dendrite Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 You folks really should not be considering the GFS run(s) in this because it notoriously flubs the bottom 200mb of troposphere in these arctic wedge deals and this run looks no different. Not the right synoptic evolution for the GFS wheelhouse - veritable tossing. It's a lot more amped up in the midwest though. Maybe it's wrong with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Preliminary thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 CT is just about all sleet to ice... not much snow I have an awful feeling in my stomach that we are going to end up with a good deal of ice here in CT...on top of what snow we get with the first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It actually tries to ping Ray for a time near 00z, but that may be because the good lift exists. Still seems mostly sn even near I-90. Keeps it all snow through 66h here...then it pings at the very end as thr dryslot approaches...then we go back to the fluff with the ULL/inverted trough stuff at the end. The amount of qpf is very impressive though. Its going to be like one of those 1994 storms...probably double digit snow that has a slight bit of sleet contamination in it making for just a total mess...bad for snow removal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wow - The 12z GEM was a DISASTER. 80% Rain, even into Vermont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Preliminary thoughts You forgot the 6-12" screwzone in Plymouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Keeps it all snow through 66h here...then it pings at the very end as thr dryslot approaches...then we go back to the fluff with the ULL/inverted trough stuff at the end. The amount of qpf is very impressive though. Its going to be like one of those 1994 storms...probably double digit snow that has a slight bit of sleet contamination in it making for just a total mess...bad for snow removal. Question is where does the ZR set up. I agree with your assessment for ORH/BOS. Gets more interesting down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I hate when uncle is late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I hate when uncle is late. He's probably smashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yeah pingers come in toward the end. Back to big ice for central CT lol Some of the cold near me is lift dependent. At this stage, it's almost pointless to argue where the 850 0C line is. I like some of the stuff I see, and the progs also try to scoot this out of sne pretty quickly. It's at that point the IP line moves north, but the snow is on the ground, after the big vv's leave. The lighter snows start up again after 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 It's a lot more amped up in the midwest though. Maybe it's wrong with that. That doesn't matter actually - amp to the hilt! So what - too much arctic air in place and held in by high up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wow - The 12z GEM was a DISASTER. 80% Rain, even into Vermont. That's not at all true...not even close. But welcome to 12 hours ago in any case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Some of the cold near me is lift dependent. At this stage, it's almost pointless to argue where the 850 0C line is. I like some of the stuff I see, and the progs also try to scoot this out of sne pretty quickly. It's at that point the IP line moves north, but the snow is on the ground, after the big vv's leave. The lighter snows start up again after 00z. yeah still looks like mainly snow (at least 90%) for BOS/ORH. I'm pulling my hair out over ZR vs PL here. Big difference lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wow - The 12z GEM was a DISASTER. 80% Rain, even into Vermont. Toss that....the model is inept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Bumped up qpf here to 1.25".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 You forgot the 6-12" screwzone in Plymouth. Sad but true. I'm hoping that with fairly uniform lift in the overrunning set up, we can pull off 12" here. It would be the highest I've seen. I got 8" with storm in early Dec 2009, and pretty much zilch the rest of the winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 That doesn't matter actually - amp to the hilt! So what - too much arctic air in place and held in by high up north. k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 That's not at all true...not even close. But welcome to 12 hours ago in any case. http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html -That's not a Disaster? And yes 12 hours ago haha. And yes Ray agree. I'll Play Bad Romance again to that. +Accordion. Can we have an Accordion Smily? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Gigantic swath of 1.25''+...My 8-14'' call blows. 10-16''. Goodnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Probably leaning towards 2-5'' for CT with round 1 for snowfall then 1-3'' with round 2 and going nuts over the sleet/freezing rain issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BDR Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I-84 on north never goes above 32 at the surface. GFS=N CT icestorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Keeps it all snow through 66h here...then it pings at the very end as thr dryslot approaches...then we go back to the fluff with the ULL/inverted trough stuff at the end. The amount of qpf is very impressive though. Its going to be like one of those 1994 storms...probably double digit snow that has a slight bit of sleet contamination in it making for just a total mess...bad for snow removal. It looks like a classic SWFE 6-9hr S+ job for some down here, with the main show. Maybe prolonged mdt snow for Brian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wow - The 12z GEM was a DISASTER. 80% Rain, even into Vermont. Can't read the damn thing but that's not at all what it looked like to me. Even their clown p-type thingy only flipped it to rain at the very end to the MA-NH border but I never trust that thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I like the GFS\EURO.....maybe corrected a tick s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Well here's to the euro looking good. GN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I-84 on north never goes above 32 at the surface. GFS=N CT icestorm. Potentially ugly around Hartford, maybe by 0Z the surface is cold enough for back to sleet, maybe, but potentially almost an inch of freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I like the GFS\EURO.....maybe corrected a tick s. I have low confidence of eclipsing 1/12 (17'') but moderate to high confidence of eclipsing a foot. Should easily be the second largest storm of the season here in any event, if not the first if we get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 D6. Snowpack builds....lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Potentially ugly around Hartford, maybe by 0Z the surface is cold enough for back to sleet, maybe, but potentially almost an inch of freezing rain. If that sounding were to verify here we'd be looking at some serious issues in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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