CT Rain Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I-84 on north never goes above 32 at the surface. GFS=N CT icestorm. or sleetstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 or sleetstorm I just need 3 drops of fzra on mt tolland to win a 6 pack of smithwicks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I just need 3 drops of fzra on mt tolland to win a 6 pack of smithwicks. We may need someone else to drive out there during the peak of the warming for official confirmation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I just need 3 drops of fzra on mt tolland to win a 6 pack of smithwicks. You need one of ryan or will's referees up there to call the flip or no flip lol. Looks like it could go either way but I'm leaning towards him flipping and me pinging at some point, long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I just need 3 drops of fzra on mt tolland to win a 6 pack of smithwicks. Were getting buried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 We may need someone else to drive out there during the peak of the warming for official confirmation. ryan could rip off a news truck for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looks like sleet line gets to about Great Barrington (GBR) in these parts at 66 hours per the 00Z GFS. PSF on north stay all snow. Snow growth won't be all that good, so I'm not anticipating anything much better than 10:1 ratios. Regardless, both GFS and NAM give this area over 1.5" of QPF. Looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 That doesn't matter actually - amp to the hilt! So what - too much arctic air in place and held in by high up north. I think the arctic air and high will win in time. The thing is expectations are outpacing accurate guidance. If the gfs isn't able to drive a ml up towards niagra in subsequent runs it gets colder over you and i and in turn dynamics and the precip pattern would adjust too. I just can't imagine anyone is close to locking anything on storm 2 yet...nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Alright, now I'm really out. Can't wait to see what we get for final QPF printouts tomorrow and then it's off to the races on Tuesday. Enjoy the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I think the arctic air and high will win in time. The thing is expectations are outpacing accurate guidance. If the gfs isn't able to drive a ml up towards niagra in subsequent runs it gets colder over you and i and in turn dynamics and the precip pattern would adjust too. I just can't imagine anyone is close to locking anything on storm 2 yet...nuts I'm not sure I see this big trend south....the 12z GFS got the H85 line to the pike and the 00z run brings it to mby......the 00z EURO is pending, but it also trended a hair N at 12z. I think things will tick a bit s in the end, but probably not anything dramatic....won't be able to go too far to the s of the ike without contending with some sleet, when all is said and done...JMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Guys keep it on topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mica Vim Toot Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Guys keep it on topic. Done. Taken to "OFF TOPIC" forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GGEM is a bit colder than 12z, but that's not a surprise givend how warm the 12z run was. Ukie is coming out incomplete on plymouth state right now...maybe it will eventually come out, but its late or not all there tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 hard to say exactly w/ the B&W maps, but GGEM is only slightly south east of 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 lol thats what i thought! anyway I think the coast will go to sleet and freezing rain pretty quick on wed while inland conn has a prolonged period of sleet and freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GGEM is a bit colder than 12z, but that's not a surprise givend how warm the 12z run was. Ukie is coming out incomplete on plymouth state right now...maybe it will eventually come out, but its late or not all there tonight. Truer words never have been spoken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 24hr MEX snow cats up here are 4-8-8. I can't remember the last time I've seen them that robust for 3 straight days. G'luck with the EC guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 anyone have the GEFS...Huffman's site isn't loading tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looks like the UK has finally discontinued its worthless model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looks like the UK has finally discontinued its worthless model. It actually verifies second to only the EURO, but I'm convined it's value is derived from a mean of extreme runs at each end of the spectrum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS bufkit is a mess at BDL...snow then sleet then a brief period of freezing rain then ending as some snow. HFD it's snow then a prolonged period of freezing rain...even a changeover to plain rain...which I am not buying at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS bufkit is a mess at BDL...snow then sleet then a brief period of freezing rain then ending as some snow. HFD it's snow then a prolonged period of freezing rain...even a changeover to plain rain...which I am not buying at all. I wouldn't, either....the GFS won't pick up on the ageostrophic flow until the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It actually verifies second to only the EURO, but I'm convined it's value is derived from a mean of extreme runs at each end of the spectrum. There's something f'ed up with that. I don't recall the UK nailing a storm or being the solution of choice- once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I wouldn't, either....the GFS won't pick up on the ageostrophic flow until the last minute. I don't understand the process of ageo flow.. i know its a colder northerly wind that helps us stay as snow, but i dont understand why it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I wouldn't, either....the GFS won't pick up on the ageostrophic flow until the last minute. It even changes the CT coast over to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GGEM is a bit colder than 12z, but that's not a surprise givend how warm the 12z run was. Ukie is coming out incomplete on plymouth state right now...maybe it will eventually come out, but its late or not all there tonight. will, how does the ggem look for nne? 0z gfs-ish or trending south like the nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I don't understand the process of ageo flow.. i know its a colder northerly wind that helps us stay as snow, but i dont understand why it happens cold high to the north will keep the cold air locked in the lower levels just above the sfc plus we have a snowpack which will help with that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I don't understand the process of ageo flow.. i know its a colder northerly wind that helps us stay as snow, but i dont understand why it happens It's essentially a "big word" for cold, nne flow to the west of the coastal front from a high to the n of ME.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It even changes the CT coast over to rain very possible. Very tough to get prolonged icing with winds screaming off the water even if theres cold air in place. I can see KGON hitting 35, KHVN 33 while KBDL barely gets to 25-26...happens all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It's essentially a "big word" for cold, nne flow to the west of the coastal front from a high to the n of ME.... Allrighty. Thx to both you and wiz. Obviously pretty easy to understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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