CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Nice, 06z GFS colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Molto Bene 6z and 12z NAM would both be <12" snow for PVD atop a few hours of sleet throughout. BDL probably all snow. Sets up a nice CF right along the immediate south coast that has a nice gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Ice amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Molto Bene Continuano ad arrivare! "Keep Coming!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Precip gets chewed up between here and NNW New York... Not like it was on the 0z... Expect the wobbles and weebles, the right solution is somewhere in there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 gfs looks colder!! Thats an understatement...at 54 hours its around 3C cooler at 850 for most areas from NYC to MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Snows right into 12z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS gives me12-15 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 SnowGoose said it in the NYC thread, but why is it that these 6/18z runs seem to come in cooler? Not saying they are less accurate, but there has been a difference... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Ice amounts Ice ice baby seems to be more sleet now where that is painted and new GFS says more snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Continuano ad arrivare! Neva pesante pesante "Keep Coming!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 SnowGoose said it in the NYC thread, but why is it that these 6/18z runs seem to come in cooler? Not saying they are less accurate, but there has been a difference... I'd guess for some reason the off hour runs have a tendency to underdo the WAA more so than the 12 and 00 runs which as we know almost always underdo it anyway themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Not enough meridonal flow for the weekends system to catch it seems. (OT) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Nice to see the Euro come in colder by a big margin. It's amazing but this year the long term (beyond 60 hours) NAM has led the way multiple times. Let's see if it verifies that way this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Come si pensava! CSP FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 SnowGoose said it in the NYC thread, but why is it that these 6/18z runs seem to come in cooler? Not saying they are less accurate, but there has been a difference... It'll be interesting to see if 12z goes back to a warmer solution. Euro has been fairly steady, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Nice to see the Euro come in colder by a big margin. It's amazing but this year the long term (beyond 60 hours) NAM has led the way multiple times. Let's see if it verifies that way this event. It appears as if I woke up earlier to a dramatically different storm for much of Connecticut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It'll be interesting to see if 12z goes back to a warmer solution. Euro has been fairly steady, no? Euro is much colder 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It'll be interesting to see if 12z goes back to a warmer solution. Euro has been fairly steady, no? Apparently, it's cooled some. A few folks (messenger, and others) had suggested the off hour NAM/GFS would run a lot colder, the milder on the main runs though with a somewhat cooler look than the prior main run. A two-steps up, one step back approach. So like you said, let's see what the 12z run has in store. Good htings all around though. 12+ coming. I might end up eating crow on my thought of the CT ice storm. I think Pete was premature in making a "final call" yesterday. He'd undoubtedly would want to raise his floor to about 10" or more I think. 14.1/6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Euro is much colder 0Z. Ok, yup, just read that discussion. Sounds good then for those skating on the thin ice, so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Why has BOX kept the NH zones outs of the watch attm? Maybe giving them a separate wording? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Why has BOX kept the NH zones outs of the watch attm? Maybe giving them a separate wording? http://www.erh.noaa....gcriteria.shtml I think we are in good shape (rt 2 north), however the slight but consistent south trends across the board are definitely worrisome as far as coming closer to max totals, rather than a nice but nothing spectacular 8-12" event. Ratos may help as in past storms, where qpf was quite a bit lower here, the snowpack will not be as solid as the Mass pike and south areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Why has BOX kept the NH zones outs of the watch attm? Maybe giving them a separate wording? Good question. I'm guessing the threshold is higher there and the big part of the event is still Wed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Were the Euro ensembles also colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Good question. I'm guessing the threshold is higher there and the big part of the event is still Wed? Correct. They mention in the AFD that precip from batch 1 is not to advisory level in NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Well it looks like we're honing in on an all snow scenario for most of interior SNE. The cold /snowy trend certainly continued overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 http://www.erh.noaa....gcriteria.shtml I think we are in good shape (rt 2 north), however the slight but consistent south trends across the board are definitely worrisome as far as coming closer to max totals, rather than a nice but nothing spectacular 8-12" event. Ratos may help as in past storms, where qpf was quite a bit lower here, the snowpack will not be as solid as the Mass pike and south areas. I'm not sure that extra inch over 24 hours would merit exclusion--especially since we're talking "watch" and the confidence level has to be quite high. I wonder if VT has the same criteria as they've been hoisted there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It's not as expansive, regardless of where you are....but it's better for CT. This run keeps Kav all snow and maybe gets a few pings to HFD. Hello Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I sense a rather large AWT coming within the hour! LOL...I decided no AWT's this morning.. I think things speak for themselves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Well it looks like we're honing in on an all snow scenario for most of interior SNE. The cold /snowy trend certainly continued overnight. Interestingly, the zfp even for here in western Franklin has a sleet taint on Wednesday. BOX is sticking with a mix scenario in their AFD. Nice to see 4-6" in the official forecast for NW areas from the appetizer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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