do fine up there..maybe just not those real high amounts Probably only 6" more than you now instead of 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 6z can go to hell like 18. trash runs. You get cranky on 4 hours' rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Not enough meridonal flow for the weekends system to catch it seems. (OT) You are qyuickly becoming the latest DD. All this talk of wanting zr and storms missing. SATURDAY... NO REST FOR THE WEARY. ANOTHER SYSTEM BURSTS OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE EAST COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND EC OPERATIONAL RUNS AGREE ON THE SURFACE LOW MOVING PAST NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY NIGHT WITH A FEW DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND TIMING DETAILS. THE GFS IS FASTEST AND DEEPEST...AND SHOWS A PRESSURE FALL OF 24 MB PER 24 HOURS FROM 12Z SAT TO 12Z SUN. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES WOULD BE MAINLY SNOW...WITH POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE ISLANDS. OF COURSE...THIS IS A DAY SIX FORECAST SO EXPECT CHANGES AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. FOR NOW THERE SEEMS ENOUGH AGREEMENT ON A SYSTEM CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT MOST OR ALL OF OUR AREA SO THAT WE WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS IN ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND LOWEST POPS AT CHESHIRE AND FRANKLIN CO/S. WE WILL USE A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES TO GENERATE P-TYPES. SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WITH MARGINAL COOLING OF THE AIRMASS. EXPECT FAIR/DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Whether it happens or not, I do want to make this morning's whdh map the background on my computer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yeah...a half hour right through my alarm. Danielle Niles has me in 12-20+. So the Danielle/SREFs rule goes into effect. Honestly I haven't had time to even look at 6z. See you tonight guys. You guys still seem winners to me because of the deformation area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Whether it happens or not, I do want to make this morning's whdh map the background on my computer. Copious QPF Computer Calmness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Probably only 6" more than you now instead of 12" Might want to think about reversing that statement from south to north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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