dendrite Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 jma 72hr qpf is very similar to the ec 72hr. so if youre wondering what the ec has here you go... http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_SFC_ACCUM-PRECIP_72HR.gif the exception is the ec is more paltry in S PA/S NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 weekend storm ots....ni-night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 A met may be able to clear this up better than I can. Its not just the height of the warm layer (although that definitely matters), but also the temperature at the surface. I haven't checked out the soundings, but it seems like boundary temps are going to be 24-27 in central CT where you are, which makes IP really hard to imagine, even with a relatively low warm layer. Well yes, you are correct in a sense that sfc temps can play a huge role, I did not mention that. However, the role will virtually impact the potential for accretion...if your sfc temps are in the 26-29F range with ZR falling chances are it's going to accumulate...if certainly can ZR with temps much lower than that at the sfc but this depends on what's going on aloft. At the same time it can virtually IP even with temps in the teens...happened here Feb '07...like 13F or 17F or something like that here and it was IP'ing like a you know what. What happens upstairs has a good deal of say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Ratios from the pre-event could certainly be 15-1 from here eastward toward southern NH...... so a good 4-6" maybe . Of course the models keep shifting that around a bit each run. weekend storm ots....ni-night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Good,good. Seems like everything is trending nicely.Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I don't think the weekend low goes out to sea.... It's destiny. + the GFS is trending closer. Good,good. Seems like everything is trending nicely.Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I don't think the weekend low goes out to sea.... It's destiny. + the GFS is trending closer. OTS not allowed, snow gets snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Are the 6z NAM/GFS in yet? OTS not allowed, snow gets snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Are the 6z NAM/GFS in yet? NAM is just about to start..GFS doesn't start til about 4:45 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Allright I guess I'll nap till then. It's weird... local stations (Barry Burbank for instance) just said 14" of snow for Boston. Accuweather says 5" to rain. I just want consistency for once lol. I'll probably just wait to hear what Matt Noyes has to say. He's been spot on this winter. NAM is just about to start..GFS doesn't start til about 4:45 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Allright I guess I'll nap till then. It's weird... local stations (Barry Burbank for instance) just said 14" of snow for Boston. Accuweather says 5" to rain. I just want consistency for once lol. I'll probably just wait to hear what Matt Noyes has to say. He's been spot on this winter. I'm glad I'm not a meteorologist in the Boston area, seems like there's a very fine line there during SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Allright I guess I'll nap till then. It's weird... local stations (Barry Burbank for instance) just said 14" of snow for Boston. Accuweather says 5" to rain. I just want consistency for once lol. I'll probably just wait to hear what Matt Noyes has to say. He's been spot on this winter. Never listen to or read anything Accuweather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Allright I guess I'll nap till then. It's weird... local stations (Barry Burbank for instance) just said 14" of snow for Boston. Accuweather says 5" to rain. I just want consistency for once lol. I'll probably just wait to hear what Matt Noyes has to say. He's been spot on this winter. Don't listen to Accuweather, they couldn't find their butt with both hands and a gps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Appetizer less impressive on the NAM, this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Appetizer less impressive on the NAM, this run. Depends on where you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Depends on where you are. It's not as expansive, regardless of where you are....but it's better for CT. This run keeps Kav all snow and maybe gets a few pings to HFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It's not as expansive, regardless of where you are. This run keeps Kav all snow and maybe gets a few pings to HFD. My QPF increased, it's colder, interesting run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 My QPF increased, it's colder, interesting run. What threw me off is the total QPF is the same up here, but it just bumped up over you guys....maybe you jackpot again, who knows....would fit the seasonal trend, but I'll stick with my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Great run for everyone.....colder for you CT guys with more QPF, without sacraficing anything up here...still 1.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Upton for SCT guys ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY. * HAZARDS...SNOW TUESDAY...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION...AND UP TO A HALF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. * TIMING...SNOW BEGINS AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET CONTINUES MUCH OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS TRAVEL. ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD KNOCK DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Box LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS VARY FROM 0.25 TO 0.40 INCH ON THE 00Z GFS AND 0.30 TO 0.50 INCH ACCORDING TO THE 00Z NAM. GENERALLY LOOKING AT A 12-15 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO WHICH SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD 3 TO 6 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA. BEST LIFT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOON AFTER 00Z BUT PICK UP AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. PER COLLABORATION WITH UPSTREAM OFFICES AND BASED ON MEETING WINTER WEATHER CRITERIA...HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...VERSUS AN ADVISORY TUESDAY AND WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY...AS THE LULL IN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF. THE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED NORTH INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS AFTERNOON...GIVEN CRITERIA THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET THERE UNTIL LATE 4TH OR 5TH PERIOD. WILL HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL EFFECTS AND NOTE IMPACTS OF THIS TWO PART SYSTEM IN THE WATCH STATEMENT. THE WATCH MAY BE EXPANDED CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST AS WELL...ALTHOUGH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 So jealous of you guys...Thinking I have about 61-62" at home so far. That 15-20" graphic on WHDH is just too impressive, esp. with the pictures my mom uploaded to fb...there is a ridiculous amount of snow on the ground. WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Me gusta La model trends from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Upton hitting it hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Me gusta La model trends from last night. Hopefully just a hiccup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Me gusta La model trends from last night. Molto Bene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 gfs looks colder!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Sort of absurd having OKX forecasting 8-10" along the immediate S CT coastline and then see the BOX watch map Though it's appreciate to see BOX now base their watch zones off PVD's characteristically low accumulation totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I sense a rather large AWT coming within the hour! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 yuck, at least we're still a couple days away from the main event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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