40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 very possible. Very tough to get prolonged icing with winds screaming off the water even if theres cold air in place. I can see KGON hitting 35, KHVN 33 while KBDL barely gets to 25-26...happens all the time. Not familiar with your climo down there, but that sounds like a reasonable assesment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Not familiar with your climo down there, but that sounds like a reasonable assesment. He makes a great point...also we have to remember this appears as it will be occurring mostly during the day hours as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Not familiar with your climo down there, but that sounds like a reasonable assesment. thanks. yeah, SE CT always has a tough time holding surface temps <32F when there's a sw flow off the LI sound and 850s between +2C and +4C...SE CT is basically equivilant to NE coastal Plymouth county in my book during the winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Not familiar with your climo down there, but that sounds like a reasonable assesment. Yeah. What I learned living on the CP was never expect prolonged zr or ip. Its always rn or sn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 He makes a great point...also we have to remember this appears as it will be occurring mostly during the day hours as well. yeah Wiz, last ice storm you guys had, my girlfriends dad drove from Old Saybrook,CT to hartford for work, and it was 38 down there and by the time he got to Middletown, everything was covered in ice and it was 30 by the time he got to work. Crazy stuff the LI Sound can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 yeah Wiz, last ice storm you guys had, my girlfriends dad drove from Old Saybrook,CT to hartford for work, and it was 38 down there and by the time he got to Middletown, everything was covered in ice and it was 30 by the time he got to work. Crazy stuff the LI Sound can do. Oh definitely and liked you mentioned as well, the LLJ is going to be screaming as well...so yeah, I wouldn't actually be surprised if coastal CT did changeover to all rain. This is just such a complicated call for here in interior CT...the impacts from the freezing rain could be very major but we have the chance to avoid serious issues depending on the amount of sleet we see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Oh definitely and liked you mentioned as well, the LLJ is going to be screaming as well...so yeah, I wouldn't actually be surprised if coastal CT did changeover to all rain. This is just such a complicated call for here in interior CT...the impacts from the freezing rain could be very major but we have the chance to avoid serious issues depending on the amount of sleet we see. Agree completely. Up in VT for school (about 12" here I'm thinking) so looking back at where I live in CT (lived there for 14 years), I really can't see the coast staying ZR long...I can see them sleeting for a while and maybe a brief hour or two of ZR before temp surpass 32. In your neck of the woods however, I can see BDL and the hills holding on for 2-4" of snow to a driving, paint peeling sleet. DXR-MMK-IJD might have some serious ZR problems (upwards of .75" if 850s jump quick). West Hartford could see a prolonged period of sleet and ZR, but I doubt anywhere north of DXR-Middletown-Willamantic changes to plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Speaking of roof collapse potential my friend's mom's boyfriend works at the XL Center and he said with the weight of the snow on the roof it has caved in 3''...I guess they are supposed to remove it within the next few days but I asked them if they were doing this on their facebook page...we don't need a repeat of '78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Agree completely. Up in VT for school (about 12" here I'm thinking) so looking back at where I live in CT (lived there for 14 years), I really can't see the coast staying ZR long...I can see them sleeting for a while and maybe a brief hour or two of ZR before temp surpass 32. In your neck of the woods however, I can see BDL and the hills holding on for 2-4" of snow to a driving, paint peeling sleet. DXR-MMK-IJD might have some serious ZR problems (upwards of .75" if 850s jump quick). West Hartford could see a prolonged period of sleet and ZR, but I doubt anywhere north of DXR-Middletown-Willamantic changes to plain rain. I'm real worried for this area, if we get 2-5'' or so from round one, round 2 should start off as some snow...maybe a few inches from that?? But, round 2's snow may be more wet and heavy in nature, a few inches of snow isn't much but when it's wet it's not fun, especially if sit sticks to tree limbs and power lines. If we see a prolonged period of freezing rain here...it's not going to be fun. I suspect we don't rise much higher than 28-29F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS Clown: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It's essentially a "big word" for cold, nne flow to the west of the coastal front from a high to the n of ME.... ageostrophic flow is basically non-geostrophic flow. I'll keep it simple, but geostrophic flow is the balance of the pressure gradient force and coriolis force. The higher you go up the wind tends to be more geostrophic and will follow the height contours with lower heights to the left of the flow in the NHEM. Near the sfc there are other components to the wind. Friction acts to turn the flow inward toward lower pressure and outward from high pressure. That's where the idea of winds flowing clockwise and out from highs and inward and counter-clockwise around lows comes from. We talk about the isallobaric component sometimes and that's with rapidly deepening lows. Where there are rapid pressure falls there is an ageostrophic circulation that develops in that direction. In these damming situations we get a NE flow around the high to our north and we get a cold dome that forms on the east slopes as the air ascends. Evaporative cooling enhances the damming as well. The confluence NE of Maine helps aid the surface ridging for us as well. This is probably garbled mess as I'm exhausted right now, but there you go. lolG'night for good guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yeah. What I learned living on the CP was never expect prolonged zr or ip. Its always rn or sn. Same, here....but go about 3-5 miles inland from me and you become much more susceptible to ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS Clown: This map essentially equals my forecast all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 72hr ukie.... primary pretty strong into lake erie, but you can see the ridging nosing southward through ENE on the E side of the mountains. The confluence aloft is what is aiding that high sitting NE of Maine. confluence aloft = sinking air/sfc high pressure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 UK looks like it would taint to about the NH border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Would the Ukie be more sleet or freezing rain down this way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Would the Ukie be more sleet or freezing rain down this way? I'm guessing the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm guessing the latter. Wonderful...starting to get an even more eerie feeling about this here, just waiting to see what the euro has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 i'm still awake and the doc is running. fml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Whens the last time Rhode Island's had a legit ice storm? It seems to me like its been YEARS.... Can't even remember one off the top of my head. Seems to be all rain or all snow here usuallly.. no ice for prolong amounts of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 i'm still awake and the doc is running. fml It's a hair more amped through hr 18... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 i'm still awake and the doc is running. fml At this rate you'll be up for the 6z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 At this rate you'll be up for the 6z runs my alarm is set for 5:25am. if i see the 6z runs it's going to be a long day with heavy, heavy coffee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This is obviously a question based on inexperience of dealing with these storms... but which one is more dangerous for driving... freezing rain? or sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This is obviously a question based on inexperience of dealing with these storms... but which one is more dangerous for driving... freezing rain? or sleet? The former, by far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 my alarm is set for 5:25am. if i see the 6z runs it's going to be a long day with heavy, heavy coffee I would just hit the power button on your computer right now...get the sleep in before the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This is obviously a question based on inexperience of dealing with these storms... but which one is more dangerous for driving... freezing rain? or sleet? Yeah freezing rain without question, with freezing rain your tires get virtually zero friction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The former, by far. Ahhh... so its looking like a bad situation in RI on Wednesday huh? Is it worse then snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yeah freezing rain without question, with freezing rain your tires get virtually zero friction. Saving grace would be that some snow and sleet should preceed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I would just hit the power button on your computer right now...get the sleep in before the event. the doc is out to 42hr...i can wait a few minutes through d4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.