weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Saving grace would be that some snow and sleet should preceed it. It will have it's pros and cons Pros being the snow/sleet will coat the ground some and the cons being if the snow is wet enough it will stick to tree limbs and power lines so the freezing rain will further add to the weight which could cause downed limbs and widespread power outages...not to mention the extra weight on any roofs that haven't been cleared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The former, by far. Agreed, with one caveat. Around here, freezing rain frequently falls with temps right near freezing, and in those cases, might not really build up on road surfaces. But with temps well below freezing, as currently modeled, freezing rain can be very treacherous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 the doc is out to 42hr...i can wait a few minutes through d4 At least your be going to bed with heavy, heavy snow thoughts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm positive that it's gonna be a hair N and warmer....won't matter for you, but that is crucial for me. i think it will hit a brick wall. i wouldn't worry too much if i was you. now that i say that we'll see the primary go into the st lawrence like LC said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I dont get why it would be freezing rain, and not snow, if the temperatures are below freezing? What causes that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 0.25-0.50" from me to all of SNE for part 1 through 54hr. ec is cold for part 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I dont get why it would be freezing rain, and not snow, if the temperatures are below freezing? What causes that? basically to put it simply there's different levels of the atmosphere which can either be warmer or colder than one another. In this case the surface will be colder and air aloft will be warmer, causing the "snow" to melt into rain higher in the atmosphere and hit the freezing surface causing it to freeze on contact. Basically a warm layer a few thousand feet up is gonna say FU and cause an ice storm...probably a big one at that for someone hopefully someone like weatherwiz or coastalwx or someone else online can help to explain it to you a little further also. Those guys are all pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm positive that it's gonna be a hair N and warmer....won't matter for you, but that is crucial for me. May have been wrong.....PV is a bit further east and know heights are lower than 12z....I'm just gonna shut up and let it play out...to tough to extrapolate when differences are so minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 i think it will hit a brick wall. i wouldn't worry too much if i was you. now that i say that we'll see the primary go into the st lawrence like LC said. Yea...I agree, now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I dont get why it would be freezing rain, and not snow, if the temperatures are below freezing? What causes that? warmer temps aloft...snow melts into rain and then refreezes when it makes contact with the below freezing surface. sleet refreezes into an ice pellet before hitting the ground. for all intents and purposes you need the whole column below freezing for snow to reach the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I dont get why it would be freezing rain, and not snow, if the temperatures are below freezing? What causes that? Freezing rain falls when there is a shallow cold layer at the surface that causes rain to freeze on contact. If the cold layer is thick enough for the droplets to refreeze while airborne, it falls as ice pelets (sleet). If the whole column is below freezing, the crystals never melt and fall as snow. Edit: Dendrite types faster. Edit 2: NW Connecticut, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I dont get why it would be freezing rain, and not snow, if the temperatures are below freezing? What causes that? There is going to potentially be a punch of warm air aloft...somewhere just below 700mb down to around 850mb...then below 850mb things will remian below freezing so as the precip falls through the warm layer it melts to rain depending on how warm the temps are in this layer, once it gets to the sfc where we are well below-freezing the rain freezes instantly and we get freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 May have been wrong.....PV is a bit further east and know heights are lower than 12z....I'm just gonna shut up and let it play out...to tough to extrapolate when differences are so minute. im a fan of doing that anyway...it's kind of annoying to have 10 posts from 10 different people in a 2 minute span saying things ranging from "looks warmer" to "OMG huge hit 18" for everyone". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 By 66 hrs it has become apparent that the SW has been involved in a high speed MV accident with the PV and it didn't win. Colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 basically to put it simply there's different levels of the atmosphere which can either be warmer or colder than one another. In this case the surface will be colder and air aloft will be warmer, causing the "snow" to melt into rain higher in the atmosphere and hit the freezing surface causing it to freeze on contact. Basically a warm layer a few thousand feet up is gonna say FU and cause an ice storm...probably a big one at that for someone hopefully someone like weatherwiz or coastalwx or someone else online can help to explain it to you a little further also. Those guys are all pretty good. Flashbacks of November 2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 basically to put it simply there's different levels of the atmosphere which can either be warmer or colder than one another. In this case the surface will be colder and air aloft will be warmer, causing the "snow" to melt into rain higher in the atmosphere and hit the freezing surface causing it to freeze on contact. Basically a warm layer a few thousand feet up is gonna say FU and cause an ice storm...probably a big one at that for someone hopefully someone like weatherwiz or coastalwx or someone else online can help to explain it to you a little further also. Those guys are all pretty good. Thanks alot! From the looks of it, theres a chance my area might be one of those in for a "big" ice storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 north of the pike appears to be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Freezing rain falls when there is a shallow cold layer at the surface that causes rain to freeze on contact. If the cold layer is thick enough for the droplets to refreeze while airborne, it falls as ice pelets (sleet). If the whole column is below freezing, the crystals never melt and fall as snow. Edit: NW CONNECTICUT types faster. there ya go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 im a fan of doing that anyway...it's kind of annoying to have 10 posts from 10 different people in a 2 minute span saying things ranging from "looks warmer" to "OMG huge hit 18" for everyone". Well, heights started out higher and I checked the PV and there were no diffs with it.....but things changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I dont get why it would be freezing rain, and not snow, if the temperatures are below freezing? What causes that? 1000 ft above your head it's 36 degrees due to southwest flow bringing in warm moist air but the flow at the surface from the north (arctic HP) locks in the temps near the surface. has to do with the position of the hp and the terrain - go read the last 2 pages it's explained pretty well by dendrite. If that doesn't make sense then check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Here is the GFS HFD sounding at 72 HR...notice the warm layer between about 800-950mb...then temps go well below-freezing below that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Flashbacks of November 2002. literally one of the best weeks of my life. I've never seen anything that amazing weather wise. I think we got just over an inch of ice accretion at my house at 1k. Amazing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 north of the pike appears to be all snow. AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 5 answers in 5 minutes... you guys are friendly tonight. Thanks everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hows nne look on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 not as juicy as 12z. 1" line from SFM-1P1-to south of BTV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 literally one of the best weeks of my life. I've never seen anything that amazing weather wise. I think we got just over an inch of ice accretion at my house at 1k. Amazing... Wow that is incredible..then the wind complicated matters. I remember you were the only one to respond to my 8 year anniversary thread a couple months ago. Something about a transformer exploding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 WOW....sleet line is around the MA\CT border...even Kev is mainly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm just going to assume the Euro is an icing event down here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wow that is incredible..then the wind complicated matters. I remember you were the only one to respond to my 8 year anniversary thread a couple months ago. Something about a transformer exploding? standin on my gradmas porch (you told me that it'd last foooreeeverrr) ok sorry about the lame reference but yeah, standing on my grandmas porch. Fire crews came to investigate some burning wires. Fire reaches transformer box. Explosion. Firefighters and trucks run away...me and my other teenage cousins high five. naivety lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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