Arnold214 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The main blob seems to be in and out in about 9 hrs. The goodies before and after could add up. That's why I'd forecast more with this storm than say, 12/19/08. This is more juiced up and there may be a bit more to it on the bookends. 12/19/08 was a general 8-12" storm...and this one will probably trump that by 4-6" with locally higher amounts. Pending the sleet line of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 As Barry B. puts on his map potentially 12-18"... Tim Kelly seems a bit more aggressive, not sure of his thinking. Does he have a blog? The NAM Clowm is absurd.... looks like the path of a glacier bulldozing SW-NE instead of N-S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The main blob seems to be in and out in about 9 hrs. The goodies before and after could add up. Here is what I mean. The dryslot probably helps shut off the heavier stuff near the end of the aftn cummute. They'll be more lingering low level stuff from the lower 8000ft or so with erly flow. Also note the higher RH with the defornation area across NNE. It's the NAM, but I'm explaining what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 That's why I'd forecast more with this storm than say, 12/19/08. This is more juiced up and there may be a bit more to it on the bookends. 12/19/08 was a general 8-12" storm...and this one will probably trump that by 4-6" with locally higher amounts. I'd lump it all into the same storm if the lull is short, if we have any at all. Looks like we go pretty quickly from the pregame overrunning right to the main event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Like I told Will this afternoon, the setup Wed reminds me of 19-20 Dec 2008. I mean, not every intimate detail is a match but it's strikingly similar...just more juiced up. I loved that statement today, spent a good deal of time looking at it, man I wish we had Easterns DB, you had some great convos with Will on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I agree...it's very hard to get a foot and a half out of one storm without some sort of decent banding. SWFE's usually don't have sustained banding...more or less just a large blob of S/S+ that's in and out and doesn't last crazy long...much like 12/13/07 and 12/19/08. The difference here is that we have a bit of a front runner that I'm not sure should be lumped in with the bigger wave that comes after. The long duration is what may help it if you include the front runner event...if the main part though is as fast as the NAM shows, then we'd still probably have most amounts short of 18". I do like the amount of moisture in this and the thermal gradient to squeeze out most available moisture. The caveat in all of this is that it seems every system has managed to produce on its high end limit and perhaps this one will be no different. My comment was probably mostly in that the thread becomes degraded if people complain about a foot of snow in a SWFE, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I loved that statement today, spent a good deal of time looking at it, man I wish we had Easterns DB, you had some great convos with Will on that. I enjoyed all those convo's. We pretty much hashed out these SWFE's until our eyes bled. Made us better forecasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I would agree, but a couple of broadcast mets are putting that out there... Hoping for 10-13" total here between the two. WHDH has me 20-25" and NECN has me at 20"! I'm hoping to do that well, but I'm thinking 3-6" part 1 and 8-16" for part 2 is more realistic for mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM bufkit keeps BDL all snow...although barely while HFD is an awful mix of sleet/snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hee hee, hoo hoo, haa haa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 just got done reading 15 pages here for ct its getting warmer ? its colder no warmer . so less snow more sleet and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Overall not much waffling with the models, same general theme/ track with an edge to a colder solution. What an awesome Winter. Think snow.GN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 WHDH has me 20-25" and NECN has me at 20"! I'm hoping to do that well, but I'm thinking 3-6" part 1 and 8-16" for part 2 is more realistic for mby. I would never have the sack to throw 20-25" amounts up, at this moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I enjoyed all those convo's. We pretty much hashed out these SWFE's until our eyes bled. Made us better forecasters. Made me a better weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 just got done reading 15 pages here for ct its getting warmer ? its colder no warmer . so less snow more sleet and rain IT gon snow Tuesday after that just pay attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 just got done reading 15 pages here for ct its getting warmer ? its colder no warmer . so less snow more sleet and rain No warmer, more colder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmarkbuoy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hey guys...new to the board here. This is my first winter in new England. I am a time weather enthusiast from New jersey and this has just been magnificent to say the least. Anyway. I have been wondering in anyone know how history treat these types of events where there are two distinct areas of low pressure. Are they considered one storm. IN terms of KU ratings and snowfall depth, will the front end snow count towrds total accumlations when considering a NESIS score? Always wondered that. Even with a Miller B transfer to a low off the coast one oculd argue that there are technically two different storms. jp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM bufkit keeps BDL all snow...although barely while HFD is an awful mix of sleet/snow. Better than ice and plenty of time to move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Haha, yes! Epic clown map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Made me a better weenie Poop pipe unplugged yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 just got done reading 15 pages here for ct its getting warmer ? its colder no warmer . so less snow more sleet and rain I don't think we have to deal with rain but we certainly may have to deal with more in the way of sleet, round 1 should still be very nice to us, we should get a good 3-6'' from that, perhaps a few locations who slant their rulers get 7-9'')...round 2 is where we may have some big sleet issues and possibly not great snowgrowth or ratios, likely tohugh we should see a decent amount of QPF so this could make up somewhat. Going by the NAM I'd say for CT 3-6'' for round 1 and maybe the same for round 2. So it's not like were totally getting screwed here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hee hee, hoo hoo, haa haa lol there's Kevins 18-24 with 30" lollies... lalalalalock? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hey guys...new to the board here. This is my first winter in new England. I am a time weather enthusiast from New jersey and this has just been magnificent to say the least. Anyway. I have been wondering in anyone know how history treat these types of events where there are two distinct areas of low pressure. Are they considered one storm. IN terms of KU ratings and snowfall depth, will the front end snow count towrds total accumlations when considering a NESIS score? Always wondered that. Even with a Miller B transfer to a low off the coast one oculd argue that there are technically two different storms. jp It will be recorded as one event if there is no substantial lull or sunshine break I would imagine, it actually is one if you think about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 lol there's Kevins 18-24 with 30" lollies... lalalalalock? Thats snow on the ground not new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Better than ice and plenty of time to move. I agree, I'm down for a decent ice storm but if that were to happen now we'd be totally f'ed. Definitely still time for things to go colder...also time for them to go warmer lol...but I think at this point we'd see things start to go colder rather than any warmer than what the NAM has now IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I don't think we have to deal with rain but we certainly may have to deal with more in the way of sleet, round 1 should still be very nice to us, we should get a good 3-6'' from that, perhaps a few locations who slant their rulers get 7-9'')...round 2 is where we may have some big sleet issues and possibly not great snowgrowth or ratios, likely tohugh we should see a decent amount of QPF so this could make up somewhat. Going by the NAM I'd say for northern CT 3-6'' for round 1 and maybe the same for round 2. So it's not like were totally getting screwed here. fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Thats snow on the ground not new Right so you have to subtract whatever it says you have at the start... still neat to see. Those colors don't usually show up I think it dumps 18" around me... hard for me to see the gradient on my crap azz monitor (says I have 8" to start, 26" at the end?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Poop pipe unplugged yet? Yea got those vents cleaned out yesterday, looking better, the ice jam however is crazy thick like Garths only I cut a couple of drainage channels and attacked the hell out of the icicles and actually got two downspouts to drain some water in the sun today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I would never have the sack to throw 20-25" amounts up, at this moment. Snow growth isn't as good up here on the 00z NAM as I hoped. The max dendritic zone is still pretty much above the best omega. It gets alright when that heavy blob (I love when we all get scientific) moves through, but the -12C to -18C layer isn't very deep. We'll see, but these 20"+ totals this far out are a little crazy.CON MHT BED ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Thats snow on the ground not new Don't think for a minute that Kevin won't stick his ruler in a bit deeper than he should, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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