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Epic winter signal continues to beam, part III


Typhoon Tip

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SNE big city weenies-

There is going to be a run on the stores beginning tomorrow.

Consider how the tone even here has changed the past two days. I've noticed a steady increase in levels of concern among many posters who were giddy last week.

It began with talk about icicle dangers. Then a wave of chatter about ice dam troubles. High berm warnings followed from many who are disliking the hazards of great snow depth. An avalanche of roof weight build-up posts soon followed.

And now the growing certainty here that mastodon-immobilizing snows are at your doorsteps.

This changing tone has taken place here among the people who best understand the effects of winter.

Imagine how the other 99% of your neighbors will react. They begin to panic-buy tomorrow.

The herd of the great unwashed will become skittish tonight when they begin to hear those first rustlings from the little people with the big heads that read them the news and play-act the weather on those millions of tv's.

The cities have a problem coming up. Whether or not and to what degree it happens is moot.

The shelves are going to begin going bare tomorrow.

So, panic before they do.

Vim Toot!

:lmao: Classic Vim Toot!

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i agree that the general tone of some is heightened and should be

but there will be no run on stores starting tommorrow. Mets are not going to be saying "2 feet run for the hills" i mean supermarkets will be open next weekend

i think they will just really be adamant about taking weight off the roofs....THAT iS the real concern.

Sez he serenely...

Clearly you are well stocked with the three survival staples: Bread, milk & bumwad.

You just get in from shopping?

Vim Toot!

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I keep seeing folks mention that the NAM was the first to latch onto the two piece aspect of the last event, which is true, but what they fail to mention is that it also tried to whiff most of us....which was not at all correct.

Couple that with the bias of the NAM to under do WAA in swfes and presto.

The NAM is probably sniffing out some what of a trend, but it's nothing that we didn't already expect....the snow\sleet line will end up the pike and not rt 2.

I don't even think that this forecast is that difficult....I'm not saying that the NAM is useless, I believe that it has value if you view it as another ensemble member and in so doing it should make folks n of the pike feel even more comfy....I mean, I'd rather see the NAM do that, then send sleet to Concord, NH.

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Essentials to the synoptics can boil down to two glaringly unavoidable circumstances for me:

1) Fresh polar-arctic hybrid air mass loading into the lower tropospheric thickness' off the outflow from a robust enough E Ontario anticyclone.

2) Additionally, there is a strong lateral confluence in the orientation of two converging westerly cores: one from central Canada around SPV circulation, is impinging on the wrap around circulation from the transient SW Conus trough.

1+2 = cold result.

The thermal gradient will be extreme roughly LI or LI Sound... Suspect a west east moderate band of snow on Tuesday deposes somewhere in the 4-6" range... Then we stay cloudy ...maybe a shot of sun very early Wednesday before rapid deterioration sets in. Route 2 (Mohawk Trail) in Mass to about RUT-MHT-PWM looks to jackpot snow somewhere in there, heaviest south. There will be a very tight gradient of mix where there is snow fighting IP in west east oriented band, and an abrupt introducition of ZR in CT/RI - that is the general overview of how I see P-Type in this.

Snow amounts on the latter system is very difficult with that, because just about every guidance has a different idea on QPF totals. I rather like the NAM in this, however, because it is the most consistent, as well, all the player are squarely in the NAM's sounding domain. I suspect a primary gets to the latitude of Dayton Ohio ...somewhere eastern IL or in IN or OH, then confluence and arctic viscosity work together to drill it all east under the latitude of SNE - effectively keeping the west -east orient p-type transition zone locked... Everyone ends as light snow early Thursday.

Signal is still there for additional storminess over late next weekend but we let's take this one at a time.

This.

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I not sure how young or older the group is on this weather board but, if this situation comes to be, there will be people that haven't seen depths on the ground from old and new snow either since post Blizzard of 1978, Vietnam era Big snow of 1969 or the Great Snow of 1717.

Going out on a limb here, but I guarantee no one here has seen snow depths like 1717. <_<

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Some of these AFDs out there are impressive ...

A HIGH IMPACT MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT A LARGE PORTION OF THE

CENTRAL UNITED STATES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TRAVEL AND COMMERCE

MAY BE SEVERELY IMPACTED WITH SOME ROADS POTENTIALLY BECOMING

IMPASSIBLE.

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BOX AFD 6:25pm... looks to stay with the Euro solution for now...Note the amusing perils of dictating: CO (for county) becomes Colorado:

Long term /Tuesday morning through Saturday night/... Model solutions exhibiting fairly decent run-to-run consistency with slight variances in atmos thermal profiles and positioning of key features in the mass fields...as well as handling a synoptic disturbance across the western Hudson Bay region which may play a substantial role in regards to the cold air in wake of the system. Overall from the evaluations...the European model (ecmwf) has remained the most consistent and followed it closely when considering the forecast.

One point is Worth noting that supports the present forecast solution below...both nao/ao have transitioned into a positive phase with pna falling into a negative phase. Such indicies indicate less blocking across the North-Atlantic thus less trough-ing across the northestern Continental U.S....warming across the southern and southeastern Continental U.S....and more pronounced SW flow at the upper levels allowing warmer air from Gulf coastal regions to stream northward.

Amnts and totals are uncertain as of now...the track of the system will mean everything...but putting it all together the best snow accums appear to reside along and north of a line from northern Hampshire Colorado Massachusetts into northern Essex Colorado Massachusetts...with higher amnts the further north you go into New England. Lesser amnts extend south of the line to the shore...decreasing as you go. Aside from the snow the bigger issue is the icing potential which looks very significant for interior portions of the coastal plain into the Worcester Hills and central and southern Berkshire region...but uncertainty lies in the thermal profile of the associated system and whether it will be a mainly sleet or freeze rain event. Nevertheless ice accumulate can be anticipated for the aforementioned region.

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Going out on a limb here, but I guarantee no one here has seen snow depths like 1717. dry.gif

I never said that they were going to be exactly like 1717, I said they would approach that. Think about it, You already have 1-3' feet on the ground now. After '78 and '69 there was 2-4' Feet. 1717 was 3'-5' feet. Again I never said exactly but close if this whole week, not just Tuesday / Wednesday but through Sunday in early February would be close. So it isn't that impossible at this stage of the game here in SNE.

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I keep seeing folks mention that the NAM was the first to latch onto the two piece aspect of the last event, which is true, but what they fail to mention is that it also tried to whiff most of us....which was not at all correct.

Couple that with the bias of the NAM to under do WAA in swfes and presto.

The NAM is probably sniffing out some what of a trend, but it's nothing that we didn't already expect....the snow\sleet line will end up the pike and not rt 2.

I don't even think that this forecast is that difficult....I'm not saying that the NAM is useless, I believe that it has value if you view it as another ensemble member and in so doing it should make folks n of the pike feel even more comfy....I mean, I'd rather see the NAM do that, then send sleet to Concord, NH.

Wouldn't it be something if we stayed all snow for this event?

I'd like that.

I'll pay "serious attention" to this storm for tomorrow; for today, the 18z American models looked colder and I liked it.

Zeus Toot!

(this means I just farted)

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